Final Model 3 reveal may not happen before production begins in July 2017, per Elon

[S3XY]

and if not built the numbers ordered will change, 1000, 2000, 4000 numbers he gave were guidance to suppliers not hard and fast orders or actual production numbers.

His goal is to not have a shortage of parts, they actually have a huge amount of space inside and outside for storage and I'm sure they'd rather have to figure out where to put 500 of something than to be short 500 of it and have to sideline 500 partially assembled cars or slow the line.

Cost, complexity, size, weight, and other factors will decide if Tesla is willing to stockpile thousands of parts. They know what they can store or can't and why it would be a bad idea or impossible if it is.

So again, just because he said 4,000 a week in Sept doesn't mean a single car has been delivered by that point. It's just soft guidance for suppliers, which is why I said

All those parts also have a cost. And with the ramp-up taking place Tesla won't want to have a lot of extra parts sitting around somewhere in storage because it's a big hit to their cash flow. So they will constantly be adjusting what the sweet spot is in having ample parts on hand to keep the machines buzzing and having too much sitting around draining their cash on hand.

 

[macpacheco]

Tesla really should aim to keep 3-7 days worth of parts on hands to avoid any logistics disruptions. The worst part is allocating people to push/pop that inventory as needed. I think even 10 days of parts storage will use less than 10% the space of the production line. Its mostly a matter of stacking those parts efficiently in the vertical axis. Those buildings are very tall.

As far as keeping Model S/X demand up, I expect Tesla will give MS/MX a one time price cut reflecting its lower cost of 2170 packs, once it actually migrates to 2170, that's if they detect an actual reduction in demand (a temporary flattening is ok and expected in my view). This will likely happen early 2018. I expect MS/MX demand to stabilize between 100k and 150k combined units/yr. If demand continues, I expect Tesla to just freeze price increases in MS/MX for up to 3 years (better for existing customers and for Tesla cash flow). In the extreme case, Tesla might kill the 60kWh option and sell the 75 at 60 prices, and 90 at 75 prices, keeping the 100 at its current price due to its premium characteristic.

I think there will also be a trickle up effect of people that don't know/trust Tesla yet when they see a flood of Model 3's in the market that might decide to finally buy a MS/MX. Plus its not like every upper middle class hood in North America/Europe already has at least a few enthusiastic MS/MX owner to pump other people to buy them. And people that will buy a Model 3 as their 2nd family car and decide to buy a MS/MX after they like what they get.
There are always the old school people that need years to warm up to the Tesla way of doing things.

 

[jsmay311]

From my perspective, it's been nearly a year since I burned half a vacation day to wait 2.5 hours in a line to fork over $1000 to reserve a product I'd never seen, and today I still don't know yet if I will even want to follow through with an order of a Model 3 at all. And I won't be able to know until all (or at least most) of the final details are made known: Design, specs, options, pricing, etc.

The longer they keep everything secret, the longer I have to wait (while they kindly hold onto my $1000 for me) before being able to make plans for my future car ownership, be it a Tesla or not. It puts significant financial and life decisions on hold. So, yeah, unexpectedly tacking on another 3-5 months to this uncertainty and waiting is unwelcome news.

It might be good strategy for maximizing media attention or short-term profit, but not so much for customer relations. IMHO.

 

[stopcrazypp]

It might be good strategy for maximizing media attention or short-term profit, but not so much for customer relations. IMHO.

Actually, I would say withholding more information will minimize media attention. If Tesla does a reveal, there will definitely be a lot more media attention than now.

It serves multiple functions however. One is to limit cannibalization of Model S/X sales. The other is that it allows them more time to refine the features (which avoids situations like in the past where they show a feature, but it doesn't make it to production and then there are a ton of complaints).

 

[SureValla]

From my perspective, it's been nearly a year since I burned half a vacation day to wait 2.5 hours in a line to fork over $1000 to reserve a product I'd never seen, and today I still don't know yet if I will even want to follow through with an order of a Model 3 at all. And I won't be able to know until all (or at least most) of the final details are made known: Design, specs, options, pricing, etc.

The longer they keep everything secret, the longer I have to wait (while they kindly hold onto my $1000 for me) before being able to make plans for my future car ownership, be it a Tesla or not. It puts significant financial and life decisions on hold. So, yeah, unexpectedly tacking on another 3-5 months to this uncertainty and waiting is unwelcome news.

It might be good strategy for maximizing media attention or short-term profit, but not so much for customer relations. IMHO.

