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Firmware 9 in August will start rolling out full self-driving features!!!
- Thread starter diplomat33
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- 9.0 Tesla Inc.
OK, so it is now past the middle of October. V9 does not have anything from FSD, and they pulled Drive on Nav so there isn't even anything that qualifies as "a new level of autonomy" by any stretch of the imagination. And now... they have removed the ability to pre-purchase FSD on new vehicles! What does this tell us about how long they expect FSD to take now? Anybody still betting on FSD next spring? Drive on Nav with ULC by end of year?
Maybe they're just finally getting smart -- as I have said many times before in this thread, it was idiotic for them to sell and accept payment for something which not only didn't exist but which they had no idea how they were going to develop (and, I would venture, still don't have any idea how to develop). Two years later somebody has forced Elon to accept this truth, perhaps related to the class action lawsuit that's just being finalized, or perhaps the SEC settlement that is forcing him to step down as chairman.
Edit: Also the specific issue that Elon was talking about above (merging lanes in rush hour traffic) was not better in the latest software at the time of that tweet nor is it much if any better in V9, and certainly nowhere near "fully fixed". For such a genius, he sure can be a dimwitted doofus when he tweets.
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If the "Drive on Nav" feature (that was pulled) only works from entry ramp to exit ramp on highways, that's not FSD functionality - that's functionality that was promised for Enhanced Autopilot:
"Your Tesla will match speed to traffic conditions, keep within a lane, automatically change lanes without requiring driver input, transition from one freeway to another, exit the freeway when your destination is near, self-park when near a parking spot and be summoned to and from your garage."
The Tesla website claims this can be done by only using 4 cameras (assuming this is the 3 front and 1 rear camera). Though to detect vehicles on either side of the car, the proximity sensors probably aren't good enough - and the 4 side cameras would likely be needed to provide the above promised functionality.
I'm very aware of this but thank you for pointing it out because my comment was ambiguous and many people don't realize that ULC is part of EAP. My point was that not only haven't they begun delivering FSD as promised, they haven't even finished delivering EAP. V9 was suppose to introduce the first FSD features (in August) and also a "new level of autonomy". You could argue that ULC would be a new level of autonomy, sort of, except they were very clear that even if the car is acting on its own the driver must supervise (making it still L2). But they didn't even deliver that so there's no way they can claim anything like FSD or a "new level of autonomy".
V9 added a massive new NN that enables all 8 cameras (See the Neural Net thread) which sets the stage for FSD. And Drive on Nav will come out in a future V9 update and it does add a new level of autonomy. If you had said that V9.0 did not do any FSD or add new autonomy you would be correct, but V9 is not done yet. It is too early to say that V9 won't do anything FSD or add new autonomy since V9 is not finished yet.
Only Tesla really knows how long FSD will take. But consider this: Tesla has a new computer chip to support FSD that is coming out next year. Tesla is enrolling employees into their FSD beta testing group. V9 uses a massive NN that uses all 8 cameras, a prerequisite for FSD. There are some good signs that Tesla is making progress on FSD. How long it will take is another issue but it looks like now Tesla actually has the building blocks to work on FSD which they did not have before.
On this, I do agree with you. And yeah, maybe the SEC lawsuit scared Musk and/or some directors at Tesla and they realized that selling a non-existent product was playing with fire. It was a bad decision in the first place to sell a non-existent product. Even if Tesla did genuinely believe back in 2016 that they were close to FSD thanks to their work with Mobileye, they still should have waited until they had an actual deliverable product. It is weird that it took Tesla 2 years to figure this out. But at least, they fixed it now by removing the option. Once Tesla releases the new chip and has some FSD features, they can remarket or repackage the "FSD option" into something that the customer will actually get.
No, they don't. And FSD is not primarily a hardware problem.
What I mean is that Tesla knows their progress. For example, they know what specific features they are working on. They know if their work is going well or not. They know what setbacks they are having or if they made a breakthrough in a particular area. So while Tesla may not know an exact date of when FSD will be finished, they do know how well their FSD work is going.
And I am fully aware that FSD is not primarily a hardware problem. Who ever said that it was? I don't think anyone here, certainly not me, is suggesting that when Tesla releases the new chip that FSD will be done. Why do you think Tesla is working so hard on Neural Nets? It's precisely because they know that it is a software issue.
Your belief when you started this thread was that they would "start releasing features that are part of FSD" and that "the first pieces of FSD" would land "in August". OK, does 9.0 count as "releasing features that are part of FSD" or "the first pieces of FSD"? It certainly doesn't count as "in August" since it didn't release until October but nevermind that. Did 9.0 include the first pieces of FSD or not? Is the upgrade in the underlying NN a piece of FSD even though it brings no new significant features, and we know now that the first FSD features will actually require HW3 and presumably another new/different NN? Is anything in 9.0 in any way a release of FSD features or capabilities?
