Final Model 3 reveal may not happen before production begins in July 2017, per Elon

[stefan.bc]

They may. They just haven't to date. My work order says I'm on the list for a resolution.. whatever that's worth.

Good news. Maybe they are working on it. Can you give more details so I can have something to say to the SC?

 

[ohmman]

Good news. Maybe they are working on it. Can you give more details so I can have something to say to the SC?

Not really. I went back and found the actual phrasing which is a little less enthusiastic than what I posted above:

Test drove vehicle in low light conditions and verified customer concern. Found vehicle to have large amounts of ghosting when other vehicles headlights or stoplights shine through the front windshield. Reflections (ghosting) occur in all laminated glass to varying degrees and affect some more than others. A small handful of customers have experienced this phenomenon. We are investigating the root cause, and you will be given priority once a solution is available.

Emphasis mine.

 

[KP623]

What delay? They just announced that they are still on schedule to meet what Musk himself described as an impossible deadline. You couldn't have hoped for better news.

The updated estimator pushes my delivery date to Jan 2019 from Oct 2018, which I think is a long time.

 

[ecarfan]

The more they delay, the more I am considering to purchase a different car. By the time my reservation is put into actual production, I may have other options (cars) to choose from.

I don't see how what Elon said could be called a "delay". Production is targeted to start July 2017. That is not a delay. The first cars go to Tesla/SpaceX employees. That has been known for over a year. The shareholders letter describes the production ramp up targets. Not a delay.

 

[X Fan]

Or, if the HUD is the holdup, maybe they want to have it ready to deploy on the X/S line shortly after their announcement/reveal.

Makes sense and why I'm keeping powder dry right now for another X. New interior plus HUD.

 

[JHWJR]

Musk said in the earnings call tonight, and not for the first time, that they are "anti-selling" the Model 3. They are trying to keep folks buying the Model S and the Model X. They can't sell air, and they have enough employees and deposits on Model 3's that there is no benefit to stirring interest. They won't provide information and options earlier than they have to when anyone who orders at this point will have to wait a long time already.

 

[jsmay311]

This is so utterly bizarre. Only show the public a car after production begins? I guess Tesla could get away with it in this case since internal employees will be getting the early builds.

But just 3 months ago Elon was saying reveal part 3 was only 3-4 months away, and now all of the sudden they've got this new crazy plan?

Idk how anyone interprets that as anything other than bad news and a likely indication of problems behind the scenes.

Edit:

Musk said in the earnings call tonight, and not for the first time, that they are "anti-selling" the Model 3. They are trying to keep folks buying the Model S and the Model X. They can't sell air, and they have enough employees and deposits on Model 3's that there is no benefit to stirring interest. They won't provide information and options earlier than they have to when anyone who orders at this point will have to wait a long time already.

OK. That explanation is at least plausible.

But the sudden change of plans is still suspicious. Makes me wonder if Elon is just trying to put lipstick on a pig with that explanation.

What would have changed in the last 3 months to cause such an unconventional deviation from plan? A sharp drop off in S/X orders?

 

[ecarfan]

Only show the public a car after production begins?

Keep in mind that the first 5,000 or so Model 3 cars are going to employees (my estimate). Since production has to ramp up gradually, that is likely several months worth of production. I'm sure that by the time non-employee reservation holders can configure their Model 3 they will be able to see an actual car, since those who are first in line will be on the West Coast (as stated by Tesla).

Idk how anyone interprets that as anything other than bad news and a likely indication of problems behind the scenes.

I don't interpret it as "bad news". You are free to interpret it however you want.

 

[Petra]

What would have changed in the last 3 months to cause such an unconventional deviation from plan? A sharp drop off in S/X orders?

Or a higher than expected rate of Model 3 reservations converting to highly profitable Model S and X sales?

 

[Krugerrand]

But the sudden change of plans is still suspicious.

You're new to Tesla, eh? Sudden change of plans is Tesla's middle name.

 

[Thierry]

It's a long way to the Reveal three
It's a long way to go

 

[evp]

I don't see how what Elon said could be called a "delay". Production is targeted to start July 2017. That is not a delay. The first cars go to Tesla/SpaceX employees. That has been known for over a year. The shareholders letter describes the production ramp up targets. Not a delay.

Agreed. I was prepared to see the first few Model 3s delivered to customers in the last week of 2017. As far as I'm concerned, this is an amazing pull forward of the schedule.

 

[Alketi]

They probably don't want to get even more people worked up about the model 3 in Q2. They need people to keep buying their current cars.

In retrospect I think this is it in a nutshell. It's essentially the same theme since the reveal last year: downplay the Model 3 as it's still months away and they need to keep selling S/X to make everything work. So, why reveal/hype the Model 3 in March when it's still not going to ship until September?

The only kink in the plan, I assume, is that they'll have to keep the Mar-Jun prototypes off the public roads, otherwise they'll reveal themselves. And, it's never advisable to reveal oneself.

 

[alseTrick]

Fine, show the final reveal in July. But give us some sort of detailed update at the end of March, please.

Why?

As long as you know what you're buying before you buy it, what does March matter to you?

 

[AustinPowers]

Or a higher than expected rate of Model 3 reservations converting to highly profitable Model S and X sales?

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

 

[Model 3]

But the sudden change of plans is still suspicious.

What change? He never said that they are going to show us the car in about March. Remember that "unveil#2" was about AP2, and that it would get to Model 3 also. So they still may have an unveil#3 in about March time, but we now know that they will not show us a more production ready version then, as we all had believed that they would. Not until unveil#4 - or #5? We know Elon loves 5 parts trilogies

So what will then unveil#3 be? I don't know, but if the speculation about an HUD is right is may be reviled on TMS/X and so "and this will also be on the TM3 from the start". Or it may be something else.

 

[WarpedOne]

Unveil #3 is simple: show the final car.
You do the unveil to stir up expectations and demand.
If you do not need/want more demand, you postpone the unveil as far as you can.

 

[Model 3]

Unveil #3 is simple: show the final car.

No, that is the final unveil. He has now said that there will be an unveil#3 in the spring, and that the final car will not be shown until around production start in July, whatever that unveil# is.

 

[sparkypete]

Most of us are delaying decisions on our next car purchase based on our hope that the model 3 will be just what we hope it will be. If Tesla delay a full reveal longer than the end of March I think people will start to feel they are being taken for granted.

I know that commercially companies don't want to reveal details too early to avoid competitors copying their innovations but there is normally a press launch at a motor show months before production starts so there is time to generate interest and ultimately orders for the start of the production run.

Tesla don't need that initial promotion period if reservations turn into orders but peoples' patience is limited.

 

[timk225]

'Pencils down' was months ago. They aren't making design tweaks...they just don't want to show their HUD until last minute so other manufacturers take longer to catch up.

Why?

As long as you know what you're buying before you buy it, what does March matter to you?

Because March is sooner than July.
And as for comments about Tesla wanting to keep their HUD secret as long as possible, does anyone really care? Does Tesla think no other auto manufacturer has ever looked into making a HUD?

Either way, I do not want a HUD in my car. Normal gauges or LCD gauge screens in the Model S locations only.