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Existing Solar City - Navigating Adding PW2s and Add'l Solar

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I recently moved back home to CA after spending about a decade in NC, and our new (to us) home came with a 7.2KW Tesla Solar system (installed under the Solar City name). PG&E has been an absolute disaster since we've moved in, so I want to protect ourselves as much as possible from grid failures, and from giving PG&E any more money than we need to.

At the core of this I'd like to add 2-3 PowerWall 2s to the house, and additionally I'd like to add a fair bit more solar. The current solar system appears to be performing within range when I compare it to online production calculators, but it just doesn't keep up with our usage. The house is 3,400sf, has a decent sized pool, above ground spa, 5 ton AC compressor, and two Tesla daily drivers, so I'm not all that surprised. Everything else has been electrically slimmed down as much as possible with gas appliances, LED everything, home automation for power saving, etc.

Right now the things that are confusing me the most are 1) whether to pursue SGIP, and 2) whether to just get a quote from Tesla or consider their licensed installers.

SGIP confuses me, since from what I've read:
1. Tesla no longer has any allocation for SGIP, but their installers may. Although the installers typically end up at a higher price anyway.
2. SGIP mandates 52 discharge cycles per year, which limits the modes you can use on the PowerWalls.
3. Anything over 2 PowerWalls is no longer "small residential" and Tesla won't even help with SGIP on those installations.
4. I'm still unclear on whether the SGIP cycling limit needs to be achieved via solar or grid or both.

So far most of what I'm reading seems to indicate folks are leaning towards sticking with Tesla, and forgoing the SGIP rebate. Curious what everyone thinks about this, since it sort of dictates who I start the quoting/planning process with.

I'm also planning on keeping the pool/spa/cars on the grid side of the gateway, in hope that it would allow me to:
1. Size my self-powering capabilities to include offsetting those large loads.
2. Not have to factor these large loads into battery backup capacity. I'm fine with those loads being dark for a few days if necessary, and keeping a spare backed-up 240V outlet in case I need to charge a car in a pinch.

Is that a fair strategy, or am I overlooking some bit of logic in how the PowerWall decided when to discharge? I saw one YouTube video where the owner showed how Tesla had installed the grid-side CTs beyond the car charging circuits. So the PowerWall knew when they were drawing power and could compensate by discharging, but since the loads were on the grid side of the gateway they wouldn't drain the battery when the grid was down.

Two other less important curiosities:
1. Will Tesla be open to modifying/expanding the current solar system, or will they only design a new system to be installed in parallel?
2. I've seen some rumors of a coming PowerWall 3. Do you think there's any merit in waiting for that to release?

I apologize for the long-winded stream of consciousness, lol. Thank you in advance for any thoughts or insights you might be able to contribute on any of my points above!
 
It can be done in some cases, but maybe not all.

We had our original 16.5 kW system with 3 Powerwalls installed by Tesla in July 2018. In September 2019, we had Tesla install a 4th Powerwall. In December 2019, we had Tesla install another 3.9 kW. For the new system, they just needed to add a new inverter and some breakers and move a box on the side of the house. They were able to use existing conduit, solar generation meter, etc. in our case.
 
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A couple of comments on your initial points:
1. SGIP is currently in waitlist for all installers. See SGIP | (change budget category to "Small Residential"). A Step 6 and 7 are coming, though.
2. I easily reached the 52 discharge cycles in time-based control mode on a TOU plan. I think pretty much the only mode that is excluded by the requirement is backup-only mode.
4. Powerwalls in the US generally can only charge from solar to preserve eligibility for the federal tax credit. There are reports of at least one person getting this restriction lifted, though. I think it would be pretty hard to make up the 26% credit in gains from grid charging, though.
 
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Tesla is likely not going to modify that existing system, they would want to put a new system in, in parallel with that one. Pretty much any installer is going to do that.

Dont factor SGIP into your savings calculations at all. You might get it, you might not, its waitlisted for almost all installers for "residential sized" installs.

Going from 2 powerwalls to 3 powerwalls changes the category of the install, if I remember correctly that constitutes a large install, and you may need to prove usage for that (which sounds like no issue) but you also may be able to qualify for SGIP under another category... but...

Most 3rd party installers price quotes will be higher than tesla's. If you have the experience I had when getting quotes, the amount higher the third party installers I was calling was almost exactly the amount of the SGIP rebate that tesla itself was oversubscribed to. Translation, the third party installers I called were pricing high enough to basically "take" the SGIP rebate. I had no desire to pay more up front, to get a rebate that then brought me in line with teslas original charges.

With that being said, many third party installers provide better customer service than tesla direct, however, my experience is, the people on site (doing the installs and such) are usually very good, and very professional. its the "question and answer" and "communication" stages that tesla is not good at.

So, If you want more solar, you should plan on having someone quote you a brand new system, not touching your current system AT ALL. They dont want to be liable for the current system if something goes wrong. Even though its tesla installed, they will probably do the same thing.

As I mentioned, when getting your quotes, I would not factor the SGIP into it at all. I would consider receiving the SGIP as "bonus" money, not something you would be "entitled" to... because its entirely possible that they will burn through the currently proposed steps 6 and 7 before you become eligible to get it.

Consider 2-3 powerwalls based on your needs, and I would agree with putting the pool pumps and such on the grid side. Depending on how many powerwalls you buy, you will be told what your options are for backing up all that anyway.

Teslas pricing is very transparent on the powerwalls.

6700 per powerwall
1100 for the gateway
3k to install 1 powerwall... 2.5k to install 2 powerwalls (yep its cheaper to install 2 than 1), 4k to install 3 powerwalls.
Taxes

(not counting panel upgrades etc that might need to happen).

Good luck, and welcome back to one of the most expensive states in the US, but you knew that, lol