Federal Tax Credit - Will I get the Full $7500

[Iamscoobydoo]

My Model 3 delivery Estimate is Feb - Apr 2018 for the First Production model and May - July 2018 for the Standard Battery. My preference is to purchase the Standard battery. Most of what I am reading is Tesla will hit the 200K mark in the first quarter of 2018 giving me till June 30th to take delivery to get the full credit. If I miss that date with the standard battery in reality it would only cost me $5250.00 more to purchase the larger battery. FYI - I pay no additional sales tax as there are none in the state on New Jersey. What is the most reliable source on when Tesla hits 200K?

 

[Runt8]

I'm in the exact same situation - pretty sure I will get the full credit for the Long Range version but Standard is 50-50. No one knows how reliable these estimates are yet. I'm hoping that enough information on Tesla's production numbers will be available by the time I am able to order the LR model that I can make an educated decision.

 

[kingjamez]

We can all guess, but you'll just have to watch it yourself as your date gets nearer. Come Feb 2018 when you actually need to make a decision, the truth will be evident. Until then, nothing we can do but wait.

-Jim

 

[Troy]

What is the most reliable source on when Tesla hits 200K?

My calculation currently shows 10 January 2018. However, there is a Tesla conference call today. I will listen to that to try to find out if I should update my projections one way or another. It starts at 2:30 pm Pacific Time and people can listen to it here.

By aware that you should ignore outdated calculations dating back before 28 July 2017 because until then international Model 3 deliveries were expected to begin sooner. However, on 28 July, on the Model 3 FAQ page here, Tesla said, "late 2018." That means 100% of Model 3 production will go the USA for all the quarters that matter. This increases the number of cars delivered in the USA in 2017, moving the 200K day sooner.

On Reddit, some people are suggesting that Tesla can just send some of the Model 3 cars to Canada in 2017. This is not a realistic idea. Tesla has an official delivery estimator on their website and it shows "Late 2018" for Canada. Also, Canada cars have different hardware which means last minute changes are not possible without pre-planning.

 

[Runt8]

My calculation currently shows 10 January 2018. However, there is a Tesla conference call today. I will listen to that to try to find out if I should update my projections one way or another. It starts at 2:30 pm Pacific Time and people can listen to it here.

By aware that you should ignore outdated calculations dating back before 28 July 2017 because until then international Model 3 deliveries were expected to begin sooner. However, on 28 July, on the Model 3 FAQ page here, Tesla said, "late 2018." That means 100% of Model 3 production will go the USA for all the quarters that matter. This increases the number of cars delivered in the USA in 2017, moving the 200K day sooner.

On Reddit, some people are suggesting that Tesla can just send some of the Model 3 cars to Canada in 2017. This is not a realistic idea. Tesla has an official delivery estimator on their website and it shows "Late 2018" for Canada. Also, Canada cars have different hardware which means last minute changes are not possible without pre-planning.

I doubt they will send them to Canada (for several reasons, including the ones you mentioned), but I wouldn't be surprised if they just didn't deliver them right away if it came down to a couple weeks. Delaying a few thousand deliveries is a lot better than pissing of a hundred thousand reservation holders.

 

[kort677]

regardless of the numbers of teslas sold in the US affecting the possibility of someone getting the tax credit there are a few other factors involved. the most important factor is having the ability to show income and file for the tax credit. I am far from an expert in these matters but I do know that the government just doesn't cut a check to a buyer of a tesla, and that not all buyers have the ability to take advantage of the tax credit. consult a professional for more in depth advice for your personal situation.

 

[Troy]

I wouldn't be surprised if they just didn't deliver them right away

Could be if they have enough space to store the cars. They are expecting 5000 Model 3s per week by the end of this year. Let's say 12 days. That would be 5000/7*12= 8,571 units at the end of 2017. Do they have enough space? I don't know but I can tell you the following:

In last few years, the Fremont factory stopped production on 24, 25, 26, 27 and 31st December but the delivery centers remained open on all of these days except Christmas day. You can see here in column O that cars were delivered on 24, 26, 27 and 31st December. This was discussed before here.

 

[kort677]

Could be if they have enough space to store the cars. They are expecting 5000 Model 3s per week by the end of this year. Let's say 12 days. That would be 5000/7*12= 8,571 units at the end of 2017. Do they have enough space? I don't know but I can tell you the following:
.

with the huge number of reserved cars to be delivered why would they be storing any cars?

 

[Troy]

@kort677, is @Runt8 on your ignore list? It was his idea that Tesla might stop deliveries in order to avoid hitting the 200K limit in 2017. I'm not supporting this idea. In fact, I'm questioning it because it is not easy to store a few thousand cars anywhere. Even if they had a large empty field, how long would it take to park the cars there and then move them again? It would be an enormous task. I don't think delivery centers have that kind of capacity either.

 

[animorph]

No need to store them. Just sell them outside the US.

 

[Runt8]

@kort677, is @Runt8 on your ignore list? It was his idea that Tesla might stop deliveries in order to avoid hitting the 200K limit in 2017. I'm not supporting this idea. In fact, I'm questioning it because it is not easy to store a few thousand cars anywhere. Even if they had a large empty field, how long would it take to park the cars there and then move them again? It would be an enormous task. I don't think delivery centers have that kind of capacity either.

I was more thinking that Tesla would continue shipping them to delivery centers but not notify the owners to pick them up. Obviously this depends on the number of vehicles and size of the delivery center, but at least it would spread them out a bit.

 

[JeffK]

What is the most reliable source on when Tesla hits 200K?

Most reliable source is the financial docs.

The Q1 2018 is a sure thing.

 

[Runt8]

No need to store them. Just sell them outside the US.

