Well, off the top of my head there was supposed to be a Hydrogen Series 6 in 2010 and hydrogen BMW 3 and 5 series by 2015.
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Well, off the top of my head there was supposed to be a Hydrogen Series 6 in 2010 and hydrogen BMW 3 and 5 series by 2015.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
NoPetrolDream
Fandango
I long for the day when I pass every gas station on the road without stopping at any of them. Ever.
To me hydrogen fuel cell is a net energy loser. If I can charge up my future EV overnight from rays of the sun captured during the day, how is hydrogen fuel, with a grossly expensive energy and infrastructure requirement, to compare? Even if my EV never sees a millivolt of solar or wind generated juice, it still has a superior source to end use conversion ratio over hydrogen.
Yes, it's hard to let go of the old ways and established thinking. It's very human, actually. But another thing that is human is stretching ourselves beyond our self-imposed boundaries to discover ways of doing things that would stun previous generations.
To me hydrogen fuel cell is a net energy loser. If I can charge up my future EV overnight from rays of the sun captured during the day, how is hydrogen fuel, with a grossly expensive energy and infrastructure requirement, to compare? Even if my EV never sees a millivolt of solar or wind generated juice, it still has a superior source to end use conversion ratio over hydrogen.
Yes, it's hard to let go of the old ways and established thinking. It's very human, actually. But another thing that is human is stretching ourselves beyond our self-imposed boundaries to discover ways of doing things that would stun previous generations.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Someone is welcome to explain to me how FCEVs fit into the future projections for autonomous driving.
I mean, come on.
I mean, come on.
navguy12
Active Member
Speaking of which, I hope all service centers on 400 series highways get superchargers as well as the route to Manitoba via the north Shore of Lake Superior.
flankspeed8
Member
One could only hope. Eyes will soon be much more opened to the futility of h2 vehicles in the era of long range BEV
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Precisely. Going from gasoline to electric can be considered a detail, compared to what autonomous vehicles will do to the car industry. Think about it for a minute:
- it's projected that more than 70% of humans will live in or near a city in two/three decades.
- with autonomous cars that come to your house/apartment, and which you can drop off anywhere you like, it will make absolutely no sense to own a car. You will simply "own" access to a car. The main reason most people still choose to have one is precisely because of this very practical point.
- why spend 40 000 on a personal car that for 90% of its existence just sits still. When a car doesn't move, it's pointless.
- people will be even less motivated when they get to choose on a day to day basis what kind of car they want for a particular drive. Why not splurge and rent a (electric) Porsche for the weekend? Just to vary....
The auto companies will have to learn to cope with not being able to sell millions of cars each year. That era is coming to an end. It has to, there is no more room in cities already because of cars. I wish we would make more room for people, bike lanes etc. Cities need to be reconquered by people, not giant cars. Auto companies better start thinking about getting into the ride sharing business. And Toyota better wake up soon.....it makes absolutely no sense what they are doing. Why, why, why would I pay for hydrogen??? When I can, 95% of the time charge either at my house, or in my apartment building, or parking lot (a 7kW slow charger costs peanuts and would be absolutely fine to "top off" each night because I'm not driving 300km/day). I have really no idea how Toyota can continue down this road....can they really be this short sighted? Do they really not see they are heading into a dead end?
deonb
Active Member
Ahh.
Well, the cars have a bucket on their roof. When it starts raining they go outside and fill the bucket with water. Then they drive to the nearest Supercharger where they plug in and use up 500kWh of electricity to convert the bucket of water to enough Hydrogen and Oxygen to drive 84 miles.
They then drive around on the Hydrogen, and give the Oxygen to the owner who just fainted from hearing how inefficient this whole process is.
EVie'sDad
Member
Imagine being able to 'supercharge' at home as well as on the road, refilling your electric vehicle in much less time than other electric vehicles. Ask yourself, how much would that be worth to ya laddie?
We Underestimate Tesla
We Underestimate Tesla
We Underestimate Tesla
We Underestimate Tesla
deonb
Active Member
What's Supercharging at home worth? By itself, nothing.
Less than that even. You'd need to pay me. Otherwise it's not worth my time to take the afternoon off to let the electrician through the door to install it.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
There are still considerable vested interests / investments to overcome. Big Auto is a series of supertakers trying to work out the best way to change direction with the minimum of steering adjustments per year.
They had been hoping that their promised S and X killers would make customers wait and give them time to build....something.
They are now hoping that Tesla drops the Model3/Gigafactory ball somewhere in the next 3 years. And they might. Model X is probably Tesla's most valuable vehicle in terms of lessons learned. But the Gigafactory is in a different league.
