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I would venture even longer than that. I can't see how they release a major update such as 8.1 while still having such a restricted AP for HW2 cars. I would think that AP on HW2 cars would at a minimum have no Autosteering restrictions on the freeway, and possibility even no restrictions on surface streets (with the exception of +5MPH over).
While engineering resources will be devoted to HW2, it makes no sense to hold back 8.1 as that benefits everyone, even us HW2 owners. The linux kernel upgrade along with the Tesla app updates are long overdue. We are not sure how long it will take to achieve your minimum goals and the two are not exclusive.
jeffro01
Active Member
What's your current software version ? I don't see anything new reported on ev-fw tracker yet. Might be the minor fixes pushed to AP1 cars for the last few days.
mhw23
Member
That's because it's pointless, unhelpful information. Sort of a nonstory.
It's much better, if you are going to immediately rush to the forums in some sort of obsession with "being first" to report you have a software update, to at least post your current firmware version instead of stringing everyone else along. Ideally, folks would wait until the update completes and THEN report the results on the forum (provided they are worthwhile), along with relevant screenshots.
Anything short of that, again, is a waste of time.
wesley888
Member
You guys probably saw this already, but at the end of Musk's Tweetstorm this weekend, he said new mobile app is coming in about two weeks while the new kernel and other updates for HW1 is coming in about a month. There's a clear focus on HW2 software, hence the delay.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter
mhw23
Member
Basically, what was promised by end of December is now mid-March. I wouldn't bet on seeing Model 3 before mid to end of 2018.
I don't necessarily see this as a harbinger of delays for Model 3. From what I've seen, order of priority right now is:
1) Model 3
2) S/X HW2
3) S/X HW1
Not all-inclusive by any means, but as many things as they have going on, they know what's on the line with the 3 and they're laser focused. By way of example, we haven't heard/seen anything about Model Y or the pickup truck or minibus, and Elon stated over the weekend that we won't hear more about the semi product until Model 3 is squared away, stating that it was the overwhelming priority.
I think there are two different teams focussing on these. Model 3 requires manufacturing logistics to be worked out first along with a LOT of market research, planning etc. Software teams will be fully focussed on HW2 right now as that is expected to reach a certain level by end of year so it can roll into Model 3.
That said, any delays here WILL affect Model 3 development, it would be short-sighted to think such long delays on a very software centric company will not impact the next product. Entire planning on timeline and schedule will be tied together and not independent entities.
The entire car is run by software, which is a complete mess right now and far from ideal, while general public see the articles on all the tech of Model S, little do they know how far behind the "latest" car is even compared to their own car. Elon has to be very careful over the next couple of months, if this delay keeps going on and software quality doesn't improve and new features don't roll out, it will become more public and will hurt the image of the company which is HUGELY important for Model 3 to be a success since the USP's are getting matched by competitors as we speak (EV range, price point, rebates, driver assistance etc)
Its remarkable that he doesn't address the issues directly though and just keeps talking about other stuff. Might as well come out and say its pushed out by a month and we want to roll in all these features and are going to ensure its in working order instead of keeping everyone guessing.
That said, any delays here WILL affect Model 3 development, it would be short-sighted to think such long delays on a very software centric company will not impact the next product. Entire planning on timeline and schedule will be tied together and not independent entities.
The entire car is run by software, which is a complete mess right now and far from ideal, while general public see the articles on all the tech of Model S, little do they know how far behind the "latest" car is even compared to their own car. Elon has to be very careful over the next couple of months, if this delay keeps going on and software quality doesn't improve and new features don't roll out, it will become more public and will hurt the image of the company which is HUGELY important for Model 3 to be a success since the USP's are getting matched by competitors as we speak (EV range, price point, rebates, driver assistance etc)
Its remarkable that he doesn't address the issues directly though and just keeps talking about other stuff. Might as well come out and say its pushed out by a month and we want to roll in all these features and are going to ensure its in working order instead of keeping everyone guessing.
ev-now
Member
He has said it's pushed out by a month ... (indeed there was two weeks, two weeks (for the app), and now a month for AP1 software changes) ...
As others have noted, estimating release date is just not their thing right now - which is a b*tch for us AP1 owners, but much worse for AP2 owners hoping to get close to what they paid for.
As a long term Tesla fan, I really hope they can get this under control. Having been in the software industry for a very long time, the idea of releasing hardware before the software is (anywhere near) complete seems an (almost) fatally flawed strategy though. I really hope they pull it off, but am still betting on AP3 hardware being necessary for FSD. Of course the answer might be to revise the meaning of FSD
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
As a long term Tesla fan, I really hope they can get this under control. Having been in the software industry for a very long time, the idea of releasing hardware before the software is (anywhere near) complete seems an (almost) fatally flawed strategy though. I really hope they pull it off, but am still betting on AP3 hardware being necessary for FSD. Of course the answer might be to revise the meaning of FSD
I think hive communication between cars will be needed before FSD, or dedicated roads or lanes for AP cars. Maybe EM's tunnels will only allow AP cars. We would have a Bat Cave entrance to our own underground highway system. Driving in LA traffic will quickly get you to imagine such a utopia.
Dborn
Confirmed
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