Some people you just can't reach. Several of us have tried to get across to you that your approach to discourse is counter to your aims and polite etiquette. But apparently you don't want to listen.
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FIRMWARE UPDATE! AP2 Local road driving...and holy crap
- Thread starter Skalinator
- Start date
I think he was in a tough spot. They were pushing to deliver 80.000 units by year end and they had to make the switch from Mobileye to Tesla Vision. I think his only option was to sell the future. Personally, I think they should stick with selling what they have, not what they hope to have (which would include removing FSD as an option).
Theorycraft ...
If the rift with Mobileye was imminent, would you have recommended that they do the following:
(1) take off Autopilot features from the custom order page
(2) remove Autopilot documentation from the website
(3) contact all those expecting AP-enabled vehicles to give them the following choices: (a) cancel with no penalty or (b) revert from "configured" to "reserved, configuration pending"
With a gap between Mobileye-based AP and TeslaVision-based APe, they'd have had to do something like the above.
As a customer, I would have preferred the steps you listed; as a stock holder I would have preferred he do what he did. I have mentioned in other threads previously that there have seemed to be a lot of decisions going that way the past several months (available colors, interior bundling, end to unlimited "free" supercharging, etc.).
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
As AP2 with 17.5.28 is now, it is not safe. Some people here just don't seem to grasp the "HERE AND NOW". The future is the future. The reality is what we have now.
Simple yes or no question: If you're driving behind a car at highway speeds, and you can see there's no traffic in front of that car, and that car slams on the brakes slowing by 20 to 30 MPH, would you consider that person a safe driver? Would anyone here consider that person a safe driver?
I still think Tesla will be the most capable privately owned vehicles this decade. Since I don't believe there will be privately owned autonomous vehicles this decade, I don't see that Tesla has a lot of risk here.
If Tesla development continues to be slow, they can offer FSD refunds. But I don't think owners will be willing to give up the partial FSD features to get that refund.
Tesla Network running autonomous Uber-like service in the next 3-4 year seems like a whole lotta b.s. to me. But I would love for Musk to prove me wrong.
If Tesla development continues to be slow, they can offer FSD refunds. But I don't think owners will be willing to give up the partial FSD features to get that refund.
Tesla Network running autonomous Uber-like service in the next 3-4 year seems like a whole lotta b.s. to me. But I would love for Musk to prove me wrong.
The answer is that neither I, nor you, nor anyone, can correctly answer that question based on the limited information provided in your post. The question is whether after millions of miles of driving under comparable conditions, AP2-enabled vehicles are shown to be safer than the average human driver. Average human drivers get in accidents all the time for all sorts of reasons. They get distracted, they run redlights and stop signs, they lose control of their vehicles, etc.
What I can say is that based on the track record of the many, many people making similar claims with AP1, and Tesla's track record of rolling out AP1 safely along with its cautious roll-out of AP2, I fully expect that "here and now" vehicles with AP2, when used as instructed, are safer, i.e., statistically less likely to get into accidents, than those without, and that they will continue to get even safer.
And here: AP 2.0 - Lets log our experiences
That thread seems to attract a more reasonable crowd without the bitter Holden Caufield types.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Thank you. You've answered my question. I now know where your head is.
@EinSV let me try this way:
• Does AP2 suddenly brake for overpasses and/or signs?
• Does AP2 suddenly slow down for stopped cars on shoulder?
• Does AP2 decelerate too quickly for cars stopped in front?
• Is the above car behavior "safe"?
• Did people who reported the above behavior imagine it?
Whether the above behavior is "anecdotal" or not - it does happen on real streets to real owners with other real vehicles around and that makes the current state of AP2 NOT SAFE. Once someone rear ends you because AP2 "saw" an invisible car in front, I bet your claim to the insurance company will not be "anecdotal" and you will ask for real, not "anecdotal", money to repair your car.
Let me try another way. Tesla sold you a box and specified that the box color will be green. Upon delivery you discover that the box you received is yellow BUT Tesla is working on making that box green. You, with your twisted logic, calling people who state that the box color is currently yellow impatient and whatever else. You, also, saying that in 6 months the box WILL BE green and then all who called the box yellow will be wrong. Do you see the lack of logic in your line of thinking?
And then, you get all bent out of shape for being called a fanboy.
• Does AP2 suddenly brake for overpasses and/or signs?
• Does AP2 suddenly slow down for stopped cars on shoulder?
• Does AP2 decelerate too quickly for cars stopped in front?
• Is the above car behavior "safe"?
• Did people who reported the above behavior imagine it?
Whether the above behavior is "anecdotal" or not - it does happen on real streets to real owners with other real vehicles around and that makes the current state of AP2 NOT SAFE. Once someone rear ends you because AP2 "saw" an invisible car in front, I bet your claim to the insurance company will not be "anecdotal" and you will ask for real, not "anecdotal", money to repair your car.
Let me try another way. Tesla sold you a box and specified that the box color will be green. Upon delivery you discover that the box you received is yellow BUT Tesla is working on making that box green. You, with your twisted logic, calling people who state that the box color is currently yellow impatient and whatever else. You, also, saying that in 6 months the box WILL BE green and then all who called the box yellow will be wrong. Do you see the lack of logic in your line of thinking?
