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Finally the right time to buy a Model S!

Discussion in 'Model S' started by luvnMyTS, Oct 23, 2016.

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  1. luvnMyTS

    luvnMyTS Member

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    There have been many pissed off owners who recently purchased their cars, only to find it is outdated just a few days, weeks, months later with the release of the P100D, then followed a few weeks later with another major release of Autopilot 2.0. That's been Tesla's pattern since the Model S came out. New, secretive surprise updates to motivate existing buyers to trade up (me included). I hesitated and now wish I had hesitated another few months!! I know of several potential buyers who have been holding out for the same reason.

    On a positive note, being that AP 2.0 is supposedly hardware capable of providing fully autonomous driving, I really can't think of any new updates they can do going forward that would be significant enough to make cars being built today fell outdated in the foreseeable future. I think it's finally reached its plateau.

    Their focus will be shifting to the Model 3. Model S already got a bigger battery, new body design, new interior features, more power, new wheel design and now AP 2.0. Really, what's left to do??

    Maybe auto opening doors and some other features found on the X, but nothing I can think of that would be a must have. Sure, the regular 90D will probably get a 100 kWh battery, but to me, that's a minor change. It was a big change for the Performance Model as it was necessary to get all of the power out of the motors to maximize performance, but for the regular models, the added 10 kWh is probably pointless to 95% (or more) of Tesla owners. The extra 10 kWh isn't enough to allow you to skip any superchargers. Sure, there will always be some rare circumstances where you may wish you had just a little more range, but for most, it's insignificant and certainly not worth the $10,000 premium they charge for it on the P100D (over P90D pricing). Until they can increase the range to over 400 miles and comfortably allow people to skip a Supercharger, incremental battery size increases won't be "gotta have it" features like many of the upgrades that have come to this point. The next "major" change likely won't come until they completely redesign the car, which is probably several years away.

    So for anyone that's been holding out on purchasing a Model S or trading up, NOW is finally the right time to do so.

    And probably best to do so quickly. If you haven't noticed, the original top of the line Model S topped out at just over $100,000. Today, a fully loaded P100D is just shy of $170,000. Tesla's pricing increases have always been "because we can". And, people keep paying it. So before the next $10,000 "flip of the switch" software option comes, probably best to take advantage before prices go up again. I'd bet that once AP 2.0 is fully functional and approved, its price will be significantly higher than the current $8,000 price tag. I just wish I didn't have 2 1/2 years left on my lease!! Had I waited 6 months to upgrade, my order for a new one would have already been placed.
     
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  2. JClu

    JClu Member

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    Well thought out, well written.

    I got my MS 90D 3 weeks ago and "missed out" on AP 2.0. While that's frustrating, I'm more than content with my MS. If people are concerned about not having the latest and the greatest and therefore "holding off" on getting one, well, they will never have one. Lease it instead of buy it if you'd always want the latest gadgets.
     
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  3. Chopr147

    Chopr147 Active Member

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    2 months into my S and it's already obsolete? Nah, i'm good with it. Any one buying a Tesla needs to know ahead of time that the next greatest thing is right around the corner, but then the next one and the next one etc...........
    This is why I did not wait and I have no regrets, But having said that , it is also the reason I changed my purchase to a lease on the last day. I ordered in June and we all knew 2.0 was coming out eventually.
    I agree with the OP. here. It certainly feels like the right time to buy
     
  4. Nick B

    Nick B Member

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    I do agree with what lumyTS is saying but you could apply the same reasoning at pretty much each 1-1 1/2 year interval. Hell I got a very good deal on my non AP 2014 P85+ 9 months ago. Every time people think Tesla is done with the big improvements they come out with something new and interesting! I guess we'll have to see!
     
  5. pjoseph

    pjoseph Member

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    Indeed, Tesla lives on the bleeding edge. This appears the only way they can keep selling cars. There is only a small percentage of the population (~1%) who can afford the cars AND can stomach the uncertainty.

    Reminds me of the "go-go" era of the Internet (early 1990s).
     
  6. TexasEV

    TexasEV Well-Known Member

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    Just because Tesla comes out with an improvement every few months doesn't mean there's anything wrong with the one you bought. It does exactly what it did when you bought it (sometimes more with firmware upgrades). It's not obsolete, it's just that you don't have the latest and greatest. People just learn to live with the idea that the Tesla they own isn't going to be the latest and greatest for very long. But so what? If you're waiting for the next big thing you'll never have the benefit of getting rid of your ICE and driving one.

    If I had only waited another few months in 2013 I could have had parking sensors and auto folding mirrors.
     
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  7. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    The new hardware greatly increases Tesla's ability to push out software features. This improvement should allow Tesla to remain fresh for a long time without the need to constantly think of new, interesting physical changes. Of course they will continue to improve the physical S/X, but the pressure to do so to stimulate sales is likely reduced.

    When Tesla produced the fist model S they probably greatly underestimated how many people would pay $100K plus for an EV. But they also underestimated how much capital they needed to function as a company.
     