This was already mentioned:

On Reddit, some people are suggesting that Tesla can just send some of the Model 3 cars to Canada in 2017. This is not a realistic idea. Tesla has an official delivery estimator on their website and it shows "Late 2018" for Canada. Also, Canada cars have different hardware which means last minute changes are not possible without pre-planning.

 

[Uncle Paul]

My magic 8 ball says...too early to tell.

 

[Troy]

Let's revisit this topic again in a few hours after Tesla's conference call. If Elon says something like 40,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, that would be very interesting because then it would mean 200K in late December is more likely unless S and X sales are negatively affected. Model 3 reservation holders should hope that Model S and X sales decline in the next few months so that Tesla is less likely to hit the 200,000 USA sales limit in 2017. Another interesting theory is if S sales drop sharply, Tesla might turn their full attention to ramping up Model 3 production quickly.

By the way, the following paragraph on the Model 3 FAQ page here is important:

When will international deliveries begin?
Every country has its own set of rules and regulations, which means that we effectively must build a different car for different markets. This means international Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2018, contingent upon regulatory approvals, starting with left-hand drive markets, followed by right-hand drive markets in 2019. We wish we could do all this faster and get you your Model 3 right away. No action is required from international reservation holders now. We will contact you closer to the start of production for your country.

 

[JeffK]

Let's revisit this topic again in a few hours after Tesla's conference call. If Elon says something like 40,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, that would be very interesting because then it would mean 200K in late December is more likely unless S and X sales are negatively affected. Model 3 reservation holders should hope that Model S and X sales decline in the next few months so that Tesla is less likely to hit the 200,000 USA sales limit in 2017. Another interesting theory is if S sales drop sharply, Tesla might turn their full attention to ramping up Model 3 production quickly.

By the way, the following paragraph on the Model 3 FAQ page here is important:

When will international deliveries begin?
Every country has its own set of rules and regulations, which means that we effectively must build a different car for different markets. This means international Model 3 deliveries will begin in late 2018, contingent upon regulatory approvals, starting with left-hand drive markets, followed by right-hand drive markets in 2019. We wish we could do all this faster and get you your Model 3 right away. No action is required from international reservation holders now. We will contact you closer to the start of production for your country.

Model S deliveries have been down as of Q1. Likely there will be only 40-50k S/X delivered in the US this year.

 

[Weezer Fan]

Well, crap. I really, really, really want AWD. But, I don't want to loose $3750 by waiting that long and missing out on the Fed Tax Credit. If I do that, and the price of AWD is $5000, that just made my AWD $8750.

I also did not plan on the long range battery, but now I am wondering if I should not go for it to make sure I get the full tax credit. As lambscoobydoo noted above, getting the full tax credit for the long ranger vs. 1/2 credit for the short ranger makes the long ranger $5250. My delivery estimate shows Jan-Mar for Standard, but, I will have to double check this when I get my notice to configure. And, we will need to see what the 2017 delivery totals are.

I am basing all of my assumptions on Tesla selling 200,000 cars in Jan 2018.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Here is the latest update after listening to the conference call:

They are about 9K units short of 200K at the end of 2017. So yes, Q4 2017 looks unlikely unless Model S and X sales increase and Model 3 ramp-up happens quicker than expected.

Interestingly both of these things could happen. Elon was very confident about Model 3 production ramp up. Also, during the conference call, Tesla confirmed they are receiving more Model S and X orders than expected since the Model 3 delivery event on 28 July and this was a surprise to them.

However, I don't think MS/MX can close the 9000 gap alone without an impressive Model 3 production ramp up. Therefore I have changed the percentages to 65/35% likely. I will update again after Q3 sales numbers are released in a month.

Optimistic Scenario (65% likely)

• $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
• $3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
• $1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019

Pessimistic Scenario (35% likely)

• $7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
• $3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
• $1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019

In the future, for the latest info on this issue, you can open THIS page and scroll all the way to the right. If you want to read the rules, open THIS page, scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section.

If you want to learn more about other incentives, including incentives only available in your country or state, open the incentives page on the Tesla website HERE, scroll down and make sure the country selection is correct.

 

[JeffK]

Hi. Here is the latest update after listening to the conference call:

They are about 9K units short of 200K at the end of 2017. So yes, Q4 2017 looks unlikely unless Model S and X sales increase and Model 3 ramp-up happens quicker than expected.

Interestingly both of these things could happen. Elon was very confident about Model 3 production ramp up. Also, during the conference call, Tesla confirmed they are receiving more Model S and X orders than expected since the Model 3 delivery event on 28 July and this was a surprise to them.

However, I don't think MS/MX can close the 9000 gap alone without an impressive Model 3 production ramp up. Therefore I have changed the percentages to 65/35% likely. I will update again after Q3 sales numbers are released in a month.

Optimistic Scenario (65% likely)

• $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
• $3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
• $1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019

Pessimistic Scenario (35% likely)

• $7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
• $3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
• $1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019

In the future, for the latest info on this issue, you can open THIS page and scroll all the way to the right. If you want to read the rules, open THIS page, scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section.

If you want to learn more about other incentives, including incentives only available in your country or state, open the incentives page on the Tesla website HERE, scroll down and make sure the country selection is correct.

I believe with S/X alone they will be 50-60k short. They'd have to have one heck of a Model 3 ramp up for come anywhere close to hitting 200k in Q4. This means hitting 5k per week in mid Sept.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say optimistic scenario is 100% likely. (feel free to quote me later if I'm incorrect)

 

[voip-ninja]

Investors punish companies for offering unrealistic guidance that they completely blow... even Tesla.

If they are comfortable that M3 ramp is on track then their estimates are probably close.

Even with a faster than expected M3 ramp up it's possible (likely) that they pull some shenanigans to push the tax rebate all the way into Q2 2018.