I like and agree with how this post started (>1 yr still not many details, sadface) and ended (no more details until july, sadface) but let’s face it there’s no other car options I am considering. I’ll still buy the car regardless of what happens, i.e. delays, no hud, whatever else negative comes out because I love Tesla.

I especially don't agree with the middle of this post. Having them keep my $1000 is not putting a significant strain on my financial wallet and I don't believe for a second anyone buying a model 3 (remember a 35k+ car!) is burdened by this either.

 

[Jersey Shore Tom]

From my perspective, it's been nearly a year since I burned half a vacation day to wait 2.5 hours in a line to fork over $1000 to reserve a product I'd never seen, and today I still don't know yet if I will even want to follow through with an order of a Model 3 at all. And I won't be able to know until all (or at least most) of the final details are made known: Design, specs, options, pricing, etc.

The longer they keep everything secret, the longer I have to wait (while they kindly hold onto my $1000 for me) before being able to make plans for my future car ownership, be it a Tesla or not. It puts significant financial and life decisions on hold. So, yeah, unexpectedly tacking on another 3-5 months to this uncertainty and waiting is unwelcome news.

It might be good strategy for maximizing media attention or short-term profit, but not so much for customer relations. IMHO.

While I agree the almost 11 months since the exciting day we handed $1,000 each to Tesla have left me wanting more information, I don't remember them promising a reveal in March 2017 before that day. I know the speculation here on TMC and Elon's statements in the fall may have led us to count on that timeline, that came long after I gave up the chance to earn almost $20 a year in interest on my money.

I certainly hope and expect to continue to get details like design, specs and options as time goes on, I never expected to get pricing information until the day the Design Studio opens for any non-employees.

As a side note, since I am on the East Coast and don't currently own a Tesla, I am resigned to the idea that I won't have access to the Design Studio on that day. (I am of course willing to be wrong about this.) Therefore, I am counting on fellow members to post screen shots within an hour of their getting access. In my mind that is a sacred duty. Please don't let us down.

 

[Krugerrand]

You, me, us. We all signed up for 'here's my money' knowing full well (you, me, us should have known - just a little research goes a long way) that we'd wait for who knows how long without details until Tesla was/is good and ready to give them. Many of you, me, us signed up without even seeing any car at all, while the rest of you, me, us signed up after seeing an incomplete one on a stage for a few minutes. So complaining now about the money you, me, us gave Tesla, and the lack of details or the timetable of the details, or production date of said cars etc... = blah, blah, blah, blah, falling on deaf ears.

 

[dsvick]

The only time spring was mentioned was last fall. But, maybe they'll do a HUD reveal that's really more geared toward Model S/X in spring like they did with hardware 2.0, and mention that "Oh, and this will also be included in the Model 3"

If there is going to be a HUD this is what I think will happen as well. Hopefully, in the next month or tow.

 

[dsvick]

From my perspective, it's been nearly a year since I burned half a vacation day to wait 2.5 hours in a line to fork over $1000 to reserve a product I'd never seen, and today I still don't know yet if I will even want to follow through with an order of a Model 3 at all. And I won't be able to know until all (or at least most) of the final details are made known: Design, specs, options, pricing, etc.

The longer they keep everything secret, the longer I have to wait (while they kindly hold onto my $1000 for me) before being able to make plans for my future car ownership, be it a Tesla or not. It puts significant financial and life decisions on hold. So, yeah, unexpectedly tacking on another 3-5 months to this uncertainty and waiting is unwelcome news.

It might be good strategy for maximizing media attention or short-term profit, but not so much for customer relations. IMHO.

Anyone that reserved in the first couple of days was still under the impression that that ramp up would take twice as long and that we likely wouldn't see a vehicle until 2018. As far as I'm concerned everything is well ahead of where I thought it would be a year ago when I was making plans to get up early on March 31st.

 

[jbcarioca]

Anyone that reserved in the first couple of days was still under the impression that that ramp up would take twice as long and that we likely wouldn't see a vehicle until 2018. As far as I'm concerned everything is well ahead of where I thought it would be a year ago when I was making plans to get up early on March 31st.

I agree. A huge paid reservation book when we had almost nothing other than vaporware proved without a doubt that there were ~400,000 people who were willing to wait a few years to see what they might have bought.
Rationally, the only way that made any sense is that all ~400,000 of us could afford to speculate on hope because what had happened so far led us to expect wonders.
I still feel that way. I hope any of those who have lost faith are before me in the queues.

