TL;DR - Yes, great read, soft supervised is my guess, HELLs YES, need to pass through L3 and L4 filters first but will be fast for humans.At what extent the FSD possibility is currently priced in TSLA stock price? When there is a drop in SP because of FSD FUD from MSM, is it because of a panic sell off or the lower probability of FSD occurring because of negative political legislation from FUD?
Has anyone every evaluated the probability of L5 FSD occurring, is it above 90%?
I’m halfway through Intelligence from Jeff Hawkins.
is FSD based on self learning neural network DOJO or programmed based on new input that has to be coded through the software?
just getting anxious that a machine can only be intelligent if it can make predictions. Can FSD make actual predictions from the future that is going to happen on the road from what the neural network learned from the past or from new input programmed in the software? At what extent L5 FSD has to make intelligent new predictions based on events of the last for it to be possible.
Long boring version....
I personally do not think FSD has been priced in. It is such a huge deal that **IF** it were priced in, we'd see such a huge influx of buyers it would drain all other momentum stocks. Just the thought of never having to drive in traffic again makes someone dream of how much they would pay for that. Anyway...as it hasn't happened yet and it is effectively **magic** on 4/20/21, I think that when it is enabled as a BUTTON, people will lose their *sugar*. And yes, I think it is right around the corner, a very hard unprotected left turn, but nonetheless, Tesla's path is technically sound (yes I'm highly biased; some may know how much...tee hee hee).
Everyday, everyday, everyday that goes by is another day for training the most advanced AI in the functional world. You could argue that GPT-3 is more advanced, but the company that made it is an Elon company.....hmmmmm....
Based on self learning? No, I believe it be soft-supervised. In other words, it is supervised at an arms length. I think they are trying to figure out intent along with much better path planning and controls. But until they understand intent, it will always be hesitant, tentative, jittery, passive and above all hard to trust. My 2 cents...
L5 is a distant future, but not in calendar days, we have to pass the great L4 filter first and prior to that we need to pass the L3 filter, before that we need at least a few million turns that we can trust at L5. A better way to say this is your path to the grocery store has many turns (most likely) and by the beauty of math, a fraction of them are hard for AI. Some folks have a path to the food that is easier, these will go full L3 first and holy moly L4 will follow quickly in calendar days. This is what I think we are on the cusp of.
IT CAN TOTALLY MAKE PREDICTIONS!!! That is what it is doing! It is effectively predicting the very near, ms (millisecond by millisecond) future. That is only what it does, nothing else. Anyone that tells you different is trying to sell you something that is similar to the Shamwow!
And again, true L5 is off in the distant future. We will STILL be AMAZED at true L3. Realize that this means that you have like ~10 seconds to respond to the warnings. If the car is only doing L5 or L4 turns, you'll never have to pay attention. You won't know that, but the car will, the AI will, the engineers will and when they review the logs of the turn that returned a crappy confidence or a horrible intervention they will scratch their heads, actually they won't do that, the soft supervised AI should hopefully do the right thing on the next iteration of training. If it doesn't then it will need to be human analyzed.
Ok, I think I've said enough.