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Expected Mileage at 25k Miles

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Totally depends on what battery pack you have. Degradation on some packs and capacities slightly faster than others. I hear the 100kwh packs hold up best so far.

My 2016 75 pack is doing great still. I've seen maybe a 5% Degradation in the first year, then not much since.
 
There's many posts on this, some of which have graphs you should probably look at.

The reason I say that, is that the degradation curve is not linear, it's common to see it drop faster early in life, and then stabilize for a more gradual drop off later. There's also many variables such as how often you charge to 100%, how often you supercharge, how much time the car sits at a high state of charge.
 
t will be different for each Tesla. For example, my Sept 2017 Model S P100D was originally getting 315miles on a 100% SOC, but now it's 281 miles around 39000 miles. I also switched out the factory 19" with the referral 21" Arachnid wheels around 7500 miles so that is contributing to the lower milage.
 
Consistent with the other the commenters here - it definitely varies.

I have a 1Q2017 Model S90D and have used teslafi.com's logging and visualization services since about 2 months into ownership (2k miles or so). Highly recommended if you want to get gorpy with your car's data.

The 90D isn't known for having a fantastic battery, but it was the "LR" at the time. I have put 77k miles on the car since new with an estimated degradation of between 6 and 9% depending on how you fit the data - so roughly 20-25 miles or so. Honestly? I'm pretty pleased with that.

At 25k miles it looks like I was between 2-3% loss, roughly 10 miles or so.

upload_2020-5-7_11-46-5.png
 
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And mine is over 13% loss. So it’s also just “luck of the draw” to some extent. There isn’t really an “expected” number at any given mileage or for any given battery.
Well- also depends on external factors you expose your battery pack to such as temperatures, high voltage DC charge sessions, etc. I've don't very little super charging and drive like a grandma.
 
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Well- also depends on external factors you expose your battery pack to such as temperatures, high voltage DC charge sessions, etc. I've don't very little super charging and drive like a grandma.

Certainly, I agree. I guess my point is there are so many variables (up to and including "luck") that it's difficult to arrive at any expected amount of charge loss.

I also supercharge very little and generally drive with efficiency in mind, in a mild California climate. That said, my typical duty cycle is a fairly deep daily discharge from 90% to ~30%. I've come to believe this is a significant factor (perhaps one of the most significant) in observed degradation.
 
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Thanks all, that’s good to know. I will drop it then. I’m at 340 with the 100 battery for the 2019 Raven. I have a charger at home and almost never charge to 100%. That said I drive a lot, 3-4K/month so it is always charged in the garage. I just felt like 8 months and a loss of 30-40 miles was a solid amount. Sounds like I am wrong.
 
Just going to add a data point. 2019 100D (pre-Raven) now with ~18k miles on it. At new, I was getting 331 @ 100% / 301 @ 90%. Now I am getting ~327 @ 100% / 300 (sometimes 301) @ 90%. I don't charge to 100% often so my current figure may be off but still I'd say relatively minor degradation.

Charge almost exclusively at home with slower 16A level 2 EVSE.
 
You can't look at one 100% charge.
The range is an estimate and the number can drift (usually down) over time. You can do some balancing and likely get the number up a bit - but why?
Repeat after me....
The reported range by the BMS is not a reliable indicator of degradation.
You might as well just run your ICE gas tank to "empty" and consider that you used a full tank when calculating gas mileage. (completely imperfect analogy).
Also ambient temperature will effect BMS reported range.
And to repeat what others have said, 1st year (or 10,000 or so miles) is higher than forever more.
I have a 2015 70D that hits 220 (original was 240). I have 83k miles. So like 9%. It was 5% 1st year and then 1% since then roughly. Very roughly, just like the BMS estimate.
 
It would be interesting to compare apples with apples, the apples being the reported watts/mile over the maximum data-miles.
My 2020 S -LR is giving me around the 240watts/mile and 292 expected miles from 80% SOC - which is what I keep it charged to.