Wow, so Nissan is prepared to sacrifice market share for profit?
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EV Market Share
- Thread starter jhm
- Start date
mspohr
Well-Known Member
More importantly, short term profit at the cost of delaying/cancelling EVs long term profit.
We know that automakers are shortsighted, this puts Nissan into the "dead man walking" category.
Yep. I suppose shareholders will be happy to get capital returned. Then maybe they invest it in Tesla.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It looks like Nissan will be raising prices just as the Chinese automakers venture outside of China.
LEAF at just under 100k units per year worldwide can't be very profitable, if at all.
Isn't this why Renault want to control the alliance and merge with FCA? Because size matters in an world where every manufacturer must invest heavily in electrification, autonomous driving and shared mobility. Just to survive.
Ford and GM believe making trucks protect them from these 3 revolutions. PSA just announced they won't do FSD to try and delay the urgency to switch to EVs. The Germans are merging their efforts in FSD and shared mobility and ask Germany/UE for help fighting Tesla. Toyota blindly hopes their size will save them, somehow, that they can jump on the bandwagon after battery have become commodity.
Only VW realize they must seize the moment and copy Tesla ASAP.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Toyota is slowly wrapping their tentacles around Subaru and Mazda.
They also have a budding alliance with Suzuki Maruti. Because they don't have much of a presence in the soon to be most populous country on Earth.
In the future Nissan and Honda will be independent of Toyota. Every other Japanese OEM and Tier 1 supplier will be part of or tied to General Japanese Motors,i.e. too big to fail.
So, the carmaker with no electric cars and no plans for electric cars is trying to control two other automakers with no electric cars and no plans for electric cars?
Sorry, three?
Toyota's a dead man walking.
Does the Japanese government have the *ability* to bail them out? They might have to bailout the suppliers, whose products will be useful for electric cars -- but is it even going to be possible to bail out Toyota after ICE sales collapse? I mean, bailing out a company with collapsing sales numbers is *hard*.
One strategy that I would certainly expect to see in a contracting industry is to have a few ICE corporations grow by acquiring other ICE makers and divisions of automakers divesting ICE. This creates the illusion of growth and financial stability. It also allows other automakers to divest assets they don't really need. Ultimately this is black hole for all things ICE but capital can be shot out to investors along the way.
Toyota would make sense as such a consolidator. Japan will likely need hydrogen vehicles domestically since their economy will require importing massive quantities of renewable energy in any case. I don't think the export opportunities for hydrogen vehicles will ever compare to market share Toyota presently enjoys. So while a mostly domestic hydrogen vehicle business takes shape, Toyota can manage the wind down of ICE assets from across the industry. They'll be able to buy distressed assets cheap and extract residual value.
I also expect this sort of thing to happen within the oil industry, but that is for a different thread.
why Nissan's slow growth, partially because they went and partially spent money for 400,000 battery packs per year, only to be clobbered by fukushima tsunami disaster. Japan was rationing electricity, changing work days etc. pretty hard to sell an electric vehicle when everyone else is saying electricity is to be rationed.
And Renault/Nissan went all in on the 24kWh pack size, be it Renault Fluence ZE, Renault Zoe, Renault Kangoo ZE, Nissan LEAF, Nissan e NV200 van. Place your bets, some bets paid off, some didn't. (ironically non cooled cells is the default in China, so Nissan made the future correct bet there, even if it was an unAmerican bet)
and there is the regulatory credits, in markets where all makers are forced to EV, the unvolunatery sellers are forced to successfully compete against the voluntary sellers. Norway is representative of market share where the sellers are voluntary. California is representative of a market where sellers are compelled. Why Are Electric Vehicle Sales Booming in Atlanta?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Great Wall, Ford hitch up to burgeoning Chinese demand for pickup trucks | Reuters
Although overall demand in the world’s biggest auto market fell last year for the first time since the 1990s, pickup truck sales rose 10 percent to around 452,000 vehicles for a fourth straight year of growth, according to consultancy LMC Automotive.
That helped China overtake Canada as a pickup truck market, although it is far behind U.S. figures of just under 3 million. Like much of the world, the segment remains niche in China, accounting for less than 2 percent of overall sales. That contrasts with 16 percent for the United States and over 40 percent for Thailand.
“If China allows pickup trucks to enter central areas in more cities, the market could grow to 1 to 2 million units a year,” said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight.
Who knew that Thailand was the Texas of Asia?
Although overall demand in the world’s biggest auto market fell last year for the first time since the 1990s, pickup truck sales rose 10 percent to around 452,000 vehicles for a fourth straight year of growth, according to consultancy LMC Automotive.
That helped China overtake Canada as a pickup truck market, although it is far behind U.S. figures of just under 3 million. Like much of the world, the segment remains niche in China, accounting for less than 2 percent of overall sales. That contrasts with 16 percent for the United States and over 40 percent for Thailand.
“If China allows pickup trucks to enter central areas in more cities, the market could grow to 1 to 2 million units a year,” said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight.
Who knew that Thailand was the Texas of Asia?
Pickup trucks in Chona is a disturbing trend from a climate change point of view. I do hope that Tesla can bring a compelling pickup to market by 2022.
