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Expiring tax credit will help resale value of early Model 3s?

This may be an insanely obvious point so I apologize if this has been discussed already.

My understanding is that Tesla has built/delivered close to 10k Model 3s to date. Depending on when they hit the 200k mark, they may have 2 or 3 quarters left with the full federal tax credit.

So let's say ~50k Model 3s are purchased with the full tax credit, and within a few years there are hundreds of thousands of these cars on the road. Wouldn't the early M3s purchased with the tax credit do comparatively better on the used market? New M3s would no longer be eligible for the credit, and the majority of other used M3s would have been purchased without the credit.

Maybe I'm just trying to justify my decision to order RWD now rather than wait for AWD later this year :)
It's better to buy a Model 3 with the tax credit than without the tax credit. haha
Tesla is not going to lower the price after the tax credit expires. Everything being equal used prices should go up after the credit expires because the effective price of a new car went up.
It's likely that you will be able to get the AWD with the tax credit though.
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Dr. J

Active Member
Aug 23, 2017
Fort Worth, Texas
Everything being equal used prices should go up after the credit expires because the effective price of a new car went up.
I'm not sure I follow that logic, but the bigger point is that everything else may not be equal. If there is actual competition in a year or two (a big "if" certainly) and if that competition is competitively priced (another big "if"), we might see a price drop. I'm not at all sure that will happen, but it's conceivable.


Active Member
Apr 12, 2016
Chandler, AZ
I think a price reduction is likely for software upgrades. The price of my software upgrade for a S60 to a S75 dropped from a post-delivery price of $9000 in Dec 2016 to $2000 about six months later. I am not predicting such a massive price drop for post-delivery autopilot but wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a modest price cut after the tax credit expires.

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