Even more discussions about Model 3 and Tesla competition

[voip-ninja]

Issues that he had with the car, or just things I noticed?

Thanks for your pragmatic review.

There appear to be a fair number of common annoyances that early reservation owners are reporting which, to me, is quite surprising considering the car has been in the hands of friendly owners now for approaching 6 months... they seem to be quite far behind on the software piece.

My personal opinion is that Tesla's ability to get quality up in the next few months is going to make or break them as they transition on delivery from current/previous Tesla owners to the general public.

The general public who are shopping the $50K Tesla against similar cars from Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Lexus... they won't be of forgiving of wrinkles and blemishes as they are used to taking delivery of finished vehicles with few if any teething problems.

On the flip side Tesla has a pretty good track record of continuing to deliver improvements to their cars years after other automakers have thrown their cars on the scrap heap.

Tesla's window here is pretty slim. Late 2018 to mid 2019 we will see the first real serious competition showing up from other luxury auto makers.

 

[ölbrenner]

Tesla's window here is pretty slim. Late 2018 to mid 2019 we will see the first real serious competition showing up from other luxury auto makers.

Agree with the vast majority of your post.

But I think many people in this buying segment actually want a car they can travel in. If that is so, I don't think Tesla will have really serious competition until a supercharger like network exists for the other players.

I personally look only at PHEV's, or Tesla. I can run 100% on electricity during the work commute and errand shopping, and can also drive across the country in either. No other players can do that (unless you only want to travel 100-200 miles a day of course).

 

[voip-ninja]

Agree with the vast majority of your post.

But I think many people in this buying segment actually want a car they can travel in. If that is so, I don't think Tesla will have really serious competition until a supercharger like network exists for the other players.

I personally look only at PHEV's, or Tesla. I can run 100% on electricity during the work commute and errand shopping, and can also drive across the country in either. No other players can do that (unless you only want to travel 100-200 miles a day of course).

I think most have an ICE car they can use for trips but I might be wrong.

Range anxiety from the people I talk to consists of people worried they can’t drive 90 minutes away on the weekend then back again without a recharge.

LR M3 largely eliminates that concern.

 

[sweter]

My personal opinion is that Tesla's ability to get quality up in the next few months is going to make or break them as they transition on delivery from current/previous Tesla owners to the general public.

The general public who are shopping the $50K Tesla against similar cars from Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Lexus... they won't be of forgiving of wrinkles and blemishes as they are used to taking delivery of finished vehicles with few if any teething problems.

I wouldn't be so dramatic and say it's "make or break", definitely not in the timeframe you mention. Maybe in 2019 when "general public" rushes to get the car. 2018 orders will still be fulfilled to people who have reserved and put down $1k based on a 20-minute presentation online. They may not be previous owners, but majority are believers and enthusiasts just with smaller pockets. I think that majority will look favorably on the car and not complain (too much) about minor issues, many of which will be (hopefully) fixed by software updates.

 

[kbM3]

Tesla's window here is pretty slim. Late 2018 to mid 2019 we will see the first real serious competition showing up from other luxury auto makers.

Seriously?

I follow electric cars very closely. I’m not aware of a single Model 3 competitor even announced yet.

 

[ölbrenner]

LR M3 largely eliminates that concern.

My post was not directed at range anxiety, but being able to actually take real trips with the car.

But your quote illustrates the point I was trying to convey. Until competitor's EV's are able to take real world road trips, they won't really be competitive with Tesla at all imho. They won't be able to supplant an ICE vehicle like only a Tesla can.

The competitor's are years behind, my guess is at least 2025 until they have viable countrywide quick charge infrastructure in all major markets (aka supercharger network capability).

 

[voip-ninja]

Seriously?

I follow electric cars very closely. I’m not aware of a single Model 3 competitor even announced yet.

You must not follow too closely. VW/Audi, Volvo and BMW all have competition coming soon.

 

[SteveG3]

You must not follow too closely. VW/Audi, Volvo and BMW all have competition coming soon.

I agree with kbM3. It can get confusing because there are tons of articles attempting to frame things as if Tesla were about to be hit with a tidal wave of competition. Just not the case. In the S and X price range, yes, there will be some other long range EVs. They may take some sales from the S and X, but, mostly they will takes sales from ICE vehicles. In China, there may be some marked ramping up by 2020 or so. That said, In the Model 3's price range for the rest of the world, I'm only aware of perhaps 3 other vehicles by 2020, but none of them will have even 25% as much production as the Model 3... and I think demand in the price range will far outstrip (i.e. by several fold) the 500,000 or so Model 3s and perhaps 200,000 vehicles from everyone else (combined).

