Ok, so preliminary, personal scenario with numbers I came up with on the napkin which favors financing over lease based on my $90k configuration. Here goes..
12k/yr lease-- $10,464 down (includes 2.5k order payment). $1052 per month. (This is using Tesla's lease calculator that states the 7.5k tax credit is already figured into the payment.
Finance car @$95,935 (taxes, discount, etc., total out the door)-- 20% down $21,687=$973/month
LEASE SCENARIO
Shell out roughly half the down payment, make your monthlies for a total of $37,872, then give the car back and get hussy patted on the ass for the $395 disposition fee on your way out. $38,267 total. Vanished. Gone.
FINANCE SCENARIO
100% higher down payment versus the lease, but, let's say the car's worth roughly 58k after 3 years and 36k miles (I settled on this number looking at a large number of 2013's on autotrader, both private and dealer advertisements. Pretty sure we're in agreement the 60D w/75 upgrade option will retain a nice value, but let's play a down scenario). Using an amortization chart @1.74% interest over 6.5 years and October 1st as initial payment, in that same month in 2019, you'll have paid $33,031 into the car. Add the $21,687 down payment and you're at $54,718 invested. You can spin the 7.5k tax credit any way you want since a lot of factors are involved in that, but for sake of argument, say you're able to collect the full amount and throw it on top of the car--$62,218 total invested. Minus that from the out-the-door price=$33,717 balance left on the car. So with, without, or meeting the tax credit somewhere in the middle, if you choose to sell at the 3 year mark, you're roughly getting your down payment back to do what you will with, all while building equity and owning the car.
My conclusion: If you're fine doubling down on the down payment and exercising a little diligence with a private sale in 3 years (if you even want to sell at that point), financing seems the all-around better bet, and you get to keep your tints, Miggz! Payments with the financing plan are $79/month lower as well.
I really hope this gave more in-depth perspective, and, if my numbers or strategies here seem askew, please call them out! This was done at 1am lol.
It was even better than I imagined and convinced me I must have an S! I will keep my M3 reservation but will not be in anyones way regarding the list. My wife's Lexus is leased until 2019 anyway so i will ask Tesla about putting my reservation on hold. I don't know what the policy is regarding that. As far as the tax credit goes I felt I had a chance at getting at least a half credit. 250k on the list, in NY etc....That $7500 will be long gone IMHO.
