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EV Market Share

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    There is no ripping as Rivian is not currently in production.

    All that would be required are engineering adjustments to use Tesla motors,reduction gear, and power electronics.

    ICEv are complex BEV are simple.
     
  2. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Actually, the main thing they bring is talent.
     
  3. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    I'm still lost here, talent at what? If Tesla would bring it to market faster, then TElsa's manufacturing talent is higher. If Rivian would use Tesla drive units, packs, and electronics, then Tesla's electrical engineering is higher. If Rivian doesn't have a frame/ system that requires changing to mount different drive units/ pack, then they vehicle progress is not a great advantage to Tesla.

    Yes, Tesla could help Rivian out, which would be beneficial to Rivian, but I'm not seeing a great advantage to Tesla of doing so (outside of more vehicles out there), but I don't need to see it.
     
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  4. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    It is common for tech start ups to be acquired simply for the team of talent they have assembled. This team has demonstrated that they can develop a good concept this far. So not only are their individual who would make excellent recruiting candidates, but they work together as a team. So there is value in acquiring the team as a whole functioning unit along with whatever intellectual property they have developed together.

    In large measure, the EV race is a tech race. As such, all EV makers are competing to acquire the best talent. So any OEM looking to be a serious player in the EV space has got to be thinking about Rivian as a talent acquisition play. Put it this way, if you're Ford, would you want to see Rivian acquired by GM? Both companies could take Rivian into mass production of trucks, and upset the balance of market share between the two. Or how would GM and Ford feel about Tesla acquiring Rivian? That too could accelerate the upset of their shares in the truck market. The least disturbing option to Ford and GM would be for Rivian to just struggle on their own to become a competent manufacturer. In the interest of accelerating sustainable transport, Tesla should not let that be the case. Climate change does not give us another decade for Rivian to learn how to become a competent manufacturer on it own.
     
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  5. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  6. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    Something tells me they'll put the e208 and e2008 on display everywhere for greenwashing ("we're modern, we care, that's the future, think of us for you next purchase!") but still convince customers to prefer ICE versions for now (officially because "range anxiety and stuff" but actually because they still don't make profits on EVs).

    We're past compliance cars now, these are mostly "PR" EVs. Antisold but still promoted to let the press and public believe the company is doing something to make the switch to EV. The more they do this, the more people think EVs aren't good enough otherwise they are advertised everywhere but people don't buy them. Something is wrong with this concept, let's wait.
     
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  7. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    I know what you mean. I usually don't give any weight to car show fluff. Two things caught my attention here. 1) the number of models currently in production, and 2) the number of models set to go into production this year or next. The e208 and e2008 are to go into production this year. So if this is just fluff, it will be clear soon enough if they can't deliver this year. It should do them reputational damage if they are substantially late on this slate. So we'll see.

    What I don't like is when a company is float a car they won't bring to market 2024 or later. I think it is pure folly to think one knows what a competitive EV will look like in 2025. I have no assurance that the Models S or X will still be competitive that far out. Even the Model 3 could be long of tooth by then. But I do know that Tesla will seriously upgrade these lines or replace any of them with something radically superior. So any concept car floated to day could be made obsolete before it is ever put into production. So what matters most to me is what can be produced this year or the next.

    FWIW, my outlook is that EVs will have 20% to 30% of the auto market by 2025 and grabbing another 10% in the next year. So the question in 2025 will be about models that can be produced in very high volume, not some low volume darling. We are talking about an extra 10M EVs brought into production in 2026 incremental to what was produced in 2025. Show cars are not going to cut it.
     
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  8. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    That never happened for Audi, who announced Tesla killers for over a decade and yet aren't still selling them in meaningful volume. They're saving time, and it's worked pretty well so far.

    Only Tesla and VW intend to control the production of batteries. Where do other manufacturers plan to buy theirs? Do they expect China to sell cheap cells instead of selling finished EVs with higher profits?

    Let's see when Tesla announce its FG4 and how the Europeans react.
     
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  9. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean by "saving time" and "worked pretty well." Audi has a pretty lousy reputation for delivering on their EV hype.

    To hit 20% EV penetration in 2025, the industry will need about 2TWh of battery capacity. Most automakers are ceding this market to other companies. But I think the EV battery makers will be more profitable than those that merely assemble EVs. Battery makers that do not make EVs, however, may be at a bit of a disadvantage for not being able to create direct consumer demand for their product. So I am inclined to think that the integrated EV makers that make both battery and vehicle will be in the best position to grow rapidly and profitably. Several Chinese EV makers are integrated as of course Tesla is. But we may well see battery makers become integrated EV makers. For example, once the OEMs are sufficiently distressed by the EV transition, it may be fairly cheap for battery makers to acquire them. By 2025 EVs will be cheaper to make than ICEs. So ICE makers will be suffering serious margin compression on ICE. The real heavy weights in making batteries will either by selling packs at a premium to distressed ICE makers trying to transition or buying them out when they fail. So your questions are spot on. Those that are in a position to make money through the transition will be propelling the transition.
     