 

[erthquake]

You must not follow too closely. VW/Audi, Volvo and BMW all have competition coming soon.

Until those companies lock up meaningfully large supplies of batteries, they won't compete with Tesla. There's so much demand for high-performance EVs that Tesla will sell every car they make for the foreseeable future. Unless other companies commit to battery supplies that rival GF1 output, their battery costs will suck their margins dry, and that assumes that they can even compete with the range in Teslas.

 

[voip-ninja]

Until those companies lock up meaningfully large supplies of batteries, they won't compete with Tesla. There's so much demand for high-performance EVs that Tesla will sell every car they make for the foreseeable future. Unless other companies commit to battery supplies that rival GF1 output, their battery costs will suck their margins dry, and that assumes that they can even compete with the range in Teslas.

I don’t understand this logic. GM, VAG, BMW, Nissan, Toyota ... they are all building full EVs in reasonable numbers and have not hit this bottleneck.

They don’t have to build Tesla’s volume in the next couple of years to field competitive offerings even if they only produce tens of thousands of units a year.

My point ultimately is that M3 is a critical product for Tesla. It is the car that will make or break the company as they are completely reliant on M3to make Tesla profitable.

The average person who put $1K down on a model 3 is not going to forgive Model 3 shortcomings. Many are coming from other upper end vehicles as a direct point of comparison.

While I’m sure some are EV evangelists and environmentalists willing to cut Tesla slack because of “the mission”, I’d be willing to wager that the majority are not.

Tesla has to get this right.

 

[gene]

I don’t understand this logic. GM, VAG, BMW, Nissan, Toyota ... they are all building full EVs in reasonable numbers and have not hit this bottleneck.

They don’t have to build Tesla’s volume in the next couple of years to field competitive offerings even if they only produce tens of thousands of units a year.

My point ultimately is that M3 is a critical product for Tesla. It is the car that will make or break the company as they are completely reliant on M3to make Tesla profitable.

The average person who put $1K down on a model 3 is not going to forgive Model 3 shortcomings. Many are coming from other upper end vehicles as a direct point of comparison.

While I’m sure some are EV evangelists and environmentalists willing to cut Tesla slack because of “the mission”, I’d be willing to wager that the majority are not.

Tesla has to get this right.

Now that I own a Model 3 and have put on a couple of hundred miles on it. I'd say they "got it right" in spades!

 

[kbM3]

You must not follow too closely. VW/Audi, Volvo and BMW all have competition coming soon.

Neither VW, Audi nor Volvo has announced a $35k sports sedan, so no.

BMW has mentioned electric 3 series, but no details.

Edit: No other company has the ability to build a Model 3 level car at an equivalent price.

 

[Hertog_Martin]

Curious to the 60kwh version of the Nissan Leaf though.

Their 35k new leaf comes with quite a few options and driving assistance technologies standard.

They seem more dedicated to EV than most manufacturers and deserve some credit for the original leaf years back

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I don’t understand this logic. GM, VAG, BMW, Nissan, Toyota ... they are all building full EVs in reasonable numbers and have not hit this bottleneck.

They don’t have to build Tesla’s volume in the next couple of years to field competitive offerings even if they only produce tens of thousands of units a year.

My point ultimately is that M3 is a critical product for Tesla. It is the car that will make or break the company as they are completely reliant on M3to make Tesla profitable.

The average person who put $1K down on a model 3 is not going to forgive Model 3 shortcomings. Many are coming from other upper end vehicles as a direct point of comparison.

While I’m sure some are EV evangelists and environmentalists willing to cut Tesla slack because of “the mission”, I’d be willing to wager that the majority are not.

Tesla has to get this right.

Those manufacturers are building EVs, but their sales volume is far less than Tesla's, even though they're much larger/more established. In top of that, most other EVs have far less range, which appears to be constraining sales.

The only manufacturer seriously challenging Tesla in EV sales volume is GM with the Bolt, probably because it has good range at a reasonable price. Still, GM is only selling about half of Tesla's volume even though the Bolt is less than half the cost of the average S or X.

https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2017-sales-chart-November-vfinal2.png

In terms of quality/design, there are plenty of people willing to accept temporarily misaligned trim, no binnacle, and/or whatever else in exchange for faster, sportier, better looking EVs with similar or lower cost pretty per mile of rated range. Once Tesla exhausts that supply of consumers, they'll have to step up their game. Until then, they'll sell every EV they build and the sales of other EVs will continue to lag.

