The reveal will happen before the employees get their cars (indeed, if the reveal is at the start of production then by definition nobody will have received their cars before the reveal). That doesn't mean the employees can't order them before that, perhaps under NDA. The Model X had it's final reveal simultaneous with the first shipments. There only needs to be 2-3 weeks between ordering and delivery, and in fact they could even start producing particular models of cars and match them up with employees who ordered that config (who knows, perhaps the employees will have less choices of config). In any case, they certainly don't need to have a reveal in May.
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The reveal will happen before the employees get their cars (indeed, if the reveal is at the start of production then by definition nobody will have received their cars before the reveal). That doesn't mean the employees can't order them before that, perhaps under NDA. The Model X had it's final reveal simultaneous with the first shipments. There only needs to be 2-3 weeks between ordering and delivery, and in fact they could even start producing particular models of cars and match them up with employees who ordered that config (who knows, perhaps the employees will have less choices of config). In any case, they certainly don't need to have a reveal in May.
"Pencils down" simply means that original design goals and tasks were completed - they reached v1.0, closed all open questions, filled in all the details, counted all the bolts, nuts and rivets, measured and weighed all the wires. Design done.
"Pencils down" does not mean design freeze. As they do additional thinking, learn new things, test new XYZ components, design goals get changed and pencils are picked up again to close those changes. When they start producing the cars, unforeseen problems will be cought and pencils will get some major love again.
"Pencils down" does not mean design freeze. As they do additional thinking, learn new things, test new XYZ components, design goals get changed and pencils are picked up again to close those changes. When they start producing the cars, unforeseen problems will be cought and pencils will get some major love again.
MiamiNole
Member
This. I interpreted pencils down to mean that they have A design, not the final design.
I'm trying to be optimistic, July seems so far off. A related question is when will we ever learn where we are in the queue? Or will Tesla never give a hint, we just get some email at some random time asking us to place our order? It's tough being impatient and optimistic.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Judging from past history, other than from the number (which they changed now such that it does not reveal queue position), there will be no way to know exact place in queue. Tesla will process the queue in batches, contacting people to configure when it is their turn. So a whole bunch of people will get contacted at practically the same time.
Even if they showed the queue number it is relatively meaningless anyways, given they are releasing based on location (west coast first, then east coast, then other countries, etc).
From past experience there will be dozens of threads and thousands of posts here of people trying to decipher why different people are able to place orders when, and Tesla will give no information.
strider
Active Member
Much digital ink will be spilled on these pages trying to figure it out. Tesla will batch the orders based on parts availability (we have lots of grey seats but are short on black seats so build grey ones now), geography (trying to make sure they have full truck/train loads going to specific areas), options (Elon has said they'll prioritize higher optioned cars in order to increase cash flow early on), etc.
Based on how much grief they received during Model S roll out where they gave out queue numbers only to have people squawk that P499's car was getting built before P301's, I doubt they will give out queue numbers at all. You'll just get an e-mail at some point to configure. Then you'll get another e-mail at some later point to finalize and sign the contract (making your deposit non-refundable).
There's no such thing as a "FINAL" design, as Model 3 will keep improving similarly to Model S/X designs.
What I think pencil down meant was arriving at a design tentatively frozen for the purposes of:
1 - Outsourced parts specs. You can't go changing part specs after initial orders are placed.
2 - Production process validation. Tesla will avoid production problems caused by design inefficient to built like the plague.
3 - Changes for the initial release will only be allowed in response to specific problems found that prevent successful initial mass production or serious functionality issues. Any changes outside of those serious issues are queued as improvement for after mass production is achieved.
At the same time, I would imagine those designers have bigger fish to fry once pencils down for M3 takes place. Like Model Y/mini bus/pickup/semi/... designs.
Seriously innovative ideas that are applicable to Model S/X will be tried on those first. Lower production levels=lesser impact to production and MS/MX serves as proving ground to M3. If a mistake is made, easier to remedy 1000 MS than 50000 M3 !
What I think pencil down meant was arriving at a design tentatively frozen for the purposes of:
1 - Outsourced parts specs. You can't go changing part specs after initial orders are placed.
2 - Production process validation. Tesla will avoid production problems caused by design inefficient to built like the plague.
3 - Changes for the initial release will only be allowed in response to specific problems found that prevent successful initial mass production or serious functionality issues. Any changes outside of those serious issues are queued as improvement for after mass production is achieved.
At the same time, I would imagine those designers have bigger fish to fry once pencils down for M3 takes place. Like Model Y/mini bus/pickup/semi/... designs.
Seriously innovative ideas that are applicable to Model S/X will be tried on those first. Lower production levels=lesser impact to production and MS/MX serves as proving ground to M3. If a mistake is made, easier to remedy 1000 MS than 50000 M3 !
If the reveal doesn't happen until after production starts and employees have access to the configurator, that would open up the possibility of employees leaking information to the public before the reveal. I don't see Tesla putting themselves in that position.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Other than the Space X employees (and perhaps showroom/service employees), current Tesla employees already have access to a lot of Model 3 information, but so far none of it had been leaked. So I'm guessing the NDAs are working.
