Export Owner shipments before US early reservations? Probably.

[McRat]

Good news for Europe, maybe not so good for the US buyers.

Some scoffed at me when I said that many US non-owners will be queued behind the export market for their Model 3 reservations. I based my calc on number of owners globally (~250k), conversion rate, and number of advertised reservations noted in April 2016, which IIRC was 400k. Tesla's Model 3 Reservations Rise to Almost 400,000 Nobody knows for sure, certainly not me, but here's is what is in print today, emphasis mine:

Production Timeline
2017
Production begins in the US, with the Long Range Battery
Customer deliveries begin

2018
All-Wheel Drive production begins

Production of the Standard Battery begins

International deliveries of left-hand drive vehicles begin this year

2019
Production of right-hand drive vehicles begins.

What we don't know is actual production, start of exports, and number of exports.