Final Q1 Production Analysis along with Preliminary Q2 Analysis

[brianstorms]

I was watching in Youtube Tesla Megafactories and at 22:43 there is a sign that says 10,000 Model S Vehicles Manufactured

Ha, I noticed that too! I was wondering if it was a goal, or a claim.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Reported today on teslamotors.com:

regarding VINs, I got mine today - 10,423

Didn't indicate expected delivery date.

Yes, there was a 10k+ reported last week for May delivery. The maximum VIN delivered is always quite a bit higher than the number of cars that have been delivered. And the maximum VIN assigned is quite a bit higher than that. Tesla will deliver their 10,00th vehicle ~2 weeks from now. The 10,000th VIN will be delivered this week most likely.

 

[SCW-Greg]

At present it looks like deliveries are approximately 2 weeks after VIN assignments.

 

[smorgasbord]

We already had a nice rise. ... If they hit 30% GM then I think Fox News would explode.

I think there are going to be a lot of questions trying to get them to state what the GM is without the regulatory credits. The market views those as unsustainable.

I think Tesla's plan is to increase efficiencies, so as credit profit income decreases they stay profitable overall. Mr. Market may be more skeptical.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Reposting from Tesla Motors Enthusiasts Forum:

keichhor | MAY 7, 2013 NEW
Well, I would expect the numbers to be very good... According to our factory tour 1 week ago they said they are almost producing 500 cars per week, and that they reduced their spending. Therefore the costs should be contained and the revenues should be increased.

Based on this US backlog is 500 x 13 = 6500 cars. Assuming average production of 400 cars/week in April and 500 cars/week in May and June, the total expected guidance for Q2 would be 6,066 cars.

Another major implication that they are at or close to 25% margin disregarding the regulatory credits. That also means that regulatory credits could potentially add 10-15 percentage points to the gross margin - life is good!

Assuming increased production to 650 cars/week in the Fall, the guidance for 2013 should be raised to around 25,000 cars.

The major unknown is total backlog of reservations.

 

[DonPedro]

Made me top up my position a little bit now at the end

 

[ongba]

Reposting from Tesla Motors Enthusiasts Forum:

keichhor | MAY 7, 2013 NEW
Well, I would expect the numbers to be very good... According to our factory tour 1 week ago they said they are almost producing 500 cars per week, and that they reduced their spending. Therefore the costs should be contained and the revenues should be increased.

Based on this US backlog is 500 x 13 = 6500 cars. Assuming average production of 400 cars/week in April and 500 cars/week in May and June, the total expected guidance for Q2 would be 6,066 cars.

Another major implication that they are at or close to 25% margin disregarding the regulatory credits. That also means that regulatory credits could potentially add 10-15 percentage points to the gross margin - life is good!

Assuming increased production to 650 cars/week in the Fall, the guidance for 2013 should be raised to around 25,000 cars.

The major unknown is total backlog of reservations.

Can you provide a link to this forum. Thanks.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Can you provide a link to this forum. Thanks.

1Q Earnings | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Reposting from Tesla Motors Enthusiasts Forum:

keichhor | MAY 7, 2013 NEW
Well, I would expect the numbers to be very good... According to our factory tour 1 week ago they said they are almost producing 500 cars per week, and that they reduced their spending. Therefore the costs should be contained and the revenues should be increased.

Based on this US backlog is 500 x 13 = 6500 cars. Assuming average production of 400 cars/week in April and 500 cars/week in May and June, the total expected guidance for Q2 would be 6,066 cars.

Another major implication that they are at or close to 25% margin disregarding the regulatory credits. That also means that regulatory credits could potentially add 10-15 percentage points to the gross margin - life is good!

Assuming increased production to 650 cars/week in the Fall, the guidance for 2013 should be raised to around 25,000 cars.

The major unknown is total backlog of reservations.

500/week in May is possible. They did ~400 deliveries in the week since April 30, but if the factory ramped to 500 it wouldn't be reflected in deliveries yet. Current deliveries firmed up nicely compared to when I looked at them over the weekend and they were looking soft (it went from missing several hundred VIN's back to being up ~400 from the first of the month).

There were anecdotal reports from a customer who got an email apologizing for the delay in his car that basically said the factory didn't produce as many cars as planned that week (this was last week he got the email). Speculation was it had to do with Performance Plus switchover. If that resolved they might have gone back up to 500 per week.

And as before, the weakness in April that resulted in an average of 400/week could have been the result of the Factory operating at extremely low rates for a week or two after the switchover to Multi-Coat Red. It did something similar in January with the switchover to 60kWh. They might have kicked it up to full speed a few weeks ago. Realistically we only have 2 weeks of clean data (outside of the out of sequence shadow) so its possible for high rates at end of month, which take a couple of weeks to filter into delivery data.