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Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by dpeilow, Jun 22, 2010.
EVs worthless within 5 years
So using his logic, a 2008 roadster will only be worth 10 grand in 4 years?
Some people come up with the stupidest $hit.
Well, assuming their logic is correct -- how much WOULD a roadster with a dead battery pack be worth? 30k? 40k? I guess it depends on how much a replacement pack would cost and how long that one would last.
Look at how much the rav4 ev's go for with weak battery packs. Certainly nowhere near 10% of their new price.
I was thinking the same about RAV-4 EVs. Several years ago a 2002 model went for ~ 60k. The original SP was ~ 42k.
I hope you mean *far above* 10% of the original purchase price. Only, how have they done lately?
Yes, I mean "far above", sorry for he confusion. I don't think a roadster under $50k will be easy to find in the next 10 years unless it is wrecked.
The other thing to think about is that in 5-7 years when it is time to get new batteries, Tesla owners will be able to upgrade to better batteries to make the car go even further and perhaps, with new firmware, go faster. Do battery prices have to come down? Absolutely. But a 7 year old electric car with new state of the art batteries may even be worth more than that car new (assuming the interior is still in good shape).
Even if he's right, 2 years of gas savings makes up the difference in depreciation.
Another thing to consider is that the pack is not completely worthless, it'll just hold less charge (have less range), which a used car buyer may be okay with.
However, it doesn't mean it isn't an issue. It would be nice if there was an easy way to tell how far the battery has degraded (esp since it depends on how the driver uses it).
Good point about the battery pack only holding less charge but still being functional.
I hope to buy the Model S when it's available with AWD (much snow/ice here) and the 300-mile battery (need to do long distance and there's no fast chargers here yet).
7-10 years after purchase, the battery pack may only do 200 miles. But there will surely be some fast chargers around, so it'll probably still be ok to use.
Some years after that the pack may only do 100 miles (what a Leaf does today!) but fast chargers is hopefully everywhere and so 100 miles range is not such a big drawback anymore.
Is there any estimates for battery pack life down to 1/3 capacity ? All I ever see is down to 70% or 80% but is the decrease from there linear or accelerating ?
That is mostly because the RAV4-EV was the only realistic EV available to be purchased used. There was a premium because of the unique status of those cars. There were no other new EVs available.
If you could have gone to the Toyota dealer and purchased a new RAV4-EV the entire time from 2001-2010 then there is no chance that the early ones would have retained their value so strongly.
You mean something like this?
Exactly. Also re: AWD, I thought since there was a motor @ each wheel the model S was going to be considered AWD? Or am I thinking of another EV
You must be thinking of a different car. As far as I know the standard 'S' will have one big motor in the back. (Similar to the Roadster.)
A future AWD variant might have a second motor up front.
So far, Tesla has not shown any interest in using hub motors.
We already know the wrecked Teslas are selling in in the 40 to $50K range. At least one had a dead battery.
Scarcity again may play a part here but that will be valid for many years as EVs slowly (too slowly) roll out.
Brilliant observation on the timing of an EV's diminishing travel distance being inverse to the addition of local charging infrastructure.
Hub motors is not the same thing as a motor at each wheel. Look at the Mercedes gull wing EV. It has a motor for each wheel. They are shown mounted in the center of the car between the wheels, each with a reduction gearbox and short drive shaft out to the wheel.
Yes, I know of that - and spoke of that idea years ago here...
So, I have heard nothing of Tesla planning to use a motor per wheel either.