A key aspect of Tesla and EVs generally gaining market share is that all market segments must be addressed, especially the more profitable and faster growing segments. Tesla must address the truck market, not because it is all that large in the global market, but because it is serious growth segment in certain markets. It gives the EV-resistant automakers hope that they can still grow unchallenged by Tesla in certain segments. It also gives EV-resistant consumers an iconic symbol to rally behind. So I really would not like to see pickups in China gain this anti-EV cultural import. In the US we have a truck culture that will reject electric pickups even if they are clearly superior in every way, save that they don't consume massive quantities of diesel or gasoline. In other words, there is a mindset hat places extreme cultural value on the very act of consuming fuel and polluting the environment. A generation with this imprint will likely need to die off physically before the auto market is 100% EV. So if there is an opportunity to introduce compelling electric pickups in China before this takes root, I'd like to see Tesla take a stab at it. It's fine fine for people to want strong, capable and manly vehicles, and I have no doubt that a powerful electric drivetrain can deliver all that and more. But crossing over to the cultural view that guzzling motor fuel is an essential value is something to be avoided. Dare I say that Teala needs a powerful halo truck more at this point than it needs the Roadster?
A key aspect of Tesla and EVs generally gaining market share is that all market segments must be addressed, especially the more profitable and faster growing segments. Tesla must address the truck market, not because it is all that large in the global market, but because it is serious growth segment in certain markets. It gives the EV-resistant automakers hope that they can still grow unchallenged by Tesla in certain segments. It also gives EV-resistant consumers an iconic symbol to rally behind. So I really would not like to see pickups in China gain this anti-EV cultural import. In the US we have a truck culture that will reject electric pickups even if they are clearly superior in every way, save that they don't consume massive quantities of diesel or gasoline. In other words, there is a mindset hat places extreme cultural value on the very act of consuming fuel and polluting the environment. A generation with this imprint will likely need to die off physically before the auto market is 100% EV. So if there is an opportunity to introduce compelling electric pickups in China before this takes root, I'd like to see Tesla take a stab at it. It's fine fine for people to want strong, capable and manly vehicles, and I have no doubt that a powerful electric drivetrain can deliver all that and more. But crossing over to the cultural view that guzzling motor fuel is an essential value is something to be avoided. Dare I say that Teala needs a powerful halo truck more at this point than it needs the Roadster?
mspohr
Well-Known Member
My son in law is a committed truck person. Always had a truck. Ordered a Rivian.
Tesla needs a truck ASAP
Tesla needs a truck ASAP
I expect countries headed by smart leaders to quietly start planning a country-wise industrial/energy revolution and mobilize all their resources to get it started (people, capital, companies, infrastructure, etc).
At some point, companies like Toyota will be forced to switch to EVs and, if need be, the government will get other companies to help them do so (e.g Panasonic). This transition from fossil fuels to renewables is all fun and games until the country realize its future is at stake.
I expect the same from the UE, China and the US.
I wish Tesla would just acquire Rivian, market trucks under that name, and get on with manufacturing them at scale. I think that path would be quicker to market for Rivian and would substantially enhance the owner experience to have access to all Tesla charging infrastructure and sales and service networks. I don't see any other OEM being able to offer as much to Rivian and their customers. For Tesla, it would be a lower risk strategy to bring a pickup to market, that is, Rivian has already demonstrated that it has a design language that resonates with truck owners, but it is not clear if a pickup that looks like variation on the Model 3 will really communicate with this market. It would give Tesla two distinctive brands to market under with distinctive design language. This positions Tesla well to become EV maker with 20% of the market, since reaching higher levels of saturation with a single brand goes against consumer preference to have a more distinctive vehicle to identify with.
Gonna say I like the Blade Runner concept over the Mr Crab headlight one...
Rivian has no commonality with Tesla from a component point of view, so margins/ price point would not benefit from any of Tesla volumes.
CERAWEEK: The future of cars: EVs or oil?
There are some insights here into how Ford sees the future. The context is a big oil&gas conference, so there is a lot of lean toward BAU for ICE and endless growth in oil demand. Even so, the path ahead is autonomy and electricity.
There are some insights here into how Ford sees the future. The context is a big oil&gas conference, so there is a lot of lean toward BAU for ICE and endless growth in oil demand. Even so, the path ahead is autonomy and electricity.
I would expect an acquisition like this to be based on an exchange of stock, as it is with Maxwell. As for capital to build out a production line, China is pretty accommodative of GF3.
This can be remedied/redesigned before Rivian models go into production. Remember that design work of the model is only about 1 part of the R&D effort, while the design work of the manufacturing process is about 100 parts of the effort. This is why using existing components for which Tesla has already done the manufacturing work would be such a big boon to Rivian. It's not even clear whether Rivian has the engineering talent to do the manufacturing design work themselves; they are maybe where Tesla was before producing the Roadster. Tesla still struggle mightily to be an efficient manufacturer, but they have definitely made great strides since the Roadster days. So Rivian would really benefit from this hard won experience. Of course, this is an argument for Rivian to work with just about any other automaker too. But at least with Tesla, they would have a partner that is truly committed to EVs and innovation in EV manufacturing.
On the flip side, let's suppose that Rivian has some component ideas that are superior to what Tesla is currently doing. Gaining those innovations could improve other Tesla vehicles as well. Bringing together the best ideas and the best talent of both companies could be a real boost on both sides.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Rivian is planning on using 2170 cells.
That is the biggest commonality it could have.
No issue using the same motors and power electronics either.
Sure, from a getting cells from Panasonic point of view, they have commonalty. However, pack and drive unit changes would require mechanical changes. Electronics replacement would be a rip up of current architecture and instrument panel. From the manufacturing side, who knows how efficient the design is to assemble vs the 3 or such.
At that point, it seems like all Rivian brings is styling and stamping dies, if they already exist.
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