With Tesla's new projections for vehicle sales, it looks to me like the $7,500 federal tax credit might be in jeopardy for Model 3, or at least only available to early purchasers. That full credit expires after a manufacturer has sold 200,000 vehicles - partial credit at 50% is available the next 6 months and 25% the 6 month after that. Then it's time for the market to show who's boss. With the following gross assumption (please correct my numbers, I am not as fastidious as some of you on this): US Delivery Estimates Roadster 2,000 Model S '12 2,500 Model S '13 15,000 (est. 2/3 of total deliveries) Model S '14 17,500 (guessing 50% of 35k) Model S '15 20,000 (guessing 40% of 50k) Model S '16 24,000 (guessing 40% of 60k) Model X '15 10,000 (guessing 50% of 20k) Model X '16 24,000 (guessing 40% of 60k) So I am assuming 70,000 worldwide S&X deliveries in 2016 and 120,000 worldwide deliveries in 2017. If the above is true, they would have sold 115k cars in the US by the end of 2016. If we assume S&X sales are consistent between 2016 and 2017, by the end of 2017 they will have sold 163k cars. If release the Model 3 mid-2017, at best only the first 37k Model 3 owners will get the full credit (assuming they sell/produce 37,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017. If not that many, then it's a rat race at the beginning of 2018 as Model S, X, and 3 will all be going full throttle and 200K cars will be approaching at lightning speed.) Definitely will stoke demand to get a $7,500 credit with your $35k car. If Model 3 stalls into 2018, or sales for S&X exceed what's above, there might not be much tax credit money available for anyone who buys Model 3. Moral: Get your Model 3 reservation in early as I suspect the reservation rate will be at least triple what we've seen for S&X and there will be few credits available.