 

[SureValla]

Anyone that reserved in the first couple of days was still under the impression that that ramp up would take twice as long and that we likely wouldn't see a vehicle until 2018. As far as I'm concerned everything is well ahead of where I thought it would be a year ago when I was making plans to get up early on March 31st.

I've also known I wanted this car way before I even put a deposit down on 3/31/16. I would estimate probably as far back as 2010 when i first considered turning my prius into a plug in hybrid through third party mods.

As a result waiting 9 years vs 8 isn't a huge deal on my end.

 

[dhanson865]

All those parts also have a cost. And with the ramp-up taking place Tesla won't want to have a lot of extra parts sitting around somewhere in storage because it's a big hit to their cash flow. So they will constantly be adjusting what the sweet spot is in having ample parts on hand to keep the machines buzzing and having too much sitting around draining their cash on hand.

You really don't seem to understand this. There are no parts to have a cost or sit around.

1. Elon says hey suppliers we are thinking of a 1, 2, 4 ramp rate
2. Elon says to investors, hey this is what we told suppliers
3. People freak and say Elon said they would make cars at the 1, 2, 4 rate
4. No he didn't he just gave guidance about supplies, there is no guarantee of how many cars will start when
5. No parts have been delivered yet and the orders can be adjusted as needed
6. Stop talking about cost and space.

It's this level of getting lost in the details that makes Elon not want to answer these questions. Someone invariably tries to take the base bit of information and extrapolate to later steps but they don't have the rest of the information required to do so.

A. Elon said to the suppliers get ready for this load
B. Elon said to investors I can't tell you when we'll make cars exactly, here is what I told suppliers
C. People ignore that he qualified the statement and off we go.

 

[MiamiNole]

I especially don't agree with the middle of this post. Having them keep my $1000 is not putting a significant strain on my financial wallet and I don't believe for a second anyone buying a model 3 (remember a 35k+ car!) is burdened by this either.

After reading this post and the many responses to the post of @jsmay311, I think his quote was misinterpreted. He never said that the $1000 is putting a financial STRAIN on him. In fact, I think he only brought up the $1000 as an "oh by the way, they still have my money" kind of thing. He said that not knowing the details on what the Model 3 will cost with options, etc., puts life and financial decisions on hold. That is completely different than financial strain, and, quite frankly, I happen to agree with him.

While I always have been expecting to buy a Model 3 ASAP (which is why I waited in line on the first day of reservations), I also had been on the fence on moving to a bigger house, or moreso when I would do it. Well, it's been almost a year since that Model 3 reveal and since then I've signed a purchase agreement to have a new home built (a lot sooner than we had planned, but an opportunity came that we decided to jump on). So while I still hope to get the Model 3 that I want, it may or may not be put on hold depending on how much the options will be, when to expect it, tax credit, etc.

Others prospective Model 3 owners in my situation might be holding off on making life and financial decisions, such as buying a house, until they know for sure how much the Model 3 will cost. It could lead to them continuing with their Model 3 purchase, delaying it, or even going in a different direction altogether, as @jsmay311 indicated. So I think what he said in his post is fair. The focus wasn't on the $1000 reservation itself, but it's disappointment in having to wait a bit longer to make definite financial plans.

 

[Model 3]

I've also known I wanted this car way before I even put a deposit down on 3/31/16. I would estimate probably as far back as 2010 when i first considered turning my prius into a plug in hybrid through third party mods.

As a result waiting 9 years vs 8 isn't a huge deal on my end.

I have waited since I read this blog post in 2006... So, waiting 12 years vs 11 isn't a huge deal on my end

... and putting down the deposit on 3/31/16 I was expecting to have to wait for two and a half year, and so far that seams to be what it's take...

But unlike some here, I will not take the car "no matter what". I have a few issues that I do not like on the prototype - no lift-back and no IC is the two most prominent. But I patiently is waiting for the final reveal. And if Hyundai gets out an Ioniq or some other cars with 40+ battery this or next year (before I have to finalize) I may have a tough time making an decision.

 

[SureValla]

After reading this post and the many responses to the post of @jsmay311, I think his quote was misinterpreted. He never said that the $1000 is putting a financial STRAIN on him. In fact, I think he only brought up the $1000 as an "oh by the way, they still have my money" kind of thing. He said that not knowing the details on what the Model 3 will cost with options, etc., puts life and financial decisions on hold. That is completely different than financial strain, and, quite frankly, I happen to agree with him.