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  8. brkaus

    brkaus Active Member

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    Possible future things -

    - Ventilated seats in non-P models

    - inside door skins

    - power doors

    - higher density battery (more range fur same kWh).

    - trailer hitch (unlikely)


    Did they upgrade the CPU in the main screen this go around?
     
  9. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 90D 2017.34 2448cfc

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    I originally finalized my order in April but delayed delivery, mostly because I was waiting for AP 2.0. Now that it's out, I won't be delaying delivery anymore and will be getting it in November/December. I was also holding out for the white premium ventilated seats but didn't didn't want to upgrade to a performance model just to get those (and they didn't offer them in white in the S yet anyways).

    I'm sure there will be cool new tech next year such as a heads-up display. Maybe they'll start offering night vision, electro-chromatic windows, full hybrid display rear view mirrors and many of the other cool tech features people have wondered about over the past year or so. While those features would be nice to have, the Enhanced Autopilot and future Full self-driving capability are enough for me to finally pull the trigger now.
     
  10. dckiwi

    dckiwi Member

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    I picked my solid white 75D about a month ago. I don't feel like I 'missed' out based purely on the great deal I got on my car. Here's an apples to apples comparison:

    My car:

    Base price (includes sales tax): $90,416
    Discounts: $9,700 (destination fee waived, referral credit, 'showroom' discount on brand new inventory car).
    Out the door: $80,716

    Same car today:

    Base price (includes sales tax): $94,943 (AP now $5,000 instead of $2,500, any color but black is $1,000-$1,500).
    Discounts: $1,000 (referral credit).
    Out the door: $93,943

    So the same car now is $13,000 more expensive. Now, I realize it's not the same car - the AP 2.0 hardware sounds awesome. And I'm sure if I bought now instead I would have been fine paying the extra money for the AP2.0 hardware.

    I'm just saying that I suspect Tesla pushed the Q3 firesale discounts in part to take the sting out of the new hardware for recent buyers.
     
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  11. Sonny Daze

    Sonny Daze Member

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    What about Tesla Glass? The 3 is supposed to have "spaceship like" controls possibly with a HUD (Telsa Glass??). Elon has said that the S/X would always be the models with the leading technology. What are the chances that the S/X get the new controls in the spring/summer?

    I don't know if you can play that game as fast as Tesla is moving forward. Next thing you know there will be new battery technology that will be half the weight and provide twice the range or something that we are't even talking about.
     
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  12. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    The S/X are also due for a console/dash upgrade. Tesla would probably do that change to coincide with Model 3 interior reveal.
     
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  13. Sonny Daze

    Sonny Daze Member

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    I could definitely see at the end of the Model 3 reveal part 2 (I mean 3) Elon say "and by the way, this is being installed on all S/X as we speak".
     
  14. tstafford

    tstafford Supporting Member

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    I'm glad I bought my car when I did. Missed P90D w/ Ludicrous by a few weeks. I've enjoyed every mile. I'm also glad I leased. I was concerned that Tesla ownership would be like iPhone ownership - it's great, but I want the upgrades! I'll settle in and hope that by the time my lease is up in 2018 they have enabled full autonomous.
     
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  15. shokunin

    shokunin P85 & S40

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    Not sure why people keep insisting that they were glad they leased from a technology upgrade pace. I'm not talking about whether buying vs leasing is more financially beneficial over the other.

    Leasing is just another form of financing, but more or less you are contractually locked into a timeframe. You also are in a time crunch when it's time to return the car and buy / lease another vehicle. You can't time your purchase after an "announcement" but rather when your lease is due.

    If you buy, you can trade it and upgrade at anytime you want. 3 years seems like an eternity in Tesla years.
     
  16. IMF2000

    IMF2000 Member

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    I'm sure this has been noticed but the concept art for the M3 does not have wing mirrors, and with 8 cameras, why would you need them? (Except for regulatory reasons).

    I also think the new big update will be the HUD with M3 reveal and possibly elimination of wing mirrors, within 9 months.
     
  17. HumanGenome

    HumanGenome Member

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    So naturally you are getting a P100D correct? :p
     
  18. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 90D 2017.34 2448cfc

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    That's what I was thinking when I saw all of the huge discounts last month. I was tempted but figured they had to do something to stimulate 4th quarter sales and keep the momentum going. Enhanced Autopilot should help sales and increase ARPU as well.

    Congrats on getting such a great deal.
     
  19. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    I think everyone agrees on the HUD. The question is whether it a some sort of super HUD, or simply displays basic information. I'm increasingly doubting that a fancy HUD on the model 3 is financially possible.
     
  20. RocketGoBoom

    RocketGoBoom Member

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    haha, I got my 2013 Tesla Model S in late November and got those folding mirrors and parking sensors. I thought at the time that my timing was awesome on getting that upgrade.

    Then they come out with AP1 and I was sad wishing I had delayed.

    I am near 3 years with my vintage 85. Upgrading now in Dec 2016 delivery with AP 2.

    You get over it with Tesla.
    I am sure there will be something else within 6 months that will make my December 2016 car seem obsolete.
     
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