Federal Tax Credit - Will I get the Full $7500

[kingjamez]

Even with a faster than expected M3 ramp up it's possible (likely) that they pull some shenanigans to push the tax rebate all the way into Q2 2018.

This: I have not doubt that Tesla has thought this through to the very end. They stand to gain considerably if they play the phaseout timing right. Ideally, they would reach 200,000 on the first day of the quarter that they hit the top of the S-curve.

Tesla knows that people will buy more options / higher spec cars if the rebate is in full effect. They will be clever about it, have no doubt.

-Jim

 

[SageBrush]

This: I have not doubt that Tesla has thought this through to the very end. They stand to gain considerably if they play the phaseout timing right. Ideally, they would reach 200,000 on the first day of the quarter that they hit the top of the S-curve.

Tesla knows that people will buy more options / higher spec cars if the rebate is in full effect. They will be clever about it, have no doubt.

-Jim

Clever -- yes.
A full 3 month delay -- I really, really doubt it.

 

[Runt8]

To push the 200,000th delivery to Q2 2018 would require deliveries of the Model 3 to be similar to those of the S and X. With Tesla’s planned ramp up there’s no way this will happen.

 

[electracity]

If they are comfortable that M3 ramp is on track then their estimates are probably close.

The projected ramp should be viewed as the best case scenario. A quarter late on all the numbers being thrown around would be a great achievement by Tesla.

Musk's numbers and statement about production are targeted at convincing Tesla's suppliers to ramp aggressively.

 

[JeffK]

The only way Q2 2018 is possible is if they only hit 5000 Model 3s per week very late December or miss it entirely and delay late quarter shipments. Note that Elon said he was confident they'd hit 10,000 per week in 2018 but he didn't say that about the shorter term 5000 per week in 2017 thing.

Here's how it might play out...
Model S/X US sales will likely be around 140-145k by the end of the year. If we imagine a decent ramp up and they produce say 36,000 Model 3s by the end of the year then now we are up to around 180k. Here's the tricky part. Over the next quarter they will likely have 10-12k Model S/X that's a given. They are going to potentially produce 60 k Model 3s.

Options if they produce 60k Model 3s and can only deliver 10k in the US. They could ship to Canada or Mexico as they've always said priority was for "North America" They could store a few units in their new warehouses and at service centers close to their delivery spots, etc.

Only Tesla knows their numbers for sure. Elon has said previously that he believed nearly all the early reservation holders would be able to get the full tax credit. This goes completely out the window if dual motor deliveries don't start until near the end of Q2.

If the ramp up end up being better than expected, maybe we'll see the AWD version move up it's timeframe and the will try to get as many deliveries as possible in Q1 and AWD in Q2. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[jsrawa]

The only way Q2 2018 is possible is if they only hit 5000 Model 3s per week very late December or miss it entirely and delay late quarter shipments. Note that Elon said he was confident they'd hit 10,000 per week in 2018 but he didn't say that about the shorter term 5000 per week in 2017 thing.

Here's how it might play out...
Model S/X US sales will likely be around 140-145k by the end of the year. If we imagine a decent ramp up and they produce say 36,000 Model 3s by the end of the year then now we are up to around 180k. Here's the tricky part. Over the next quarter they will likely have 10-12k Model S/X that's a given. They are going to potentially produce 60 k Model 3s.

Options if they produce 60k Model 3s and can only deliver 10k in the US. They could ship to Canada or Mexico as they've always said priority was for "North America" They could store a few units in their new warehouses and at service centers close to their delivery spots, etc.

Only Tesla knows their numbers for sure. Elon has said previously that he believed nearly all the early reservation holders would be able to get the full tax credit. This goes completely out the window if dual motor deliveries don't start until near the end of Q2.

If the ramp up end up being better than expected, maybe we'll see the AWD version move up it's timeframe and the will try to get as many deliveries as possible in Q1 and AWD in Q2. We'll have to wait and see.

I just can't really see them starting to deliver to other countries just to delay another quarter. Also as a reservation holder I don't really want to be put off another 3 months just so those behind me can get their full fax credit. I know it sounds mean but they should have reserved earlier. You will still get some tax credit as the phaseout begins so it's not really as bad as it's made out to be.

 

[Troy]

Hi. I'm calculating 157,215 units sold in the USA excluding the Model 3 from 2010 until the end of 2017.

2010 and 2011:
590

2012 to 2017:
2,555
17,825
16,689
25,202
44,334
50,020

 

[JeffK]

Also as a reservation holder I don't really want to be put off another 3 months just so those behind me can get their full fax credit.

What do you think is happening with RWD models... If you want an AWD model and you preordered the first day, there will be people skipping in front of you already.

 

[Skione65]

I just can't really see them starting to deliver to other countries just to delay another quarter. Also as a reservation holder I don't really want to be put off another 3 months just so those behind me can get their full fax credit. I know it sounds mean but they should have reserved earlier. You will still get some tax credit as the phaseout begins so it's not really as bad as it's made out to be.

@jsrawa,

Well then.....I would be willing to wait an additional 3 months just so others/more could qualify for the FULL tax credit, but I guess that's just me. We are all in this together aren't we?

Regards,

Ski

 

[jsrawa]

What do you think is happening with RWD models... If you want an AWD model and you preordered the first day, there will be people skipping in front of you already.

True, if I had it my way production would have been P and D first but I don't run the show.

@jsrawa,

Well then.....I would be willing to wait an additional 3 months just so others/more could qualify for the FULL tax credit, but I guess that's just me. We are all in this together aren't we?

Regards,

Ski

To each their own, fair enough.

 

[bmzl]

@jsrawa,

Well then.....I would be willing to wait an additional 3 months just so others/more could qualify for the FULL tax credit, but I guess that's just me. We are all in this together aren't we?

Regards,

Ski

I think you were just told otherwise. :-(

 

[jsrawa]

I think you were just told otherwise. :-(

Sorry, not trying to be inconsiderate but I doubt I'm the only one.

It doesn't matter what I think, I doubt the logistics of the international sales at that point would even make it possible.

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon has said previously that he believed nearly all the early reservation holders would be able to get the full tax credit. This goes completely out the window if dual motor deliveries don't start until near the end of Q2.

And every early reservation hold will be able to get the credit, as long as they don't order AWD. He never said that every early reservation holder would get the credit if you wanted to wait for the AWD, performance, cream colored interior etc.

So you will be able to get it; just maybe not with your preferred options.

I almost feel like getting a First Production unit ASAP; and then sell it and get an AWD version once they are available. I just don't know if the "rarity" of a Model 3 would make selling it less painful than the normal depreciation... (If I had made two reservations on 3/31/16 I would probably do that, but I put the other $1,000 into TSLA to help pay for my Model 3.)

 

[Weezer Fan]

And every early reservation hold will be able to get the credit, as long as they don't order AWD. He never said that every early reservation holder would get the credit if you wanted to wait for the AWD, performance, cream colored interior etc.

So you will be able to get it; just maybe not with your preferred options.

I almost feel like getting a First Production unit ASAP; and then sell it and get an AWD version once they are available. I just don't know if the "rarity" of a Model 3 would make selling it less painful than the normal depreciation... (If I had made two reservations on 3/31/16 I would probably do that, but I put the other $1,000 into TSLA to help pay for my Model 3.)

Today I think I will pull the trigger and buy the first version. (See my post above). If I really miss the AWD, I can sell my 3 and buy a Y when it comes out. I have never done the switch out to snow tires thing, so I don't know what's involved. It sounds like a PITA.