Don't get me wrong, if someone like Toyota builds a good looking EV that meets and/or exceeds the 3's specs for $5k or so less, that'll pull sales away from Tesla, but that hasn't happened yet.

 

[T34ME]

In the S and X price range, yes, there will be some other long range EVs. They may take some sales from the S and X, but, mostly they will takes sales from ICE vehicles.

I agree that there will be a few EV's in the MS/X price range from the likes of Jaguar, Porsche, Audi in the next three years, But they will never have an immediate significant impact on MS/X sales for two reasons:

• no viable Supercharger network up and running at that time
• MS/X will have a re-fresh by then that will feature an enhanced and refined spaceship interior with a more fully developed U.I. software that will get us even closer to FSD (if not already there) and they will have increased range of over 400 miles.

The other legacy automakers are just playing catch up right now and pushing out some cobbled together EV designs to try to stem the Tesla tide. For example, the Jaguar I-Pace is just a warmed over F-Pace design with some batteries thrown in.

As far as EV cars competing with the model 3, we will see a few from GM, Nissan, VW, Mini, BMW but again they will not have a significant impact because:

• no viable Supercharger network up and running at that time
• will be warmed over ICE designs with very limited range/around town cars with no significant innovation or design

It will be many years before any automaker can mount a serious challenge to Tesla in the EV marketplace. Tesla's biggest threat is from Tesla itself, - growing too big, too fast. Elon has already shown his competitive streak by issuing a challenge to the other automakers with the Gen II Roadster, be prepared to up your game. He is not going to let the MS/X design become stagnant from even the most serious challenger at this point, the Model 3. There will be a major refresh of the MS/X soon.

Can Elon keep all the balls in the air? Only time will tell.

 

[30seconds]

What do you is farther along in development-

Serious Model 3 competitor from Germany
Or
Model Y

 

[voip-ninja]

Those manufacturers are building EVs, but their sales volume is far less than Tesla's, even though they're much larger/more established. In top of that, most other EVs have far less range, which appears to be constraining sales.

The only manufacturer seriously challenging Tesla in EV sales volume is GM with the Bolt, probably because it has good range at a reasonable price. Still, GM is only selling about half of Tesla's volume even though the Bolt is less than half the cost of the average S or X.

https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2017-sales-chart-November-vfinal2.png

In terms of quality/design, there are plenty of people willing to accept temporarily misaligned trim, no binnacle, and/or whatever else in exchange for faster, sportier, better looking EVs with similar or lower cost pretty per mile of rated range. Once Tesla exhausts that supply of consumers, they'll have to step up their game. Until then, they'll sell every EV they build and the sales of other EVs will continue to lag.

Don't get me wrong, if someone like Toyota builds a good looking EV that meets and/or exceeds the 3's specs for $5k or so less, that'll pull sales away from Tesla, but that hasn't happened yet.

I think it's because of the unmitigated "early" success of Model 3 with 100's of thousands of deposited pre-orders that other manufacturers are drastically accelerating their own timetables for entry into the EV market.

Tesla has a head start. They still have to execute very well. Next six months will be interesting as they transition into first time owners taking possession.

The issues described so far are either minor annoyances or show-stoppers depending on your expectations.

 

[T34ME]

What do you is farther along in development-

Serious Model 3 competitor from Germany
Or
Model Y

Model Y, for sure.

Where, what is the serious model 3 competitor from Germany? Where is the competitive supercharging infrastructure here in the US for a German EV car?

 

[ölbrenner]

voip-ninja said: ↑
You must not follow too closely. VW/Audi, Volvo and BMW all have competition coming soon.

Neither VW, Audi nor Volvo has announced a $35k sports sedan, so no.

BMW has mentioned electric 3 series, but no details.

Edit: No other company has the ability to build a Model 3 level car at an equivalent price.

Exactly. And the "competition" has only announced very expensive city cars. Not a one you can take a real road trip in (and the same goes for the current LEAF, Bolt, etc. etc.).

 

[Dynastar]

Don't get me wrong, if someone like Toyota builds a good looking EV that meets and/or exceeds the 3's specs for $5k or so less, that'll pull sales away from Tesla, but that hasn't happened yet.

I agree but it's not clear to me how they could short of a battery breakthrough that only they have access to or a decision to sell at a loss.