While I always have been expecting to buy a Model 3 ASAP (which is why I waited in line on the first day of reservations), I also had been on the fence on moving to a bigger house, or moreso when I would do it. Well, it's been almost a year since that Model 3 reveal and since then I've signed a purchase agreement to have a new home built (a lot sooner than we had planned, but an opportunity came that we decided to jump on). So while I still hope to get the Model 3 that I want, it may or may not be put on hold depending on how much the options will be, when to expect it, tax credit, etc.

Others prospective Model 3 owners in my situation might be holding off on making life and financial decisions, such as buying a house, until they know for sure how much the Model 3 will cost. It could lead to them continuing with their Model 3 purchase, delaying it, or even going in a different direction altogether, as @jsmay311 indicated. So I think what he said in his post is fair. The focus wasn't on the $1000 reservation itself, but it's disappointment in having to wait a bit longer to make definite financial plans.

You are correct. If he intended what you expanded upon that is not how I read the statements.

That being said I still don't agree with the concept. Elon and Tesla said the car is 35k starting. I put a top end cap on myself of 50k so ive planned for something between 35-50k. I don't see how this makes putting other financial decisions off. If the car ends up costing more than 50k base the decision is simple. I buy a bolt or something else.

 

[Tonymil]

Longtime lurker here. I'm also impatiently waiting for my Model 3. I put my deposit online on 3/31. But regarding the final "reveal", won't it have to happen before July if that's when production starts? Right now if you put in an order for a Model S, the estimated delivery date is the end of March. For a Model X, it's May. Won't Tesla have to give customers lead time of between one and three months to place their orders so that they can be produced in July and August? And I see that some are speculating that Tesla employees will get their cars before the final reveal, but I'm not sure about that. The employees are getting the cars as members of the public, their status as employees just gets them to the front of the line. So they'll need to see the final specs, pictures, options, packages, EPA rating etc. Wouldn't Tesla make all that public in time for the employees to place their final orders? So my guess is that the reveal will have to happen at least by early May, maybe sooner.

 

[McHoffa]

If there is going to be a HUD this is what I think will happen as well. Hopefully, in the next month or tow.

a HUD would save them money on S/X production in terms of wiring and the second screen. They did say something about the 3 having one screen instead of two like the S/X but that may have been to throw people off on them announcing HUD on those cars soon. It would make manufacturing much less complex across the line.

I hope we get some really cool new stuff in all of the cars. Side cameras would be awesome too. If the S/X don't get them soon, then the 3 probably won't either.

 

[182RG]

The other is that it allows them more time to refine the features

"Pencils Down" was always a ridiculous statement for Tesla. If you think they aren't continuing to make last minute, significant changes to the design, features, specs, price, etc. of the M3, you are kidding yourself. History has a way of repeating itself, regardless of what they say.

There won't be a reveal pre-production, because they don't know what "production" looks like. Isn't the stereo typical Tesla customer simply happy to have a car, regardless?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Longtime lurker here. I'm also impatiently waiting for my Model 3. I put my deposit online on 3/31. But regarding the final "reveal", won't it have to happen before July if that's when production starts? Right now if you put in an order for a Model S, the estimated delivery date is the end of March. For a Model X, it's May. Won't Tesla have to give customers lead time of between one and three months to place their orders so that they can be produced in July and August? And I see that some are speculating that Tesla employees will get their cars before the final reveal, but I'm not sure about that. The employees are getting the cars as members of the public, their status as employees just gets them to the front of the line. So they'll need to see the final specs, pictures, options, packages, EPA rating etc. Wouldn't Tesla make all that public in time for the employees to place their final orders? So my guess is that the reveal will have to happen at least by early May, maybe sooner.

Well for Model X, the configuration was available at start of September and the first production founders vehicles were delivered at the end of the month. So a similar thing may happen where everything happens in the same month, but only a trickle of cars would be delivered. Plus this time there are employee orders that serve as a "buffer". They can let them configure first before the general public.

 

[stopcrazypp]

"Pencils Down" was always a ridiculous statement for Tesla. If you think they aren't continuing to make last minute, significant changes to the design, features, specs, price, etc. of the M3, you are kidding yourself. History has a way of repeating itself, regardless of what they say.

There won't be a reveal pre-production, because they don't know what "production" looks like. Isn't the stereo typical Tesla customer simply happy to have a car, regardless?

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Well I took "pencils down" to mean the big engineering/design related things (chassis, general body/interior design etc), such that their suppliers have something set to work with.

However, a lot of the individual features are going to be software enabled, and pricing/bundling of features obviously can change at a drop of the hat since that is just a marketing decision. I never got the impression they implied it meant all the details those would be figured out already during "pencils down," and I'm pretty sure most people did not assume that either.