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  10. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    I just read that Audi is scaling back production of the eTron (name?) because of batteries. They can only get half the batteries they need for their modest production goal.
     
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  11. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    You've got a much better and complete explanation - the short hand for this (for the rest of those playing along at home) is acquihire.
    Acqui-hiring - Wikipedia
     
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  12. renim

    renim Active Member

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    [QUOTE="jhm, post: 3523262, member: 25323".... I think it is pure folly to think one knows what a competitive EV will look like in 2025......[/QUOTE]

    I think we have some pretty good ideas, it will approximate (by weight and length, if not height) what people buy today, but have some method of electricity transmission to the car, (perhaps induction, perhaps plug)

    Japan top 10 cars 2018,
    upload_2019-4-1_11-3-23.png
    first 4 cars are kei cars, (ie typically 660cc, 3cyl)
    no5 is nissan note with 1.2l, 3cl. generally full serial HEV (ie no mechaincal connection between engine and wheels)

    it is unlikely that the best selling car in 2025 in Japan will be larger than a Nissan Note (except in height), and the Note is a smaller car then the LEAF.



    USA top 5 cars 2018
    upload_2019-4-1_11-21-23.png
    it is unlikely that the best selling car in 2025 in USA will be smaller Toyota RAV 4. and highly unlikely that it will be shorter than a RAV4.

    whatever we can conclude, there will not be any overlap in top selling car in 2025 between Japan and USA.
     

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  13. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    In terms of best sellling:
    Vehicle = car, truck, or SUV. However, car != truck != SUV.
     
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  14. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    I think we have some pretty good ideas, it will approximate (by weight and length, if not height) what people buy today, but have some method of electricity transmission to the car, (perhaps induction, perhaps plug)

    Japan top 10 cars 2018,
    View attachment 392326
    first 4 cars are kei cars, (ie typically 660cc, 3cyl)
    no5 is nissan note with 1.2l, 3cl. generally full serial HEV (ie no mechaincal connection between engine and wheels)

    it is unlikely that the best selling car in 2025 in Japan will be larger than a Nissan Note (except in height), and the Note is a smaller car then the LEAF.



    USA top 5 cars 2018
    View attachment 392331
    it is unlikely that the best selling car in 2025 in USA will be smaller Toyota RAV 4. and highly unlikely that it will be shorter than a RAV4.

    whatever we can conclude, there will not be any overlap in top selling car in 2025 between Japan and USA.[/QUOTE]
    Thanks for the effort, but I was not really thinking about the gross dimensions vehicles, but rather the EV and other technology needed to be competitive. For example, will an EV with a mere 500km range be competitive in 2025? I don't know. It depends on how quickly the tech advances and prices fall. If somehow 1000km range vehicles were available under $25k that charge at above 1MW, a Model 3 with 2019 pricing and range might be woefully inadequate. It was not that long ago with most OEMs thought a range of 250km would be quite adequate for an EV. But that was before the Model 3 came out. So the basic point is that no one really knows how quickly the field will advance. So the best strategy is to innovate faster than other competitors and not to wait for suppliers to deliver technology at a lower cost. In my view, this is primarily a technology race, as EV tech is still in at a very early stage of development.
     
  15. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Global EV Sales In February 2019: Over 110,000 At 1.9% Market Share

    Here's the latest global numbers. Apparently BYD had a pretty awesome January. Does anyone know why? I'm wondering if the Chinese New Year plays into this. In any case, BYD is leading 2019 to date by a substantial margin. I'm hoping that Tesla catches up soon. If Tesla hits 61k for Q1, will that be enough to catch BYD?

    [​IMG]
     
  16. guidooo

    guidooo Member

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    Think they do it to comply with the upcoming stricter emission regulations.

    Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger cars - Climate Action - European Commission
     
  17. renim

    renim Active Member

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    #177 renim, Apr 1, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
    BYD has a slew of new NEVs coming out this year. Some a refreshes with increased battery, but many are new new.

    82.8kWh Tang EV compare to a 24kWh Tang PHEV ?

    BYD Song MAX (van version of Song) EV compare to PHEV to ICE only?

    also, what is the effect of this
    China issues new NEV subsidy policy with higher tech thresholds, reduced subsidy amounts
    China issues new NEV subsidy policy with higher tech thresholds, reduced subsidy amounts

    as well as entry of the "reluctant" into the market, 2019 is 1st quota year in force, so VW, GM, etc, everybody will be mass selling,

    i don't think there will much profit for the NEV automakers, but very high market growth rates.
     
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  18. renim

    renim Active Member

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    range is NEDC
    upload_2019-4-2_8-57-35.png

    it also seems PHEV subsidies are cut in half. which is a pretty good result for the PHEVs, range is maintained starting at 50km, maxxing at 100km

    honestly, it feels to me, their government is maintaining subsidies on a monetary basis, its just twice as many vehicles will get half the subsidy each.
     
  19. renim

    renim Active Member

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    BYD is the second bar (583)
    upload_2019-4-2_9-10-35.png
     
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  20. RobPet

    RobPet Member

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    • Informative x 1

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