Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!

[Joe F]

So now differentiation between FSD and EAP is dependent on HW3 (the GPU upgrade with Tesla's in-house-designed AI chip). So this is the first time Tesla has released a system based on an in-house chip design. Anybody care to wildly speculate how far behind schedule it will end up being?

Since he's already on record stating AP2+ cars have been upgraded and currently being tested in the field, perhaps soon.

 

[diplomat33]

So now differentiation between FSD and EAP is dependent on HW3 (the GPU upgrade with Tesla's in-house-designed AI chip). So this is the first time Tesla has released a system based on an in-house chip design. Anybody care to wildly speculate how far behind schedule it will end up being?

Also, who wants to dig up Elon's old tweets where he expressed confidence that HW2 had plenty of compute power but "just in case" they'd upgrade people if more turned out to be necessary? Guess what, just like every level-headed person was saying, more turned out to be necessary.

Let's just quit believing that Elon has any idea what it takes to do FSD.

Don't be so negative. It's called reassessing based on new information. Musk and Tesla know more about FSD now than they did back then so it makes sense to change their timelines based on the new knowledge they now have.

 

[rnortman]

Don't be so negative. It's called reassessing based on new information. Musk and Tesla know more about FSD now than they did back then so it makes sense to change their timelines based on the new knowledge they now have.

Responsible businesses, and particularly responsible CEOs, do not make promises about things that they don't actually know enough about to make responsible promises. And this wasn't just promises -- they accepted money for those promises. Clearly without having any idea what they were talking about.

Edit: My real complaint is about people who continue to argue that FSD will turn out great "because Elon says so and Elon made a lot of money on Paypal etc etc etc". Elon is not a source of authority, and continuing to claim so is ridiculous. Base your arguments on anything other than Elon's tweetspew and you might have a real argument.

 

[diplomat33]

Responsible businesses, and particularly responsible CEOs, do not make promises about things that they don't actually know enough about to make responsible promises. And this wasn't just promises -- they accepted money for those promises. Clearly without having any idea what they were talking about.

I am suggesting that maybe they did know what they were talking about at the time that they made the promises but then new information came up that changed things?

Heck, based on your premise, no company should ever make any promises ever since they can't possibly know what the future holds.

 

[boonedocks]

So now differentiation between FSD and EAP is dependent on HW3 (the GPU upgrade with Tesla's in-house-designed AI chip). So this is the first time Tesla has released a system based on an in-house chip design. Anybody care to wildly speculate how far behind schedule it will end up being?

Also, who wants to dig up Elon's old tweets where he expressed confidence that HW2 had plenty of compute power but "just in case" they'd upgrade people if more turned out to be necessary? Guess what, just like every level-headed person was saying, more turned out to be necessary.

Let's just quit believing that Elon has any idea what it takes to do FSD.

This "who wants to dig up Elon's old tweets"

 

[diplomat33]

Honestly, I remain optimistic about EAP and FSD. The V9 update should add the new enhanced features to EAP that will make Autopilot much better than what it is now. The V3 chip sounds great and definitely good for FSD. And Tesla has some really talented AI people. The current AP hardware with the 8 cameras certainly create a lot of possibilities and potential for AI folks to take advantage of. It may take them awhile because FSD is so hard but I think they will manage to do some pretty cool stuff.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

Unfortunately the anecdote about the programmers/AI people being really excited about the chip was exactly where the audio on the Q2 earnings call dropped. Would have loved to hear a bit more about it.

 

[diplomat33]

I am also hoping that V9 will make Auto Steer even smoother in addition to adding new features.

 

[ucmndd]

Honestly, I remain optimistic

I admire your steadfast optimism, despite all available evidence to the contrary.

On a scale of 1 to 10, your optimism level is "Fred Lambert".

 

[d21mike]

I have been hopeful and optimistic. However, the tweet that the initial FSD Feature was coming in v9 (aug) was not that long ago. And now NO FSD until the HW3 is troubling. Did he not have any idea at the time? Did they just change priorities because what they were seeing was not going to be good enough? Hard to say. But as a software developer myself I have changed directions on a pretty big project when I felt the direction I was going was not going to work which extended things out. They may have just had the go/no go meeting and said we need to wait for the HW3 for it. And they have already been testing the HW3 in cars so maybe that is it.

ALSO, some time back, maybe around 2018.10.4 ELON said they were making really good progress but also they had to CRAM a lot into the existing hardware. I am thinking they knew then they would probably need to new HW3.

 

[diplomat33]

I have been hopeful and optimistic. However, the tweet that the initial FSD Feature was coming in v9 (aug) was not that long ago. And now NO FSD until the HW3 is troubling. Did he not have any idea at the time?

