Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!

[arubinst]

So, is all of this even possible without an extensive beta testing period over a large number of vehicles? (Not just 5 or 6 engineers but a rather large group of real life beta testers in different countries and driving conditions).

I'm surprised we haven't seen any leaks of the new interface or new features.

 

[MarkS22]

So, is all of this even possible without an extensive beta testing period over a large number of vehicles? (Not just 5 or 6 engineers but a rather large group of real life beta testers in different countries and driving conditions).

I'm surprised we haven't seen any leaks of the new interface or new features.

They’ll roll it out to a much larger Early Access Group before the general public. They’re under an NDA, though so they can’t confirm or deny anything.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So, is all of this even possible without an extensive beta testing period over a large number of vehicles? (Not just 5 or 6 engineers but a rather large group of real life beta testers in different countries and driving conditions).

I'm surprised we haven't seen any leaks of the new interface or new features.

During the conference call, Elon mentioned that it’ll go to early access folks in 4 weeks and wide release in September

 

[arubinst]

They’ll roll it out to a much larger Early Access Group before the general public. They’re under an NDA, though so they can’t confirm or deny anything.

During the conference call, Elon mentioned that it’ll go to early access folks in 4 weeks and wide release in September

Got it. Thanks!

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

I do not see how they can not include it when that is one of the big features to separate AP (AP1 Cars) and EAP (AP2+ cars). How can you have On-Ramp to Off-Ramp without GPS/NAV? Surface Street Driving and all that entails is a very large separator between EAP and FSD which is how it has alway in the past been presented.

Think of it this way. There is no ap1 or ap2. They sell Tesla cars. Tesla cars with EAP will do what they promise however way they want, and fsd will do something else. This is exactly amount of info we have today about their implementation. BTW, you are bringing up valid points and I just hope they do right by buyers as they have been so far.

 

[S100D]

Also, I really hope they remove the AP nag when you've got this on-ramp to off-ramp enabled.

I doubt the initial release of V9.0 will remove the steering wheel nag. Until FSD is available, I think we will continue to have the nag. Tesla owner's that did not purchase FSD may always have the nag.

 

[ChrML]

Now the big question is - existing cars who had ordered FSD. Will they get HW3 when it is ready, OR when FSD is 100% feature complete?

I guess that will depend on Tesla's confidence in the new chip being enough for FSD.

Tesla downplays this fact a lot, for good reasons, but replacing 3 years of production with computers is a significant cost. Even if it's relatively low cost and little labor to swap. They don't want to do that multiple times.

 

[BigD0g]

They’ll roll it out to a much larger Early Access Group before the general public. They’re under an NDA, though so they can’t confirm or deny anything.

People will know...

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

I don't want video games, I want Google music as my Easter egg!!! Ugh

 

[_TTT_]

People will know...

People will know here and there, but I'm always surprised that EAP participants don't readily post more, even on Reddit. I've been in an EAP car and it's always interesting to see "what's coming," but there have never really been any consistent leaks. I mean, the EAP program has been going on for about 6 years now and we have yet to have someone come to the forum with first hand knowledge on their car (...if we did, I missed it). That's pretty frustrating and cool at the same time

 

[Asterix187]

The NDA's are pretty tight and I guess the beta people want to keep getting the beta releases and helping the community in general. I am sure there are a few nice things coming in though.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

When do people estimate Level 4 will be reached?

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

When do people estimate Level 4 will be reached?

#, definitely # months.

 

[conman]

When do people estimate Level 4 will be reached?

5-10 years.

 

[diplomat33]

When do people estimate Level 4 will be reached?

about 2 years from now.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

I read an article on electrek a while back where someone aggregated the estimations of all large automakers and concluded the average of their estimates was 5 years, being 2023.
Some where estimating much sooner, others much later.

 

[Frizull]

Mobileye has been floating the 2021 date for years now, both with multiple EyeQ4 or two EyeQ5.

 

[rnortman]

When do people estimate Level 4 will be reached?

I find it really interesting that somebody with the handle "Nuclear Fusion" posted this particular question, because the first thing that popped into my head is "you might was well ask when people estimate nuclear fusion power plants will be ready". People have been saying fusion power is right around the corner for at least 50 years now. I think 50 years ago a level-headed, not particularly optimistic person would have said it was 50 years off. Today a level-headed, not particularly optimistic person might say it's about 50 years off.

Our best data point continues to be Waymo, which is furthest ahead in testing L4 autonomy on public roads in "easy" places like Phoenix. I think you'll have L4 release in these easy markets within the next few years, but those markets are tough to be profitable in I think, at least initially. It will be a money-loser for ride sharing fleets there for a few years. When we will have L4 in Manhattan, London, Paris, etc. is anybody's guess. Somewhere in between you have L4 that can handle some very profitable, less challenging markets.

Note that implicit in the above is the assumption that L4 (being L4 rather than L5) will roll out in particular geofenced markets. L4 is not the sort of thing where suddenly you have L4 everywhere in all markets globally. Not even close.

Note that this view of the rollout does not mesh at all with the way Tesla has been implying it will work! Tesla is full of it, IMO.

 

[rnortman]

Well, what do you know, no FSD differentiation in the first v9 firmware release; coming along with HW3 release, which is like next year:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[rnortman]

So now differentiation between FSD and EAP is dependent on HW3 (the GPU upgrade with Tesla's in-house-designed AI chip). So this is the first time Tesla has released a system based on an in-house chip design. Anybody care to wildly speculate how far behind schedule it will end up being?

Also, who wants to dig up Elon's old tweets where he expressed confidence that HW2 had plenty of compute power but "just in case" they'd upgrade people if more turned out to be necessary? Guess what, just like every level-headed person was saying, more turned out to be necessary.

Let's just quit believing that Elon has any idea what it takes to do FSD.