In that case, NDAs are the worst thing ever. Ban NDAs. Really, the worst.
It's going to be tough to keep it under wraps when you go beyond management and down to all of your sales force.
My guess is that Tesla factory workers and upper management at all companies will get their cars then the cars for showrooms will be built. Once the showroom cars are built the rest of the employees will get theirs while normal customers configure their cars. I can see test drives being scheduled when you get your invite to configure your car. I think they will end up with each showroom having a couple of cars for test drives and display before people in that region have to configure their cars. With their expected production numbers it would not delay other orders significantly to do so. My guess is when the do the next reveal they will announce that all showrooms in the USA have a 3 that will be on display and your invite to configure will allow you to schedule a test drive.
alseTrick
Active Member
I don't get this at all.
You're bothered by the fact that Tesla may wait until July to release final details of the car? Why? You have never known when Tesla was going to release final details, and now that you do know a more specified time it's a problem?
If you don't buy a 3, are you not going to buy a new vehicle at all? Because if you're looking at buying a new car regardless, it shouldn't effect any of your life decisions. If you are only interested in buying a 3 and will just reinvest your 3 savings or use it for vacation, or what have you, the <5 months between now and July isn't going to make much difference.
Right. Thanks.
Yeah, to clarify my earlier post, I really don't care about the (refundable) $1000. But buying vs not buying a $35k-$55k car in the next 8-12 months IS a big deal financially. And aside from the financial aspect, I would like to be able to plan my future car ownership sooner rather than later.
To kind of recap, my objections are essentially these two:
1. Needlessly (my characterization/interpretation) delaying the release of information that would allow prospective customers to make informed decisions about their future car ownership.
Musk previously said publicly that "Part 3" would happen around the beginning of spring '17. And according to reporting, they're building a batch of pilot (production-intent) vehicles this month for production validation, so they could have some of those cars ready for public display on that originally-stated schedule. But instead now we're told (in a rather off-hand way) that it'll be a few more months wait, with no explanation given for the change.
Now, I know Tesla is no typical car company and Musk is no typical CEO, but when a multi-billion dollar company says "we're gonna do a reveal in X months", and then X months later they say, "meh... actually instead maybe we'll do the reveal in another X months... maybe" with no explanation, I don't think that reflects well, particularly when your prospective customers have been eagerly awaiting this event.
2. This delay vs the previously stated timeline means that the chances for early reservation holders to be able to see a Model 3 in person or get a test drive before ordering are significantly diminished.
Granted, I know that even if there was a reveal event in March/April, there would still be no guarantee of having production-intent models in stores and/or available for test drives before production. But it at least seemed very doable. But the further out the production design reveal is pushed, the more remote this possibility becomes.
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The only reason for an earlier reveal is to generate additional reservations. Kinda unnecessary.
If you feel it's a long wait till July then it's a long wait till July; extra info isn't going to change you perception of the passage of Tesla time.
Suck it up. Start reading a long book. Stop refreshing TMC. Try to be Zen.
If you feel it's a long wait till July then it's a long wait till July; extra info isn't going to change you perception of the passage of Tesla time.
Suck it up. Start reading a long book. Stop refreshing TMC. Try to be Zen.
Im not bothered by the July-ish timeframe of the 3rd reveal, its almost been 11 months since I preordered and while some days made it seem as though the wait was going to be eternal, it has passed relatively quickly, and the final few months until July will likely be the same. It breaks up the final wait a little bit better anyways, final reveal in July and hopefully taking delivery in the January/February timeframe of 2018.
The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:
- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth
As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.
Thoughts?
The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:
- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth
As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.
Thoughts?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
From reveal #1 in March last year until production, how many reveals will there be ?
This is a rhetorical question.
This is a rhetorical question.
I am betting we will have zero visibility as to how the queue is working. At some point, Tesla will start letting folks into the configuration screen in batches via email. We won't know how big the batches are, or what the criteria will be. They gave queue numbers to Model S reservation holders and people just ended up flipping out when others with higher numbers than them got their cars first. No queue numbers were used during the X launch.
My theory is the reservation queue is only going to set when you get let in to configure. After that, Tesla will build the cars based on who finalized first, what options you pick, and where you live. It makes sense for them to batch all P loaded models from the west coast first, etc.
Tesla has more than enough reservations for now. They want to sell S and X.
The longer they hold back the details the more information they have on the Gigafactory cell production, the more opportunity they'll have to make small tweaks, the less any delay will matter, and the more space they'll have in the media to themselves.
Nissan is expected to reveal the Gen 2 Leaf in April and I'm sure that Tesla would like to reveal after that.
The longer they hold back the details the more information they have on the Gigafactory cell production, the more opportunity they'll have to make small tweaks, the less any delay will matter, and the more space they'll have in the media to themselves.
Nissan is expected to reveal the Gen 2 Leaf in April and I'm sure that Tesla would like to reveal after that.
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