Musk never actually said that the initial FSD was coming in August. His tweet was very unclear. He did say that the first FSD features would come in the V9 version. That could be interpreted to mean that FSD features would come some time during the V9 series of updates. For example, they could come in 9.0 or 9.1 or 9.2. If that is indeed what Musk meant, then there is nothing false about his tweet. The HW3 release next year will be part of the V9 software so it is perfectly consistent with his earlier tweet. So I think this is an example of people reading his tweet one way because it was not clear but then saying he is a liar or incompetent when their interpretation of his tweet does not happen.

 

[u00mem9]

Or maybe V9 is some minor changes to the existing AP performance.

I hate to break the news, but Musk has an established record of tweets disconnected from reality. How many pages will we have by October? November? When was the tweet that FSD unique features would start in “about 6 months”?

37 pages of people who haven’t noticed the guy is 90% full of sh*t.

 

[boonedocks]

Musk never actually said that the initial FSD was coming in August. His tweet was very unclear. He did say that the first FSD features would come in the V9 version. That could be interpreted to mean that FSD features would come some time during the V9 series of updates. For example, they could come in 9.0 or 9.1 or 9.2. If that is indeed what Musk meant, then there is nothing false about his tweet. The HW3 release next year will be part of the V9 software so it is perfectly consistent with his earlier tweet. So I think this is an example of people reading his tweet one way because it was not clear but then saying he is a liar or incompetent when their interpretation of his tweet does not happen.

That is some serious Kool-Aid concentrate right there. Like Sam’s Club / Costco size

 

[diplomat33]

That is some serious Kool-Aid concentrate right there. Like Sam’s Club / Costco size

No, I am just not automatically assuming that he is some liar, fraud, incompetent etc... It's funny that you seem to think that if someone has a positive interpretation of what Musk says that the person must be some brainwashed fanboy or something.

 

[TaoJones]

I am suggesting that maybe they did know what they were talking about at the time that they made the promises but then new information came up that changed things?

Heck, based on your premise, no company should ever make any promises ever since they can't possibly know what the future holds.

Or maybe they could just deliver what they say they are going to deliver when they say they are going to deliver it.

Heresy to the faithful, I know.

 

[boonedocks]

No, I am just not automatically assuming that he is some liar, fraud, incompetent etc... It's funny that you seem to think that if someone has a positive interpretation of what Musk says that the person must be some brainwashed fanboy or something.

Nope. Just a 4 year owner of three different models and lived through the constant tweets and public statements of things that never come to fruition and if they do not as “suggested” since “promised” is a little overboard. My statements made as CEO of my company are either factual and happen or I don’t speak.

 

[arubinst]

Musk never actually said that the initial FSD was coming in August. His tweet was very unclear. He did say that the first FSD features would come in the V9 version. That could be interpreted to mean that FSD features would come some time during the V9 series of updates. For example, they could come in 9.0 or 9.1 or 9.2. If that is indeed what Musk meant, then there is nothing false about his tweet. The HW3 release next year will be part of the V9 software so it is perfectly consistent with his earlier tweet. So I think this is an example of people reading his tweet one way because it was not clear but then saying he is a liar or incompetent when their interpretation of his tweet does not happen.

Why do we need to read between the lines, analyze, interpret what he meant and what he didn’t, and what he could have or would have or should have said or not?

How is being fussy and unclear so that people can interpret that he’s not a liar a good thing?

 

[diplomat33]

Why do we need to read between the lines, analyze, interpret what he meant and what he didn’t, and what he could have or would have or should have said or not?

We don't need to. People are going to have different opinions and interpretations of the same thing.

Again, here is what Musk actually tweeted:
"That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now & fully fixed in August update as part of our long-awaited Tesla Version 9. To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features."

Now, I don't think it is unreasonable to read that tweet as promising that the V9 software version would be the beginning of FSD features. That's how I see it. But others feel that the tweet promised FSD features in August with the initial release of V9.

How is being fussy and unclear so that people can interpret that he’s not a liar a good thing?

It's not a good thing. If you reread my previous statement, I say that Musk was unclear in his tweet and I blame that lack of clarity for why we don't agree on what it meant. So no, I don't consider it a good thing.

 

[BigD0g]

Can someone just let me know when I can get my free lighted vanity mirrors retrofit now that they have the ones they like for the S please?

 

[u00mem9]

No, I am just not automatically assuming that he is some liar, fraud, incompetent etc...

I don't think you should "automatically assume". I think you should review the historical record.