Final Model 3 reveal may not happen before production begins in July 2017, per Elon

[ecarfan]

The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal

I suggest that you do not make unwarranted assumptions, so as not to be disappointed. You really cannot estimate where you are in line, except that you are behind Tesla/SpaceX employees (though not necessarily behind overseas employees) and behind US West Coast and then US East Coast current Tesla owners who have a 3 reservation. You are likely behind Canadian Tesla owners. (Note: I think it has come out that about 7% of all Model 3 reservations are from current Tesla owners, I assume that is worldwide. Use that information as you will.)

That is all I can say with any degree of confidence. Whether that makes you 30,000th in line, or 200,000th in line, I have no idea.

 

[Pieter Knispel]

I suggest that you do not make unwarranted assumptions, so as not to be disappointed. You really cannot estimate where you are in line, except that you are behind Tesla/SpaceX employees (though not necessarily behind overseas employees) and behind US West Coast and then US East Coast current Tesla owners who have a 3 reservation. You are likely behind Canadian Tesla owners. (Note: I think it has come out that about 7% of all Model 3 reservations are from current Tesla owners, I assume that is worldwide. Use that information as you will.)

That is all I can say with any degree of confidence. Whether that makes you 30,000th in line, or 200,000th in line, I have no idea.

I suppose as this depends on what your definition is for "in line." I based the 105,000th piece off the fact that I ordered before the reveal, and at the end of the reveal, Elon stated that there had been 115,000 reservations to that point. So I might be a little off but from a strictly date and time perspective, I am somewhere in that range.

I do hear you about the assumptions and whatnot, there are so many variables that play into this its very hard to understand what number in line I am from an actual build and delivery perspective, but I just want to try and get some idea of a range. You're right that it might lead to disappointment, but I am mentally preparing for the later date, with a slim hope that the earlier date, or somewhere before the end estimate, is when I would actually take delivery!

 

[calisnow]

They are probably working and re-working the interior design (remember that Volvo hire is relatively recent) as well as working on the AR/HUD that is 99.999999999% likely to debut on the S and X shortly before the final reveal of the 3 (or at the same time).

We are also likely in for a redesign of the dash of the S&X to go with the unified airflow and AR/HUD theme of the 3 - and I imagine they are working on that also - and do not want to Osborne S&X sales any earlier than necessary.

 

[brianman]

Another perspective...

I'm excited to see the base specs (and hopefully all configuration options) before September. Summer is gonna be crazy this year.

 

[M0DEL³]

The more they delay, the more I am considering to purchase a different car...

Delay? Seriously? You need to recheck your facts, Tesla has always said that deliveries should begin by the end of the year. They are now saying possibly sooner...

Your comment reminds me of this...

 

[Jayc]

Im not bothered by the July-ish timeframe of the 3rd reveal, its almost been 11 months since I preordered and while some days made it seem as though the wait was going to be eternal, it has passed relatively quickly, and the final few months until July will likely be the same. It breaks up the final wait a little bit better anyways, final reveal in July and hopefully taking delivery in the January/February timeframe of 2018.

The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:

- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth

As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.

Thoughts?

I have to agree with most of what you say.

I can understand Tesla will not want to disclose exact formula for determining sequence but those of us who ordered early but have been thrown far back in the global queue due to region + RHD would, l'm sure, be waiting for some indication of how long we will have to wait.

If you ordered yours in the US, quite certain reveal 3 will leave you with a reasonably good estimation of when to expect yours so it is only fair that those of us with an an international order be given some indication of where we stand in all this.

 

[eisbock]

The 3 is more like the S than the X. No automatic doors, no Falcon Wing Doors. If you aren't an employee or a current Tesla owner, I wouldn't worry too much about getting a buggy Model 3. Even if you do Tesla will make it right.

It'll only take half a dozen trips to the service center!

 

[internalaudit]

Do we find out about the tentative delivery date right after configuration or will Tesla provide a timeline months after?

So employees, followed by those out on the West Coast who put a deposit will get to the configuration stage first (before everyone else does) and then depending on the options configured, will get a future notification letting them know of the tentative delivery date?

When exactly does one finalized the configuration because that seems to be the only time Tesla will use its algorithm and figure out this person's position for delivery.

Maybe people will delay finalizing configuration if they find out what add ons to include that will help them jump the queue?

 

[gregincal]

Do we find out about the tentative delivery date right after configuration or will Tesla provide a timeline months after?

So employees, followed by those out on the West Coast who put a deposit will get to the configuration stage first (before everyone else does) and then depending on the options configured, will get a future notification letting them know of the tentative delivery date?

When exactly does one finalized the configuration because that seems to be the only time Tesla will use its algorithm and figure out this person's position for delivery.

Maybe people will delay finalizing configuration if they find out what add ons to include that will help them jump the queue?

