1) A federal tax credit of $7500 on Model Y is too juicy for Tesla to pass up. Will massively drive up sales if Model Y qualifies.
2) IRS has confirmed that the 5-seater Y does not qualify as SUV because the 5-seater version weighs under 6000 pounds and ground clearance is under 8 inches.
3) Therefore Tesla will now drop the price of Model Y to $54,000 to ensure that it's under $55,000 MSRP limit for non-SUV hatchbacks including paint color choice.
4) Don't believe me? Model Y Long-range was selling for $49,000 in early 2021. So they can DEFINITELY sell it for $54,000, with raw material prices decreasing now. Especially if they can sell the standard-range version instead.
Next steps : Austin Texas factory production ramps up, Model Y inventory keeps increasing, Tesla drops price of Y to $54,000 in March or June.