Final price on Model 3? ...not concerned

[scottm]

A lot of media coverage projects the total doom of Tesla if it can't stick to the model 3 price of $35K or $30k after rebate.. or whatever... Saying that other EVs on the market are doing 200m for that money or maybe less..

To all that, I say this: does it really matter how much the 3 costs, the same, or more than a "comparible" EV on the market at that time? Personally, I'd probably still buy a 3 even if it were DOUBLE the "initial promised low low price target of $35K".

With Bolt out now (but not available to me) I still like Tesla at least twice as much as any other EV... and probably will continue to do so by time 3 hits market. Anything that is cheaper than a Model S entry will still get serious consideration from me ... And that's a lot of space between $35K and a Model S.

Maybe it's not the "EV for the masses" it was supposed to be, and I'm not in that target segment... but I don't care. I look at it as getting an "econo model S"...

Danger: Does that cannibalize potential Model S sales? Not really. If the 3 doesn't come in with enough value-to-dollar ratio, then I'd probably forget the 3 and get an S instead. Or wait for the Y which should be on its tracks by then too.. One way or another, Tesla is likely to get the money.

 

[ApauloThirteen]

Yep, anything significantly below the price point of an S/X but still with Tesla's charging network and autopilot is super compelling to a lot of people.

 

[msnow]

I think the $35k number goes to a number of things including Elon's credibility. The price point was carefully thought out based on the market. The angst I'm sensing is more about meeting the targets for production than the price though.

 

[vwtodd]

A lot of people (us) area looking at the 3 with full AP as much more than a cool car. Once enabled, full autonomy will turn the vehicle into a mobile office/living room/bedroom. I live in Central NY, and that would allow regular travel to Boston/NYC/Toronto/D.C./Montreal without a thought. No wasted time or stress.

 

[jbcarioca]

I'll wager that a substantial number of reservation holders are people who really like S and X but want something smaller. For some substantial portion of those, may as much as 15-20%, the price is not the issue, size is.

While I'm speculating I think there may be another 30-40% who like the high performance versions of 3-4 series BMW, Audi A4 or even Panamera or Ghibli, and think the Model 3 Performance versions will,deliver excitement.

If I'm correct the remaining 40-50% will have varying degrees of price sensitivity. That said, if Tesla meets 250 mikes rated range at less than $40,000 MSRP with Supercharger access that costs less than half the gasoline cost of the ICE equivalent, I think they'll have the normal Tesla inadequate capacity to meet demand.

For these to be valid assumptions we must believe that they've learned from the X. Though they seem to build it pretty well now, they're still paying a phenomenal,price for hubris. Somehow I think the Model 3 introduction will be smooth. Color me naive, if you wish.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't care what the price is. I'm checking all boxes on my M3.

I'll check all boxes even if my FULLY LOADED M3 surpasses the price of a base MS.

 

[EinSV]

The Tesla website currently has the statement below, and has had the same or similar since the reveal. IMO, the base price when the Model 3 launches will be $35,000, before incentives. Period.

Model 3 combines real world range, performance, safety and spaciousness into a premium sedan that only Tesla can build. Our most affordable car yet, Model 3 achieves 215 miles of range per charge while starting at only $35,000 before incentives. Model 3 is designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category.​

 

[JohnSnowNW]

No, a few thousand dollars one way or the other will not meaningfully impact sales of the M3.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No, a few thousand dollars one way or the other will not meaningfully impact sales of the M3.

Who are you saying "no" to?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Who are you saying "no" to?

The question posed in the thread title...

 

[Garlan Garner]

The question posed in the thread title...

Gotcha

 

[WileyTheMan]

The $35k price was very prominent in Elon's sales pitch last March. It would be good business to keep that starting price regardless of expenses, because if it really is a great car and well received, the volume and the constant reduction in costs to produce it will eventually offset any losses incurred. He really is hedging his bets with this car.

But to answer the question: It depends. If it's a $5k base jump, I would reconsider my selectable options but would probably still get one. Anything beyond that and I might as well consider an S instead.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I'm not so concerned by the price as by what my wife is going to say when SHE sees the price LOL!
Funny thing is, I'd probably be happy with a $35k Model 3, but I doubt that will stop me from a judiciously clicking a few boxes!

 

[boiler81]

Remember Tesla wants the M3 to be the best entry level luxury sedan, not just the best entry level EV. Those of us on this forum, probably aren't as price sensitive as the general public will be. Tesla wants this to be a mass market car, so a price point of $35K (near average car price) is important to meet Elon's goal of winning the ICE world.

 

[scottm]

I wonder if Tesla will follow the typical, more expensive performance versions of 3 first... followed by the lesser versions somewhat later.

Probably... it seems to have worked thus far.

 

[Sunlight]

I'm thinking along the same lines as scottm......Taking into account the naysayers throwing around fud (which may be partially true) about costings, Tesla may not be able to sell the base model at a profit but may be able to do quite nicely out of the top end versions.

So there may be a 35k model but it will be almost impossible to get hold of for a while as Tesla will deliver on the higher specs first.

By say 2018/19 the costs may have come down enough to warrant the base model and Tesla can then start rolling them out.
If there is a 35k model 'available' in spec but you can only get 'quick/earlier delivery' on higher spec, would Tesla have 'failed' in its mission to have a low priced mass market EV?

This is following on the current Tesla philosophy of starting higher and moving down price-wise as the market forces allow. I don't see how this would actually hurt Tesla.........

Anyway how many purchasers would actually order the base model?! Great willpower to ignore all the sexy bells and whistles.

We have an order in for the M3 but not expecting it till after 2019 anyway being in South Africa (even though we were the first to make a reservation..!)

 

[sitter_k]

"Starting at 35k" is such a moving target that they can adjust as needed and still be "right" in their forecast.

A lot of people think they're getting a mini (base) model s. Already we know it won't have unlimited SC access, as many predicted. But what else won't be there or locked away at that price is margins get slim and put pressure on their 35k promise. HUD? Fabric seats? Power seats? Floor mats? hub caps? GPS? Ever see that episode of Seinfeld with Jerry and the Saab?

More concerned and about when the ramp up starts rather than when the first car rolls off the line and $35k, those goals can be massaged.

As someone tempted to check all boxes like many above I'm more concerned about the ceiling rather than the floor.

 

[Alketi]

To echo @sitter_k, as a Model 3 reservation holder, I'm also more concerned with the ceiling rather than the floor. I'm planning on getting the largest battery, highest-performance version within reason.

However, as a stockholder, Tesla absolutely has to hold to the $35K base price. At this point, Wall Street literally believes nothing Musk has to say. Adam Jonas, Tesla cheerleader at Morgan Stanley, believes that Tesla won't even hit their ORIGINAL pre-reservation production goal.of 500K in 2020. He's forecasting 60K in 2019 and 130K Model 3s in 2020!

Tesla can do many things to hold $35K, including making more features a la carte, or even not shipping the base model until they achieve sufficient production efficiencies. But, for credibility with Wall Street, they have to hold $35K.

 

[Az_Rael]

But what else won't be there or locked away at that price is margins get slim and put pressure on their 35k promise. HUD? Fabric seats? Power seats? Floor mats? hub caps? GPS?

It's possible they will follow the German model on this. A base model BMW 3 series doesn't include power seats, leather, heated seats, rear view camera, keyless entry, navigation or a built in garage door opener (home link).

 

[182RG]

A $35K M3 will never be delivered to anyone, ever, anywhere. EM will "Tweet" around this miss, and move on.....