With the Model S it was pretty clear, they just put the dates on the configuration page that various options would start production (i.e. small battery production starts February 2018). If you choose an option that goes into later production then once they start producing them you are mixed into the queue. If you get to configuration and choose only the options that are currently being produced then you get your car soon.

 

[internalaudit]

^ Seems it will be a reverse process for M3's where going for a lot of higher margin options will accelerate ones car's production though I still don't understand how Tesla is going to do it.

In the Model S' case, it makes sense why it works the way you explained it as that would be the case for a lot of customized products. If the specific option is not available, then you will have to wait until it is available.

For the M3, I'm at a loss as to how Elon et al. will put together that algorithm when customer customization will be very dynamic and with the volume of prospective buyers, the sheer number of last minute changes to configuration that may affect that algo.

I guess Tesla hinted the M3 will be much simpler to build so maybe all those customizations will be ready as soon as customization starts for Tesla employees and then those on the West Coast. I'm not in a rush to get my M3 but just curious as to how Tesla will pull this off.

 

[gregincal]

No, it wasn't a reverse process, when non-signature Model S configuration began in the fall of 2012 if you wanted the car soon you could only select 85kWh battery and air suspension. Selecting a 60kWh battery delayed you until January, 45kWh battery or standard suspension until April. All the other options were freely available for choice. I really expect something similar for the 3. They can make this sort of decision on any option they want (for instance, although they didn't, they could have said that only cars with the technology package would be produced right away, and non-tech package configurations would start production in February).

As you select options, the estimated production date at the bottom of the page changes.

 

[Snow Drift]

They may just bundle so that the number of variations is less.

We don't need 10 options, just a couple of bundles that include a lot of stuff.

The current set up offers too many expensive options a la carte.

For M3 you get base (solid roof), premium (premium, cold, glass) or limited (premium, cold, hifi, moonroof), and pick AP and how many motors. Color, spoilers and rims are accessories.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I'm really hoping they stick with everyone orders their car as wanted, and not go the bundle route of other manufacturers.
Time will tell.

 

[Az_Rael]

I'm really hoping they stick with everyone orders their car as wanted, and not go the bundle route of other manufacturers.
Time will tell.

They are now bundling interior trim options on the S and X, so I would expect bundling for the 3 when it releases

 

[alseTrick]

They are now bundling interior trim options on the S and X, so I would expect bundling for the 3 when it releases

Agreed.

Who knows how many seat and headliner colors, and decor options will actually be available though, especially at launch.

I hope Tesla gets rid of the headliner option. I feel it's unnecessary. If you get black seats you get a black headliner (tan seats and tan headliner, white and white, gray and gray, etc). I also don't care if there are only two leather/vegan colors: black and light (be it tan, gray, white). I just want a light color for temperature purposes.

 

[Model 3]

We don't need 10 options, just a couple of bundles that include a lot of stuff.

I really hate bundles, and options that is depended on other unrelated options....

Lets look at Model S, why would I have to get "Premium Upgrades Package" if all I wanted was the "Power liftgate"?
Why do I have to get the "Dark Ash Wood Dècor" if I want the textile seats? What if I wanted "Carbon Fibre Dècor" or "Figured Ash Wood Dècore" but hated leather seats (witch I do)?

I was looking at an Hyundai Ioniq, and if I wanted the sun-roof (which I love) I would have to also get - and pay for - leather seats (which I hate).

... but I'm afraid you are right, it will probably be a lot of boundling

 

[diamond.g]

I really hate bundles, and options that is depended on other unrelated options....

Lets look at Model S, why would I have to get "Premium Upgrades Package" if all I wanted was the "Power liftgate"?
Why do I have to get the "Dark Ash Wood Dècor" if I want the textile seats? What if I wanted "Carbon Fibre Dècor" or "Figured Ash Wood Dècore" but hated leather seats (witch I do)?

I was looking at an Hyundai Ioniq, and if I wanted the sun-roof (which I love) I would have to also get - and pay for - leather seats (which I hate).

... but I'm afraid you are right, it will probably be a lot of boundling

They can build them in batches and therefore faster that way. But I agree I don't care for bundling in general (unless the bundle is cheaper than the sum of the separate parts).

 

[Model 3]

They can build them in batches and therefore faster that way.

Yes, I'm well aware of the reasons. It does not help me a bit if the bundle is cheaper then the sum if it's includes some options that I absolutely do not want (like leather seats). But I can also see the positive, "Dark Ash Wood Dècor" is at least better then the old "Piano Black Dècor"

 

[SureValla]

Now, I know Tesla is no typical car company and Musk is no typical CEO, but when a multi-billion dollar company says "we're gonna do a reveal in X months", and then X months later they say, "meh... actually instead maybe we'll do the reveal in another X months... maybe" with no explanation, I don't think that reflects well, particularly when your prospective customers have been eagerly awaiting this event.

Well stated explanation and why I was annoyed as well.