Final Model 3 reveal may not happen before production begins in July 2017, per Elon

[garsh]

If Tesla delay a full reveal longer than the end of March I think people will start to feel they are being taken for granted.

If Tesla delays the *car* longer, then people will start to feel being taken advantage of.
But delaying the reveal until production begins? If production starts on-time, I don't care. And I can't understand why anybody else would. They're still planning to start production in July, AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. This is so NOT Tesla's Modus operandi that I'm having trouble believing that it's actually happening. I am shocked, amazed, and quite pleasantly surprised that I might get my Model 3 on something close to the original schedule.

but there is normally a press launch at a motor show months before production starts so there is time to generate interest and ultimately orders for the start of the production run.

And that happened in March 2016. It generated interest, and allowed Tesla to determine just how much real interest there was. Remember, it was because of the high interest from that first reveal that they decided to significantly pull-forward and ramp-up their production plans for the Model 3.

 

[Model 3]

They're still planning to start production in July, AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED.

Actually no, that is not what was originally planned (as far as anyone outside of Tesla know). The time-line we had when reserving the car was "Start of production in late 2017", and that is now "Start of production in July 2017", with a ramp-up to full mass-production from Sept. 2017. So this is the opposite of an delay

 

[thx1139]

Really what does it matter. The Model 3 is going to look like what we have seen before. This isnt a car that may require design tweaks for the new technology like the the X and S did. I think the only thing that could be substantially different is the interior will end up being more like other cars. Thats about it.

 

[mhan00]

Because March is sooner than July.
And as for comments about Tesla wanting to keep their HUD secret as long as possible, does anyone really care? Does Tesla think no other auto manufacturer has ever looked into making a HUD?

Either way, I do not want a HUD in my car. Normal gauges or LCD gauge screens in the Model S locations only.

You should probably cancel your reservation then, or at least be prepared to. It's fairly obvious now that there won't be a dash display. It was pretty clearly stated there will only be one display, the center screen. Maybe there will be a HUD as an option, but since you don't want one that wouldn't be a selling point for you.

 

[sandpiper]

Musk said in the earnings call tonight, and not for the first time, that they are "anti-selling" the Model 3. They are trying to keep folks buying the Model S and the Model X. They can't sell air, and they have enough employees and deposits on Model 3's that there is no benefit to stirring interest. They won't provide information and options earlier than they have to when anyone who orders at this point will have to wait a long time already.

This makes a whole lot of sense. And I'll go further. I think they've got a fairly significant update of the S in the offing. They'll have to do that to prevent people from abandoning the S for the 3 in large numbers. And they're probably not ready to reveal it - so they're holding up on revealing the 3, which may carry some similar features. I'm thinking mostly about the interior, and the somewhat dated CPU in the S console.

 

[sparkypete]

I hoping for something more like the Jaguar i-Pace interior.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You should probably cancel your reservation then, or at least be prepared to. It's fairly obvious now that there won't be a dash display. It was pretty clearly stated there will only be one display, the center screen. Maybe there will be a HUD as an option, but since you don't want one that wouldn't be a selling point for you.

Having driven a Prius, with the key gauges on the left of a central display, I wouldn't mind that at all. I am not a bird.

However, I expect that the single, central display means that it's more likely that there will be at least a basic HUD in every car. Tesla likes to sell on safety, HUDs are good for safety (because they keep the eyes up) and hangs of the central display won't compromise safety.

 

[dsvick]

The only kink in the plan, I assume, is that they'll have to keep the Mar-Jun prototypes off the public roads, otherwise they'll reveal themselves. And, it's never advisable to reveal oneself.

They'll still need to have some of them on the roads for real world driving and testing, they can't so everything on the test track. So there is a good chance that there'll be some pictures popping up in the next couple of months, there's also a chance it'll be heavily camouflaged and the windows will be tinted so there won't be much detail to be had.

 

[dsvick]

What change? He never said that they are going to show us the car in about March. Remember that "unveil#2" was about AP2, and that it would get to Model 3 also. So they still may have an unveil#3 in about March time, but we now know that they will not show us a more production ready version then, as we all had believed that they would. Not until unveil#4 - or #5? We know Elon loves 5 parts trilogies

So what will then unveil#3 be? I don't know, but if the speculation about an HUD is right is may be reviled on TMS/X and so "and this will also be on the TM3 from the start". Or it may be something else.

That's what I think too. In a month or so they'll announce the HUD for the S and X and say that it will be included in the 3 as well.

Actually no, that is not what was originally planned (as far as anyone outside of Tesla know). The time-line we had when reserving the car was "Start of production in late 2017", and that is now "Start of production in July 2017", with a ramp-up to full mass-production from Sept. 2017. So this is the opposite of an delay

It depends on what you consider "late" 2017 to mean. Either way, they certainly aren't behind schedule!!

