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"Finalize" concerns

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Raven, Dec 11, 2012.

  1. Raven

    Raven Member

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    At 11,395, I was expecting a "finalize" email in February with a May/June delivery. Well here it is, Dec. 11, and 10,6XX has gotten notice. At the rate it's going, I will likely be this month as well. WAY early. While all this is exciting, it also leaves me concerned. I'm concerned that 1. There have been an enormous amount of cancellations or 2. Tesla is fulfilling reservations far faster than it receives them. My hope is that Tesla is jumping wildly out of order and cherry picking the 85kwh holders like myself. Of course this makes sense since neither the 40 nor 60kwh are in production, but is this really the case and did THAT many people choose those packs? Also, no one on this board seems to be complaining about being passed over, leaving me to think people truly are being contacted in order. I invite anyone to offer thoughts.
     
  2. Shorty

    Shorty Member

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    Good grief. Now we have people complaining that they are getting their cars too fast!

    Everyone who initially ordered a car was offered an upgrade to the Signature series when it was announced. It makes sense most people who were thinking of the larger battery pack anyways went that route. If Tesla is now close to producing 400 cars a week then they are likely blowing through the 85kwh orders very quickly.
     
  3. steve841

    steve841 Active Member

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    It could be all the above.... Or just a good way to keep the supply chain humming. Or just a nice cash flow bump from the next installment payment due. Really doubt cancellations are any issue at all. Just my opinion.
     
  4. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I assume you got the email that said that all current reservation holders would be invited to finalize before the end of January (and that's up to over 15000). Reservation holders are definitely being contacted in order, since they have no idea what you're ordering until you finalize (I switch what's in my "Garage" all the time). You forgot possibility 3: They're getting people to commit earlier because of the price increase.
     
  5. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Trust me, I want my car 2 years ago. My initial concern was that Tesla may have a hard time sustaining the 20K/year numbers. That scenario would threaten the viability of the company long term. That is all.
     
  6. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    New reservations are coming in at a rate above 20K/year and increasing. Tesla is running two shifts, so it's much more likely that they're planning to increase production to at least 30K/yr rather than that hordes of people have mysteriously canceled. We do know they had quite a few cancelations out of the early reservations.
     
  7. Raven

    Raven Member

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    This I can understand. Toss in international orders and that should float the company(I hope). I can also understand a higher cancellation rate amongst early adopters. That's a LONG wait abound with uncertainty. The more cars this company gets out the door with minimal problems the more buyers it should attract. It's like when man discovered flight. People will be hesitant until it's commonplace.
     
  8. wstuff

    wstuff Junior Member

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    Im pretty certain that the production ramp up is well into a smooth flow by now, especially the clues you get with cars being backlogged at service centers being delivered, I have discussed with people on this thread that the numbers just don't add up. But if you take all the pieces and put them together, 40 and 60 being built in spring, red being offered some where around March I believe that obviously some are deffering for. If i ran the plant I would cherry pick exactly what I could build and blast away, especially being 4th QTR and turning the corner with a fledgling company. This is the first I have heard of 10,6xx getting notification, I am 10,729 COMMON EMAIL, I am an 85.
     
  9. Lyon

    Lyon 2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D

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    Also, lets not confuse the "Finalize your order" email with the "your car is ready" email. Once you get the finalize email, you've got a month to actually finalize and then a wait of probably several months before your car will be ready. Apparently there is some craziness going on right now because they're only set up for the 85+air combo and they only want to build cars for people who are willing/able to take delivery ASAP.

    In brief, I expect things to go back to normal shortly.
     
  10. wstuff

    wstuff Junior Member

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    Well i think that is exacly the reason for the email rush, trying to cherry pick the 85's so production can just sing along. Of course same will happen once they start building 40's and 60's.
     
  11. kevincwelch

    kevincwelch Active Member

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    It's an interesting dilemma.

    I want my Model S, but not until April or May. (February or March just would not be my ideal time in the Chicago area.) Yet, I have to finalize before December 31st or else be subject to the price increase.

    This truly is a first world problem. But, I don't like it!
     
  12. Raven

    Raven Member

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    You only have to reserve before 12-31, not finalize. Or did I miss something?
     
  13. kevincwelch

    kevincwelch Active Member

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    Possibly.

    If you have a reservation and were invited to finalize, you were given a set time frame to finalize before the price would increase. In my case, the email I received stated a Dec 31 deadline to finalize.

    Sent via Tapatalk.
     
  14. heems

    heems Member

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    i am confused on this as well. I got my invite to finalize back in August, but I haven't pulled the trigger. Then on 11/29/12 got an email about the price increase with the following verbiage:

    "You have already received your Invitation to Configure, so you can finalize your order at any time. In about a month or two, you will receive a "second invitation" that will begin a new three-week timeline"

    I understood that to mean that in Jan/Feb I'd get the second invite with a 3-week deadline, potentially extending the ultimate deadline into March some time. Am I missing something and need to finalize by 12/31/12 now?
     
  15. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    It could very well be that there is quite a large percentage of 40 and 60kWh pack reservation holders. What if its over 50%? That would explain something. We've been hearing from a lot of people here on this board about their Sigs and the Performance cars, just because they happen to be out first. It may have created an impression of high percentage of 85kWh packs, but nobody knows the real breakdown.

    Also, with the excellent 208 miles EPA rating in for the 60 kWh pack, I expect the mix to change in favor of the lower packs.
     
  16. 100thMonkey

    100thMonkey Member

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    definitely a first world problem and a good sign that things are humming along at the factory but I have to admit that we plan to pay cash with minimal if any loan and liquidating that kind of cash takes time and planning. When I ordered in July, I was told it would be about a year which was plenty of time to liquidate some real estate. With this invitation to finalize email, it sure feels like it could be Feb/March or, if I went P85, maybe sooner and that is a little nerve wracking. I'm sure for Tesla it is/was all very hard to predict the time it would take from reservation to deliver and yet for those of us having to liquidate assets to take delivery, and having delivery estimates bounce around, it's a challenge with the prospects of loosing one's down payment if the ducks don't fall together in a row fast enough to take delivery. with a purchase this large, predictability of timing is important for the customer. we are hesitant to sign on the dotted line if that means the delivery will happen before we are truly ready, as much as we want the car ASAP.
     
  17. linaser

    linaser Member

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    What concerns me is, that Tesla has already taken orders from 10000+ U.S. reservation holders, and that we European reservation holders don't even have pricing yet. If Tesla plans on fulfilling all those 10000+ U.S. orders, before they start to deliver cars to Europe the March/April target for first EU cars is impossible to reach at current production rates.
     
  18. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    If you switch colour to red you won't get it till April or May. I'm in the same boat you are, and I really don't want a red car.
     
  19. Brian H

    Brian H Banned

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    Switch back later?
     
  20. Brian H

    Brian H Banned

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    That's how it reads; I think you've got it right. Three weeks instead of four sounds like the "last chance" delay option.
     

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