The biggest mistake that hydrogen developers are making is the lackluster performance of the early prototypes. They have failed to learn from the Tesla Roadster and even bad press for the Model S has reinforced the key capabilities of a battery electric drivetrain.
Elon mentioned that he was expecting reservations to really take off after Part Two and expects the average customer to spend $42k ($5k for D, $2k for SC?).
I think Part 2 is going to focus on performance - it's all about reinforcing the key message that other drivetrains cannot deliver.
And then there's Apple.
As far as personal transport is concerned, Hydrogen is dead.
It just hasn't stopped moving yet.
They had been hoping that their promised S and X killers would make customers wait and give them time to build....something.
They are now hoping that Tesla drops the Model3/Gigafactory ball somewhere in the next 3 years. And they might. Model X is probably Tesla's most valuable vehicle in terms of lessons learned. But the Gigafactory is in a different league.
The biggest mistake that hydrogen developers are making is the lackluster performance of the early prototypes. They have failed to learn from the Tesla Roadster and even bad press for the Model S has reinforced the key capabilities of a battery electric drivetrain.
Elon mentioned that he was expecting reservations to really take off after Part Two and expects the average customer to spend $42k ($5k for D, $2k for SC?).
I think Part 2 is going to focus on performance - it's all about reinforcing the key message that other drivetrains cannot deliver.
And then there's Apple.
As far as personal transport is concerned, Hydrogen is dead.
It just hasn't stopped moving yet.
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Apologies. D stands for Dual motor. Like the Model S, the standard 3 will come with a rear motor.
In fact, Elon expects the D option to be less than $5k
Elon Musk on Twitter
In fact, Elon expects the D option to be less than $5k
Elon Musk on Twitter
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
Please Tesla....if Supercharging isn't going to be included for free, don't make it a stand-alone option. Make it part of a package! Reason being is that people will want to get their money's worth if they know how much they spent on it so they will use Superchargers when they don't really need to, just to recoup what they "already paid for". If it is part of a package, then the cost is vague and less likely to be incentivize abuse.
ZachF
Active Member
Yep, once you realize that hydrogen is basically a leaky, explosive, battery with a low return rate, hydrogen is a non-starter. Most hydrogen is made from natural gas nowadays, lets compare using NG as a fuel for FCVs and BEVs.
Converting NG to H2 has about a ~30% energy loss in steam reformation.
Compressing the H2 to 10,000 PSI is another ~15% energy loss
There is more nonzero losses for storage. hydrogen is just a single proton and can leak out of literally anything. It will be travelling much faster for a given temperature than any other material. The longer you store it the larger the loss. People have estimated a 10-20% leakage loss in a hydrogen infrastructure, we'll go with the lower 10% loss to be fair.
An FCV-sized fuel cell is about 50% efficient at converting H2 heat energy into electrical energy.
Electric motors are about 90% efficient at converting electrical energy into rotational energy. Some of this electricity will need to be stored into batteries, so the losses will be slightly higher, we'll say 12%.
Electric motors don't need complicated transmissions, but there still is some losses, around 5%, less than the ~15% for and ICE engine with a gearbox/etc.
So, 0.70 x 0.85 x 0.90 x 0.50 x 0.88 x 0.95 = 0.2238 NG thermal energy to wheels efficiency.
!!!
That's really only slightly better than a modern efficient ICE w/ hybrid drivetrain! (0.25 x 0.85 =0.213 )
Now lets compare a BEV using a modern NG CCGT.
an NG CCGT is a pretty efficient machine, it can convert ~60% of thermal energy into electricity.
after that you'll have an about 12% loss in the grid and utility self-usage.
about a 7% loss each way in the battery (Charge, discharge)
10% loss in the electric motor, and 5% loss in the drivetrain/wheels.
0.60 x 0.88 x 0.93 x 0.93 x 0.90 x 0.95 = 0.39 NG thermal energy to wheels efficiency. 74% higher than the FCV.
What about if you have some clean electricity as a energy source(Solar, Wind, Nuclear, etc)?
You'll need to electrolyze water to make hydrogen, you're looking at a ~40% loss doing that, then all of the other losses mentioned above after the hydrogen is created.
0.60 x 0.85 x 0.90 x 0.50 x 0.88 x 0.95 = 0.1918
LOL 80% of your clean electricity is wasted... what about BEVs? you can skip the losses converting heat to electricity.
0.88 x 0.93 x 0.93 x 0.90 x 0.95 = 0.651 more than triple the return of FCVs.
FCVs are a joke. anyone who has done the math (like Elon) knows this.
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