 

[Az_Rael]

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

You'd be surprised. Some people in the market for a 3 (like myself) were expecting to spend around $60k on a very well equipped 3. That is getting within spitting distance of a new Model S 60. Granted, the S would be a base model, but I think people here have made that switch. I bought a CPO S for the price I would pay for a 3, and I know several 3 reservation holders here have done that.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

Before I got my S, my only requirements were:
1. All electric
2. AWD
3. Ability to do long distance road trips

Until now, only the Model S and Model X fulfilled those requirements. Now the Model 3 will meet those requirements at half the price. Our household has reservations for three Model 3s and we already have one S in the garage and another S on order, replacing one that was just sold last month.

 

[sandpiper]

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

Not at all true. There are a lot of folks (like me) who CAN and did buy and S, but would have no issue with a less costly car. Personally, I feel no need to buy a 100K vehicle just because I can. Had it been available at the time that I bought the S, I would likely have bought a 3 instead. And I'm close to time to swap out, and I'm sitting on the fence. I want to see the 3 before I decide.

 

[ohmman]

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

Plenty of examples on this forum of people doing just that. Also, I'm moving from an S to a 3. For many of us, a smaller sedan is preferable to the quite large Model S. I know people in San Francisco who can't fit an S in their garage.

What you can afford isn't necessarily in line with what you want.

 

[ecarfan]

But the sudden change of plans is still suspicious

Your mindset appears to be based on numerous speculative posts on TMC that there would definitely be a "final Model 3 reveal"in spring 2017, something that Tesla never stated would happen. Elon speculated on the possibility but he never committed to it. Now, when he says there probably won't be another Model 3 reveal event until around the time production starts in July 2017 you conclude that there has been a "sudden change of plans". That is not the case.

Either way, I do not want a HUD in my car. Normal gauges or LCD gauge screens in the Model S locations only

Tesla has been very clear that the Model 3 will only have one screen, in the center of the dash, as shown in the prototypes last year. If you want screens like in the S then the 3 is not for you. But be aware that it is possible that in the future the S/X dash could change dramatically. Tesla is driving relentlessly towards autonomous driving and conventional driver displays may disappear. That does not mean that you will not be able to "manually" drive your Tesla. Of course you will. But the drivers display that is currently used may change. That is my personal opinion.

But delaying the reveal until production begins? If production starts on-time, I don't care. And I can't understand why anybody else would. They're still planning to start production in July, AS ORIGINALLY PLANNED. This is so NOT Tesla's Modus operandi that I'm having trouble believing that it's actually happening. I am shocked, amazed, and quite pleasantly surprised that I might get my Model 3 on something close to the original schedule.

Well said.

I would suggest to those who are unhappy that the Model 3 in final form may not be shown until around the start of production in July to keep in mind that this is not a "normal" auto production start because it is for internal employee orders only. It is not for public reservations. So Tesla could start showing the 3 in final form in July to employees who have reservations before Tesla shows the final version of the car to the public.

Model 3 deliveries to public reservation holders will likely not start until fall 2017, in my opinion, since there are thousands of employee reservations that will be delivered first. Tesla has been very clear that employee orders will be delivered first.

 

[Foxhound199]

The updated estimator pushes my delivery date to Jan 2019 from Oct 2018, which I think is a long time.

Don't get me wrong, I think the work they've done on that estimator is commendable, but it's all just a guess at this point. We still don't know much about how this roll-out is going to work, but there wasn't much to be pessimistic about in yesterday's report. I don't think a lot of people honestly believed we would see hundreds of thousands of Model 3s hitting the road this year.

 

[Petra]

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

So, you're saying that you haven't noticed the surprising number of "couldn't wait, bought a CPO" and "couldn't wait, bought a base S60" posts appearing here in TMC as well as in various Tesla owner groups? At least in California (which, as I recall, accounts for something like 25% of deliveries), a brand new base Model S 60 starts at around $61k after incentives. Heck, if the Model 3 had been available a year and a half ago, then I probably wouldn't have ordered my Model S 70D--just because you have the money doesn't necessarily mean that you want to blow it on a car.

 

[WarpedOne]

Yep, 60, 70, 75kWh versions of S and X will get much less love when 3 is real.
I expect the demand for them will drop so much that Tesla will cancel them.
If not immediately then after MS redesign for 2170 battery.

 

[ohmman]

Yep, 60, 70, 75kWh versions of S and X will get much less love when 3 is real.
I expect the demand for them will drop so much that Tesla will cancel them.
If not immediately then after MS redesign for 2170 battery.

On this, I strongly disagree.

The X is a vastly different vehicle than the 3. It'll likely be pretty well separated from the Y as well, though that's to be seen.

The differentiators for the S will be forthcoming, but there are plenty of owners who want a larger sedan, not a smaller one. I think that market will remain viable as well.

 

[WarpedOne]

I won't argue, it just my hunch. Time will tell.

 

[alseTrick]

Because March is sooner than July.

So you don't actually have a reasonable answer.