facebook earning as a lesson for upcoming tesla earnings

[redharel]

as we can see there is a trend in the market that even if you beat analyst estimate the market only look for one small negative bits of info to open a selling riot.
netflix and apple also suffered the same result. so for all of the believers out there who bought 180$ calls and north just for the earning should do their thinking.
good luck to you all

 

[Johan]

Yes. I will sell most (all?) calls ahead of earnings, both those which are red and green. Even with a modest pop on the stock the calls will suffer from IV crush. With the current sentiment I don't see it as likely, even with a hughe beat and great guidance, that the stock does a pop-n-squeeze after the report that overpowers the effect of IV crush on the short to medium term OTM calls.

 

[yobigd20]

IMO I think you're all in for a surprise, I expect sales #'s to far exceed what was projected.

 

[bonaire]

IMO I think you're all in for a surprise, I expect sales #'s to far exceed what was projected.

What's your number and how did you come up with it?

 

[ZenMan]

as we can see there is a trend in the market that even if you beat analyst estimate the market only look for one small negative bits of info to open a selling riot.
netflix and apple also suffered the same result. so for all of the believers out there who bought 180$ calls and north just for the earning should do their thinking.
good luck to you all

I think there is significant difference between FB and TSLA. FB ran up significantly into earnings and looks to be off 3% today after their report. TSLA has not had a run up into earnings and in fact has sold off into earnings so I don't think we can surmise that we will continue to sell off even with a good report.

 

[fjm9898]

I think there is significant difference between FB and TSLA. FB ran up significantly into earnings and looks to be off 3% today after their report. TSLA has not had a run up into earnings and in fact has sold off into earnings so I don't think we can surmise that we will continue to sell off even with a good report.

What chart are you looking at? FB ran up to 55 and the dropped all the way to 49 before earnings. that is 12%
TSLA ran up to 194.5 and then fell to $160 (now lower) which was 20%. so TSLA and FB are in similar boats. Tesla gets back to 165ish then that is 15% off the high before Earnings.

 

[ZenMan]

What chart are you looking at? FB ran up to 55 and the dropped all the way to 49 before earnings. that is 12%
TSLA ran up to 194.5 and then fell to $160 (now lower) which was 20%. so TSLA and FB are in similar boats. Tesla gets back to 165ish then that is 15% off the high before Earnings.

You are right. I don't know what chart I was looking at earlier today. I didn't realize how similar the stocks are tracking. Almost like the bots are ignoring any company specific info and trading at a more macro level.

 

[DonPedro]

I agree that $180 calls are not necessarily a strong bet ahead of earnings, but given that we have seen a "rundown" ahead of earnings I think a beat will return the stock to the $180 range or better.

 

[fjm9898]

I agree that $180 calls are not necessarily a strong bet ahead of earnings, but given that we have seen a "rundown" ahead of earnings I think a beat will return the stock to the $180 range or better.

Watching FB action last night (before the big blunder that sent it tanking) FB broke the ATH of 55.83 and made it to $57.
Not saying Tesla is going to do the same, but since we have already reached into the 190s, we can do it again on a good beat. Plus any analyst upping their price point after the CC usually comes within a month. This is why i never buy weeklies of the ER, I buy a month out. I am in DEC and JAN options, that way if the beat wasent enough, i can still get more on the back end with a continued run up if i need. Or i can still sell out day after ER if i get the gain I think it worth it. (Same thing happened after Q2, i was able to hold on for a while and let the stock come back up after the dip)

 

[redharel]

I agree that $180 calls are not necessarily a strong bet ahead of earnings, but given that we have seen a "rundown" ahead of earnings I think a beat will return the stock to the $180 range or better.

getting to 180 after earning will give buyers nothing especially those who paid double digit.
the best thing in my opinion and you can see it today with facebook is to buy the share and sale calls.

 

[justdoit]

Watching FB action last night (before the big blunder that sent it tanking) FB broke the ATH of 55.83 and made it to $57.
Not saying Tesla is going to do the same, but since we have already reached into the 190s, we can do it again on a good beat. Plus any analyst upping their price point after the CC usually comes within a month. This is why i never buy weeklies of the ER, I buy a month out. I am in DEC and JAN options, that way if the beat wasent enough, i can still get more on the back end with a continued run up if i need. Or i can still sell out day after ER if i get the gain I think it worth it. (Same thing happened after Q2, i was able to hold on for a while and let the stock come back up after the dip)

Agree, that was my lesson from Q2. So this time I also bought Dec/Jan options and none for Nov.