And yet, Elon knowing all that he knows, still believed when he tweeted that (in June, less than two months before August) that they would release the first FSD features in August. (Or else he's just a fraud.) How much do you still trust Tesla's own knowledge of their progress and the work that remains to be done? How much can you trust a man who looks forward 2 months into the future and sees what by is own admission is now at least 10 months of progress, assuming they release HW3 and the first FSD features concurrently in March 2019 (which is awfully optimistic still...)
For Elon's June tweet to have been reasonable he must have either believed that FSD would be released on HW2 (because they had it running in internal beta already and it was looking pretty good for release in ~2 months) or that HW3 would be available in August (and that they were running FSD on HW3 in internal beta and it was looking pretty good for release in ~2 months). Neither of those scenarios are particularly easy to swallow knowing what we know now.
Maybe the explanation is that he was so doped up on Ambien that he didn't realize it was June already.
Let's hope the "stage" does not collect dust for years.
I don't think they don't know how long it will take
Where's the sign reading? I think this is actually their biggest challenge. Traffic lights, intersections and roundabouts. Situational context as well.
Indeed. But FSD has been sold to my S for example, and I bought it. They are at least forced to upgrade the hardware on mine.
Tesla and Musk is like a cat, they have 9 lives, but they are running out. Can't promise a castle in the sky too many times.
And yet, he continues to get away with it, and we're way beyond 9 times by now. The Elon fans keep believing his tweets despite him being proven wrong again, and again, and again, and again, and... He has some kind of magical ability to get away with this crap.
Not really. I've pointed out to you in the past that the non engineers in this forum tend to be far more confident in Tesla's progress than the engineers. Tesla doesn't know yet the many small but critical problems they will face as they approach level 4. Waymo, on the other hand, does know because they have done the hard work needed on this very hard problem.
What Tesla does deliver is late and does not match Musk's predictions. That is the most meaningful forward indicator. I'm waiting for Summon to reliably fulfill Musk's original spec. Summon is a tiny part of FSD.
Look, I just started this thread based on Musk's tweet. I guess that was my first mistake.
And yes, you are absolutely correct that FSD did not roll out in August and V9.0 did not have anything related to FSD. That's a done deal. You are beating a dead horse at this point.
What I am looking at now is whether V9 will have anything FSD. V9 could still have something FSD related even if V9.0 did not.
True but they still know more about what they are working on than we do. The real truth is that, with the exception of a couple posters here who have peaked behind the NN curtain, most of us are "monday morning quarterbacks". We are not privy to what Tesla is working on but we still give our opinion as if we do.
jeffro01
Active Member
How can you possibly say that? Do you work for Tesla? No. So you can't even remotely say something as ridiculous as "Tesla doesn't know yet the many small but critical problems they will face as they approach level 4. Waymo, on the other hand, does know because they have done the hard work needed on this very hard problem."...
Jeff
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I don't think it's magic. It's just lack of a compelling alternative. They still don't have any competition. Tesla/Musk is starting piss me off too, but what would I buy if I sold my Tesla? The only thing that's possibly more compelling than my current car, is another Tesla.
Well, yes, and despite all my complaining about Musk's failed promises we just picked up our new Model 3 a few weeks ago, ditching our remaining ICE car. We are now an all-electric household (S and 3). The cars are fantastic and AP even in its current state is the best driver assistance system out there (except for blind spot monitoring which is still not as reliable as a simple corner radar system that you can get in much cheaper cars).
That doesn't mean we should let Elon off the hook for the borderline fraudulent claims he has made and continues to make on a regular basis about AP/EAP/FSD. This is serious business.
There are many of us. I have been a happy Tesla car owner since 2014, and despite some issues I really do like my current car as well, but my relationship with the company and the way it has been run has steadily and increasingly gone the other direction.
FSD features are not just an "August 2018" promise either. In January 2017 Elon promised first FSD features (i.e. features not available with just EAP) in 3 months may, 6 months definitely. That means we should have had FSD features in April - July, 2017.
In October, 2018 Tesla stops selling FSD feature entirely without shipping any FSD differentiating features. Of course Tesla is yet to ship EAP either, though with Autosteer+ and camera-based blind-spot detection there is at least some public progress there. EAP was supposed to come in December 2016 too, according to the original wording in 2016 Design Studio...
Tesla also very publicly announced navigaton-based off-ramp for AP1 in late 2016 for December 2016 launch. That is yet to appear either. If it was almost ready for a late 2016 launch back then, what happened?
What happened in all these cases where things were just around the corner and then... silence? None of these were vague forward looking statements spanning years (like FSD in general), these were limited-scope, specific events timed a few months in to the future. They should have known better. It is impossible to shake the feeling they knew better.
Here's hoping the good thing about stopping FSD sales is the end of forward-looking sales and overpromises. That would still be a worthy outcome if it really happens.
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PatrickCH4313
Member
It‘s very strange, when configuring the Model S, the FSD option is not availble any more (Tesla Switzerlsnd)
Yup they pulled it from all models everywhere.
Tesla removes ‘Full Self-Driving Capability’ package from its options due to ‘confusion’
Will post-delivery FSD option go away?
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