Acho
Member
In his tweet Elon says "in August update". There is no "this August", "August 2018" or anything else that ties the update to this year. If this update is released in the month of August /any year/ he was spot on
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Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!
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People who prepurchased FSD are going to start getting new features later this year. They are going to start getting something for their money at the discount. So why would they be kicking themselves? They are getting what they paid for. I was talking about people who passed on FSD. They will be kicking themselves because they will now have to pay extra if they want any of the FSD features.
The doubters have been right about the delays, yes. But the jury is still out on whether Tesla can do L4/5 on AP2.5. And Tesla starting to release some FSD later this year would be a good sign that they are closer to L4/5 autonomy than the doubters think.
d21mike
Active Member
That was my exact thought while reading it. But after a bit you have to believe that at least Elon "believes" it is August 2018.In his tweet Elon says "in August update". There is no "this August", "August 2018" or anything else that ties the update to this year. If this update is released in the month of August /any year/ he was spot on
But he's admitted that he has a "problem with time".
Which frankly is the one update we didn't need.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
No kicking here. I'm quite happy I didn't give Tesla $3,000 on a blind promise for 2+ years. If at some point Tesla releases FSD features that I think are worth the cost I'll happily pay, but I certainly won't regret not doing it earlier, even at a $1,000 discount.
Fair enough. I for one, would kick myself if I waited on something and then had to pay $1000 more for it.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Tesla has lost enough of my trust that $1,000 is a small price to pay for certainty.
ahkahn
Active Member
For all the doubters out there, I'd like to make a couple of points:
1: The 3 month/6 month statement came very early into the AP2 software development... only 2-3 months after rolling the hardware out, if I recall correctly. At that time, if you recall, Tesla had just hired Chris Lattner to develop Autopilot, and things were looking very optimistic. I'd be willing to bet that Lattner set Elon's expectations at 3-6 month timeline. 6 months later, after numerous crap Autopilot releases, Lattner is out. A total 6 month setback where zero headway had been made. I blame the 3-6 month tweet on Lattner, not on Elon (who was probably misled, or at the very least, had very optimistic expectations set to him). Once Karpathy took over, within 60 days he shipped a complete rewrite/reinvention of AP2 software. That's huge progress. From there, numerous substantial incremental improvements have shipped roughly every 2-3 months thereafter. Musk said last week that the Autopilot software is exponentially improving. The foundation has been laid, and now it's going to consistently get better. Kudos to Karpathy, and Lattner was the wrong guy for the job setting the entire project back 6-8 months.
2: Model 3 software development. Nearly the entire year of 2017 required a substantial developer resource group devoting to developing Model 3 software from the ground up. 95% of that development is done, so resources can now be redirected back to the generalized software and Autopilot platforms.
Both of those two factors have been the reason why I believe Autopilot has been set back in the way that it has. Now that both of those issues have been resolved, I fully expect and believe that over the next 6 months we will see substantial improvements. Not sure I'd go as far as saying full and complete FSD, but with the resources devoted to it now versus last year, I can't see any reason why we wouldn't see much more improvement.
We will see...
d21mike
Active Member
The problem for me was. I have always been convinced that FSD would roll out over time (same as EAP now). And at what point would I decide to jump in with $4000 (extra $1000). I did not want to have to worry about that with $3000 being only about 3% of the price. Now, I will take what I get when I get it and just enjoy. Also, remember it may need more hardware at some point which I will not have to pay for. So, for me I have no regrets. Of course I only purchased the car in Sept. 2017 and plan to keep it a very long time.
I do feel for the customers who bought AP2 in October 2016. If I were one of them I do think I would probably still be holding a grudge because of how it was handled. Not sure how I will feel about my purchase if still be waiting in late 2020 for the first FSD Features.
I feel sorriest for some who leased a car with FSD in Oct. 2016. They thought they were so clever avoiding those oldschool AP1 cars.
If Tesla can add some cool FSD features now they will get a nice bump in people paying for the option. Your point of locking in hardware upgrades is a good one.
Maybe not, but I would pay quite a bit for a solidly reliable Level 3 freeway car (with appropriate regulations in my area to allow use,) and in this era of massive traffic jams all over, I suspect I'm not alone.
They/he have already promised to upgrade any car (AP 2.x) that purchases FSD to whatever hardware is needed to do FSD if what it comes with is not sufficient when FSD is finally out. Any new car comes with 2.5 (at a minimum, meaning if they slipstream anything else in, you get that also).
My X order got 2.5 in just this manner.
I’d not cancel if I were you.
Of course not, but as we’ve seen here and in the Electrek comments, people have a hard time differentiating between FSD the Tesla AP package and FSD the concept (level 5 and nothing less).
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
I just want the feature first referenced during the October 2014 event - stop sign reaction (not to be confused with mere plebeian recognition).
This same feature was again made to appear imminent at least two different ways (video, statements made) in December 2016.
If v9 launches on August 30th, just to pick a date, then maybe we get v9.1 by late Oct/Nov. I’d surprised if stop sign reaction was even in *that* release. Am not much interested in lane changing or exit ramp management.
But stop sign reaction, expanded to traffic signal management (I’ll stick with my previously-prognosticated 2019-2020 pending Tesla’s SoC), would be huge. Imagine 12 FSD-enabled Teslas, and only 12 FSD-enabled Teslas at a stop light. When the light turns green, *everybody leaves at the same moment*. Oh, be still my widdle heart.
Sadly, what we’ll actually have for at least another 20 years will be a mix of smarter and dumber vehicles at those red lights. Fortunately, below ground, there might be a Hyperloop/tunnel somewhere with effective sled management.
And so it goes.
This same feature was again made to appear imminent at least two different ways (video, statements made) in December 2016.
If v9 launches on August 30th, just to pick a date, then maybe we get v9.1 by late Oct/Nov. I’d surprised if stop sign reaction was even in *that* release. Am not much interested in lane changing or exit ramp management.
But stop sign reaction, expanded to traffic signal management (I’ll stick with my previously-prognosticated 2019-2020 pending Tesla’s SoC), would be huge. Imagine 12 FSD-enabled Teslas, and only 12 FSD-enabled Teslas at a stop light. When the light turns green, *everybody leaves at the same moment*. Oh, be still my widdle heart.
Sadly, what we’ll actually have for at least another 20 years will be a mix of smarter and dumber vehicles at those red lights. Fortunately, below ground, there might be a Hyperloop/tunnel somewhere with effective sled management.
And so it goes.
I'm just worried that they are going to be releasing the much anticipated refresh of the Model S which is overdue. Interior/longer battery that's been long rumored. Would be consistent with major releases/versions in the past... So if I'm getting the current P100D, and let's just say in August, they release a P125D, I'll be super bummed.
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