Fair Valuation of Tesla - Corporate Finance

[Priigoat]

Dear Members of Tesla,

I am currently working at EY and I am doing basically valuation for huge public companies. My idea was that we could together estimate the fair value of Tesla considering the following valuation techniques:

- Discounted Cashflow using professional variables and best-estimation data provided by luvbb
- Comparable companies (EV/EBITDA; EV/EBIT and other multiples)
- Comparable transactions
- Market ratios (Price-earnings to growth, Price-earnings ratio, Price/revenue)
- Profitability ratio's

Best estimation approach: 50% equity value of DCF * 25% equity value of comparable transactions * 25% equity value of comparable companies

As we'd calculate the fair value of Tesla, we could then identifity a possible Goodwill/Badwill at the current valuation of market capitalization.

To do is all, I'll need your help estimating the following variables:

a) We do need a financial model estimating the business growth at best-estimate (revenue, profitability and investing) for the next 5 years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) to get Free Cash Flows for each financial year
b) We do need CAPM variables, the current cost of debt in %, the tax rate of Tesla and the % split up in debt/equity as of today to estimate WACC
c) We'd need data from comparable transactions (EV/EBITDA multiples if possible) - we'd need someone with access to S&P Capital IQ and/or Mergermarket to get this data.
d) We'd need a group of comparable companies that are similar to Tesla and we'd compare their multiples with Tesla.

 

[Priigoat]

I am currently working but I have set up a Master File to work on for the financial model of Project Tesla. Please find it attached.

We'll need to work on it together as I do unfortunately not have the time to put in all the necessary varialbes and information. The Master file shoud give you an idea what information we'll need to do the fair valuation.

You may download the file here: Uploadfiles.io - 20170627_Project TSLA Databook Master_v1.xlsx

First we'll need to integrate the financials as of to date (FY2016A, FY 2017A and FY2018A)

When you work offline, please always save the file and then reupload it so I can include the work in the Master file.

My plan would be, when we'd finally have all the data availabe, that we'd be doing a (A) BASIC SCENARIO (with basic estimates) and then an (B) OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO and (C) PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO.

We could even include further business opportunities in our business plan and see where this would lead us financial-wise.

So we'lll get a fair stock price for today as per 31.12.2018.

 

[pend1971]

File doesn't work. Almost all cells have the #REF! error.

 

[pend1971]

The file you uploaded contains links to another workbook.

 

[Priigoat]

The file you uploaded contains links to another workbook.

The MasterFile v1 is only a draft version without any figures that are accurate. It only shows the setup for the work to be done by us.

Currently I can not do all the work as I am quite busy, therefore we need to delegate the work on users in this forum that have experience with Corproate Finance. I've just provied a first draft version in which the work can be done.

 

[Mich]

Wtf. You come here as new member, collect some disagrees and deligate you own workload to the community.

Edit: sorry for the ruff wording. But if you want to contribute and croudsource some data it should sound different.

 

[Priigoat]

I cannot set up the model by myself because it takes a lot of work to do. I want also to hear inputs by other professionals.

I'll set up the P&L and balancesheet (actuals) and I will also set up a business plan. Is there somebody that has access to Capital IQ?