You usually don't say "hey turns out in hindsight FSD requires us to solve real world ai problems first" without having solved FSD. Did Tesla freaken solved FSD? You can't claim you need x, y and z for the answer with NO OTHER WAY if you haven't gotten the answer already. How can he be so sure that this is the ONLY way unless FSD was not only solved but he tried to solve it in other ways and all failed?Don't know if posted before, but David Lee just made a video about it.
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This can mean a lot of things.
It can be a plausible explanation for why the FSD download button is not there yet - as well as an 'excuse' for the lateness of FSD v9.
My interpretation is that it is stating that the 'purely' car-version of FSD is not enough. Elon does not say AGI directly, or limited subset AGI. But ... he seems to be inching in that direction. I have a sense that he is re-framing FSD as not only car FSD, but a kind of general 'being-in-the-world' awareness/navigation.
Perhaps not FSD, but FSM (Full Self Moving)
This may be short term bad news for people expecting FSD to be right around the corner. Middle or long term it is good news: As I see it, when FSD(FSM) arrives, it will be surprisingly good. And very generic. (Hint: Robots)
FSD is not around the corner, it takes a lot of time. But ... it will work well when (if) it arrives. And perhaps solve a large part of robotics as well.
UPDATE: Just saw all of Daves new video. One of his best - highly recommended.
Dave thinks that Tesla will go all in on various AI-applications. I think that is likely. But it is even more likely, to me, that Tesla will actually go into robotics, specifically humanoid robots. Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI (at least, that is what we think is the likely outcome for the FSD-project)
What do humanoid robots need?
Who can do all of above?
- Vision based AI, (FSM)
- Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
- Batteries: cheap and good.
- Systems integration.
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.
Also: Robots are very useful, or perhaps necessary for Mars colonization
Also+: The latest Neuralink mind-pong video is interesting in many ways. Specifically relevant here is the very lean physical envelope of the coin-sized compute unit in the monkey's head. Having a large human-sized robot is going to present problems re. cooling, and energy conservation in a space much more limited than a car. Additionally, in a related tweet, Musk discussed the importance of good cooling when designing Dojo. Energy conservation, tight envelopes, cooling - there seems to be some very common trends amongst the various Musk Enterprises.
Given Elon-time, the AI Day will be sometime in the autumn. Tesla will present Dojo. And talk about FSD and more general form of FSD (FSM). I think Musk will also bring up robotics. It is the next logical step.