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EV Tax Credit

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Haven't heard much about the status of the EV Tax Credit lately? Realize that the Senate has it in their plan but when do you think we will know? I am deciding between a used S and a new Model 3 (first day res). If the tax credit goes I will most likely spring for the used Model S ;-)
 
I have 2 M3’s ordered (day 1 reservations due Dec - Feb according to the web site). With the federal and state incentives it’s basically easy for me to justify the purchase(s). If the credit goes away I will buy neither and may get a used a S instead, but that is not set in stone. There are LOTS of options for nice cars in the price range.

This uncertainty really is a pisser!
 
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We won't know what their plan is until it gets voted on. Even then, it could change. Some forum members have recently speculated that Congress could kill the tax credit sometime in 2018 and make it retroactive to January 1st. This certainly makes it difficult to plan an EV purchase.

If you absolutely must have the tax credit, buy something from inventory now. There are a number of inventory vehicles that represent a better value after tax credits than a well-optioned used Model S, including a few dozen rear-wheel-drive 75s.
 
We won't know what their plan is until it gets voted on. Even then, it could change. Some forum members have recently speculated that Congress could kill the tax credit sometime in 2018 and make it retroactive to January 1st. This certainly makes it difficult to plan an EV purchase.

If you absolutely must have the tax credit, buy something from inventory now. There are a number of inventory vehicles that represent a better value after tax credits than a well-optioned used Model S, including a few dozen rear-wheel-drive 75s.
Easier said than done since I need the full federal credit to convince my wife that a base 3 is a superior choice over a decently optioned Honda. We cannot afford an inventory S. Complicating matters (for me) is Honda's current holiday financing specials...

If the tax bill is successful this year, it's "Happy Honda Days" for us. Or, less happy Honda days if the tax bill succeeds sometime next year and the credit is killed and retroactively applied to all of 2018, thus meaning we wouldn't get the credit AND would have to buy a Honda without any special holiday incentives...
 
Easier said than done since I need the full federal credit to convince my wife that a base 3 is a superior choice over a decently optioned Honda. We cannot afford an inventory S. Complicating matters (for me) is Honda's current holiday financing specials...

If the tax bill is successful this year, it's "Happy Honda Days" for us. Or, less happy Honda days if the tax bill succeeds sometime next year and the credit is killed and retroactively applied to all of 2018, thus meaning we wouldn't get the credit AND would have to buy a Honda without any special holiday incentives...

I would be very surprised if the federal tax credit is even fully available by the time the base Model 3 is in production. I think it's very likely that Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles in Q1 2018, which would put the tax credit at 50% in Q3 and down to 25% in Q4.
 
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I would be very surprised if the federal tax credit is even fully available by the time the base Model 3 is in production. I think it's very likely that Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles in Q1 2018, which would put the tax credit at 50% in Q3 and down to 25% in Q4.
Well, since the model 3 FAQ says the base model will be available in early 2018, there should be plenty of opportunity for people to get the base model and the full credit before it expires at the end of June (assuming that that is when it expires).
 
Well, since the model 3 FAQ says the base model will be available in early 2018, there should be plenty of opportunity for people to get the base model and the full credit before it expires at the end of June (assuming that that is when it expires).

Sure, assuming the base model is on time. If it is, they'll still only be able to produce a fraction of the total number of reservations. I guess it all depends on where the OP is in line.
 
I would be very surprised if the federal tax credit is even fully available by the time the base Model 3 is in production. I think it's very likely that Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles in Q1 2018, which would put the tax credit at 50% in Q3 and down to 25% in Q4.

You are incorrect on the phaseout process. Quoting the IRS at Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

If Tesla hits 200,000 US sales during Q1 2018 (Jan 1, 2018 to Mar 31, 2018) as you propose;

- Full credit available until June 30, 2018
- 50% credit available July 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018
- 25% credit available January 1, 2019 through June 30, 2019
 
You are incorrect on the phaseout process. Quoting the IRS at Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service



If Tesla hits 200,000 US sales during Q1 2018 (Jan 1, 2018 to Mar 31, 2018) as you propose;

- Full credit available until June 30, 2018
- 50% credit available July 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018
- 25% credit available January 1, 2019 through June 30, 2019

D'oh! You're absolutely right. I knew that the phase-out was in two-quarter increments (I even looked it up to be sure), but somehow I got it in my head when typing that post that it dropped quarter by quarter. :oops:

50% would be available through the end of 2018 if Tesla hits 200K in Q1 and 25% through June 30, 2019.

Still, if Tesla hits 200K in Q1, I don't think there will be very many base configuration Model 3 buyers who will be able to take advantage of the full credit (compared to the current reservation list). Even at 5,000 vehicles per week from the start of 2018, we're only looking at 130,000 vehicles produced, with most (?) of those being long range variants.
 
The EV tax credit thing is FAR from over. While the senate version was said to have it, the house version does not. They will have to argue over the differences and ultimately reconcile by making changes to both bills. I personally fear that in that process, other sticking points will likely trump the EV credit (like SALT). The only chance that I think the EV tax credit has of being preserved is if everyone concerned continues to call their congress members until it is settled. Our congress must be convinced that we need/expect this of them, otherwise it will just become something that "they fought for, but ultimately could not get". The old adage "out of sight, out of mind" applies here.
 
Still, if Tesla hits 200K in Q1

I really think this is a big IF.

As of the end of 3Q17 Tesla is sitting at 146,566 vehicles sold. Depending on what kind of quarter you think 4Q will be and how fast Model 3 ramps, I suspect they will be between 160K and 165K by year-end.

With my assumed ramp and estimates for Model S & X sales, as a relatively optimistic estimate, I have them hitting 200K no sooner than March 15 (this assumes a Model 3 ramp of 2K/week at the beginning of 2018 to 5K/week by the first week of March). And if this is the case (and if the tax credit survives), there is no way that Tesla will cross the line in the last 2 weeks of a quarter. They will simply stop sales for 2 weeks, or alternatively they could stockpile 1000 Model 3's per week for 10 weeks and have them all ready to go on April 1st.

This is a tad bit tangential to the topic at hand, which is to discuss the future of the tax credit itself, but the topic keeps coming up, so I think I may start a new thread dedicated to discussing the ramp and the credit.
 
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Latest update both Bill will keep up to 10K property tax deduction but not state/local income tax deduction.

Giant middle finger to the majority blue states
Right you are! Here's what's in the Senate Republican tax bill

Eliminating the state and local tax deduction was met with strong opposition from House lawmakers in high-tax states and cities. So a concession was made in the House Republicans bill to restore an itemized deduction for property taxes up to $10,000.
 
Right you are! Here's what's in the Senate Republican tax bill

Eliminating the state and local tax deduction was met with strong opposition from House lawmakers in high-tax states and cities. So a concession was made in the House Republicans bill to restore an itemized deduction for property taxes up to $10,000.

Die, AMT, die. Nobody will miss you.
 
Easier said than done since I need the full federal credit to convince my wife that a base 3 is a superior choice over a decently optioned Honda. We cannot afford an inventory S. Complicating matters (for me) is Honda's current holiday financing specials...

If the tax bill is successful this year, it's "Happy Honda Days" for us. Or, less happy Honda days if the tax bill succeeds sometime next year and the credit is killed and retroactively applied to all of 2018, thus meaning we wouldn't get the credit AND would have to buy a Honda without any special holiday incentives...
I don’t know how much you drive each month but for me I commute 47 miles to and from work 5 days a week so a M3 is the same cost as a Honda Civic when gas and maintenance are factored in.
 
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