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Even Better Seeking Alpha Article!

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Cattledog, May 28, 2013.

  1. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    On Elon Musk And Tesla Motors: The Art Of Modern Warfare In A Noble Cause - Seeking Alpha

    You'll want a comfortable chair and an enjoyable beverage, because at somewhere around 8,400 words it reads like a PhD dissertation, but Seeking Alpha author Julian Cox has written a compelling novel that projects Tesla into its remarkable future. He puts into words (many) what we all have been feeling, whether your are a Tesla owner, TSLA owner, or interested in the advancement of humanity one electron at a time.
     
  2. stevezzzz

    stevezzzz R;SigS;P85D;SigX

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    I tried, really I did: but I can't force myself to read this, it's so poorly written. Since you did read it, Cattledog (way to take one for the team!), I hope you'll summarize his main points for us.
     
  3. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    The most important point that is made in the article is that Tesla is a green play that is actually better and cheaper than it's dirty ICE equivalent, which will be a powerful force to incentivize the transition away from carbon based fuels and will supercharge (pun intended) Tesla's profits.
     
  4. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    Yes it is the most brilliant, powerful and in-depth analysis so far for Tesla. Fellow TSLA longs and shorts, you don't want to miss this masterpiece.
     
  5. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    OK - need to attack it tomorrow night likely. Yes, long and complex sentence structures, but the base arguments are illuminating and comprehensive.
     
  6. Drax7

    Drax7 Active Member

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    Exceptional article, master plan for investing in this stock.
     
  7. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Wow, great article. Wonder what his user name is here on TMC, lol.

    - - - Updated - - -

    My only problem with it is that it appears to be over enthusiastic when it comes to likely Q2 sales results. Tesla likely will beat their guidance, but throwing out 6,750-10,000 sales is not helpful in terms of setting expectations.

    Beyond that, the most interesting part of it that I had not considered before was the off roading capabilities of the Model X. Over at nasaspaceflight.com we have lightheartedly discussed the suitability of the Model S as a moon buggy or Mars Rover in the ultimate off road challenge.

    But I had not connected the dots and considered the fact that the Model X platform could form the basis of an amazing off roading vehicle, with the literal capability to drive underwater. If not for the power requirements it would represent an astonishing military capability. Food for serious thought.
     
  8. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Enough with the Iron Man - Tony Stark - Elon references :)

    Really though, what a thought. The US Military have never been late to pick up on new and better technology though... But I guess it would require a fuel cell coupled with an electric drivetrain to really drive it home?
     
  9. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    JP incognito
     
  10. voidptr

    voidptr Member

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    I've said it on this board and elsewhere, it ought to be pretty obvious one of the not-exactly-hidden goals of Tesla is to have the technology and manufacturing capability for off-world vehicles ready when SpaceX starts putting manned missions on Mars.
     
  11. Soflason

    Soflason Member

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    Okay, that was certainly a long read and pretty choppy... felt like seven SA articles packed into one. I think he rushed to publish this piece as many of these ideas could have been better synthesized. BUT, nonetheless, he makes some absolutely fantastic points. Too many points to effectively summarize. But, one point really stood out to me.

    A big contention the naysayers/shorts seem to have is that ICE manufacturers (with their deep pockets) will catch up right away and Tesla will quickly lose it's competitive first-mover advantage. I see this narrative over and over again in numerous negative articles.

    He makes a VERY powerful rebuttal to this narrative - included an excerpt below:

    "At the outset, a small team [Tesla] with a new technology can be massively motivated to win early adopters representing less than 1% of the market of an incumbent technology. By way of illustration in the auto industry, 1% of the customers of a large ICE manufacturer is a very attractive win for a small newcomer. Conversely, for the large ICE manufacturer defending against the loss of that 1% of its customers by direct competition will cost far more than retaining those customers is worth. The ICE manufacturer simply cannot afford to build a great EV and declare with full force that EVs are now the way forward and ICE is old news with sufficient integrity to retain that 1%, because by doing so it risks alienating 99% of its customer base and destroying the economics of amortizing capital equipment for ICE production. Retaining 1% of its customers cannot foot the bill for the damage.

    What the ICE company will tend to do instead is half-hearted harassment in the 1% space: Hybrids.


    By the time the young EV company has won a meaningful quantity of customers away from the ICE manufacturer, for example 10%, the larger company is faced with losing money and market share rapidly while the small company has by then attained brand leadership in the new technology wave and is accelerating geometrically to becoming too expensive and too confident to be purchased. In a battle between a small money-making enterprise and a large money-losing enterprise, it is inevitable that market leader positions will be reversed with catastrophic consequences for the old incumbent.

    There are very few valid defenses against this formula."
     
  12. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    yes- and he also identified the ICE model is wrong all the way to sales channels relying on Dealerships etc. Tesla has a number of long term advantages - good article; I very much disagree with the timing of his geometry of sales though. He begins it now, calling for a huge increase in Q2 sales. I believe Elon is correctly holding those levels until efficiencies (that effect Margin) are complete.
     

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