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facebook earning as a lesson for upcoming tesla earnings

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by redharel, Oct 31, 2013.

  1. redharel

    redharel Member

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    as we can see there is a trend in the market that even if you beat analyst estimate the market only look for one small negative bits of info to open a selling riot.
    netflix and apple also suffered the same result. so for all of the believers out there who bought 180$ calls and north just for the earning should do their thinking.
    good luck to you all
     
  2. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Yes. I will sell most (all?) calls ahead of earnings, both those which are red and green. Even with a modest pop on the stock the calls will suffer from IV crush. With the current sentiment I don't see it as likely, even with a hughe beat and great guidance, that the stock does a pop-n-squeeze after the report that overpowers the effect of IV crush on the short to medium term OTM calls.
     
  3. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    IMO I think you're all in for a surprise, I expect sales #'s to far exceed what was projected.
     
  4. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    What's your number and how did you come up with it?
     
  5. ZenMan

    ZenMan Member

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    I think there is significant difference between FB and TSLA. FB ran up significantly into earnings and looks to be off 3% today after their report. TSLA has not had a run up into earnings and in fact has sold off into earnings so I don't think we can surmise that we will continue to sell off even with a good report.
     
  6. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    #6 fjm9898, Oct 31, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2013
    What chart are you looking at? FB ran up to 55 and the dropped all the way to 49 before earnings. that is 12%
    TSLA ran up to 194.5 and then fell to $160 (now lower) which was 20%. so TSLA and FB are in similar boats. Tesla gets back to 165ish then that is 15% off the high before Earnings.
     
  7. ZenMan

    ZenMan Member

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    You are right. I don't know what chart I was looking at earlier today. I didn't realize how similar the stocks are tracking. Almost like the bots are ignoring any company specific info and trading at a more macro level.
    Tesla FB.jpg
     
  8. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    I agree that $180 calls are not necessarily a strong bet ahead of earnings, but given that we have seen a "rundown" ahead of earnings I think a beat will return the stock to the $180 range or better.
     
  9. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    Watching FB action last night (before the big blunder that sent it tanking) FB broke the ATH of 55.83 and made it to $57.
    Not saying Tesla is going to do the same, but since we have already reached into the 190s, we can do it again on a good beat. Plus any analyst upping their price point after the CC usually comes within a month. This is why i never buy weeklies of the ER, I buy a month out. I am in DEC and JAN options, that way if the beat wasent enough, i can still get more on the back end with a continued run up if i need. Or i can still sell out day after ER if i get the gain I think it worth it. (Same thing happened after Q2, i was able to hold on for a while and let the stock come back up after the dip)
     
  10. redharel

    redharel Member

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    getting to 180 after earning will give buyers nothing especially those who paid double digit.
    the best thing in my opinion and you can see it today with facebook is to buy the share and sale calls.
     
  11. justdoit

    justdoit Member

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    Agree, that was my lesson from Q2. So this time I also bought Dec/Jan options and none for Nov.
     

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