And then, you get all bent out of shape for being called a fanboy.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
People should be able to argue different viewpoints without being subjected to ad hominem attacks. It's a very low form of argument and worth getting bent out of shape over in my view. It's best to stick to the subject and to lay off personal attacks. It does nothing to further your argument.
That 39% percent reduction in rates of rear-end striking (FCW w/AEB) is pretty good if you consider that these systems are really primitive, and a lot of them (including the Tesla AP1) are only crash mitigation systems. It's hard for even good systems to stop in time considering how closely people drive on the freeway.
I'm a little skeptical of the 6% number overall crash reduction because it doesn't mesh with everything else they say. They also make no attempt to explain it. To me that would stick out like a sore thumb when AEB+FCW reduced crashes by 39%. So what's going on?
Anyways, a more important thing to look at is rear-end striking crash reductions on cars with really good adaptive cruise control systems. These systems lead people to follow less closely thereby giving more time to react/stop, and to also reduce pile ups.
https://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/esv/esv19/05-0282-o.pdf
Page 13.
The effectiveness of FCW is likely hampered by false positives, and slow reaction times to it. Plus the indicator is often on the IC, and not in your line of sight. It's probably best for warning for pedestrians.
The effectiveness of AEB is hampered by how crappy people drive.
ACC is really the only thing that changes the behavior.
One other thing to keep in mind is the study was done between 2010-2014 this was before fatality crashes started to rise. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive reduction with AEB+FCW considering how rampant texting while driving is.
What I'd love to see studied is the jerk car.
The jerk car wouldn't let you drive while it detected you using your phone
The jerk car would scold you for not wearing your seatbelt, and would refuse to go anywhere
The jerk car would play some awful music anytime it detected you tailgating
Now that would get some good reductions in at fault striking accidents, and injury claims.
Here is a good article on the iihs study.
It's a little more human readable.
Front crash prevention cuts rear-enders
It's a little more human readable.
Front crash prevention cuts rear-enders
Well, let me approach this a different way as well.
My son, who had a good driving record, recently got distracted while driving on a divided road at 75 mph, fishtailed, lost control and slammed into the median, totaling his car. It was the middle of the day and he was sober. Luckily, he walked away but he easily could have been seriously injured or even lost his life. I very much look forward to him having a Model 3 with AP2, as I have no doubt it would have significantly reduced the risk of this kind of accident, and others. And yes, I understand Autosteer is not enabled at high speeds yet, but I am comfortable that vehicles with AP2 are already safer than those without.
Your anecdotes are totally meaningless. People get in accidents all the time. What counts is reducing accident rates and reducing injuries and deaths. What counts are boring statistics and data, not histrionics, hyperbole and one-off experiences.
We have heard this same story before -- TMC was filled with accounts from AP1 owners of their harrowing experiences with AP1 well into this past fall. You still see seemingly scary reports of "truck lust." Yet, despite all these stories, as compelling as they sounded, AP1 enabled cars experienced a 40 percent reduction in serious accidents in the first generation according to the NHTSA.
If that data holds up, it will be the most important automotive safety development since the seat belt and possibly ever. And AP2 is a more robust system and is likely to reduce accident rates even more.
Given Tesla's track record and its focus on carefully rolling out features when the data say they are safe, Tesla has much more credibility than anecdotal information from random posters on the internet, especially those who seem all too eager to jump to conclusions that AP2 is unsafe, just as people erroneously did with AP1.
When people look back at this in four or five years and recognize the thousands of lives that can be saved by this technology, the histrionics around the release of Autopilot (1 and 2) will be remembered the same way as fears that seatbelts were dangerous because people could get trapped in cars that caught on fire, or that people would get neck injuries and whiplash. While those are real risks with seatbelts, they are far outweighed by the benefits. And while AP1 has its limitations, the NHTSA data strongly suggests that the benefits far outweigh those limitations. I believe that once the data are available, the same will be proven true for AP2, including in its current form, despite all its limitations.
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If you wear proper shades and put the box in the right lightning, it actually looks greenish!
For someone who is praising the value of statistics and hard numbers in making claims about safety of this or that technology, you are pretty quick to claim AP2 is safe based on a shaky analogy (aka, your sample size is not even 1).
Or in your own words : there are all kinds of reasons why technology may fail or help. Just because one implementation increases safety doesn't mean a different one does too.
NerdUno
Member
This thread is an amazing read if you care about technology as most of us do. You have a group of individuals who have grown up with the original Teslas who genuinely believe in the company and genuinely believe that everything will work out with the new cars. Instead of FanBoys, let's call them Cheerleaders. You have another group of us that have new cars which, at the moment, are dangerous as hell. I try to use AP2 for about an hour a day. I can honestly say I drive the car just as if I were landing an airplane for the first time. You can call it anecdotal or whatever you wish, but the car is more dangerous in AP2 mode than any other vehicle on the highway.
Let's face it. Elon Musk is one part used car salesman and two parts Steve Jobs visionary. I think he has the best of intentions. But he has to continue to sell cars to keep the dream alive. In the fourth quarter of 2016, he was between a rock and a hard place. He basically had new cars to sell with zero modern technology, features many of us have had in our vehicles for at least the last 5 years. No automatic headlights, no automatic windshield wipers, no adaptive cruise control, and certainly no self-driving capability. Elon morphed into a used car salesman from everything we observed.
Will it get better? Hope so. Should Elon have produced a very deceptive video to pitch a car that didn't exist? Probably not. I personally hope everything works out and that nobody gets killed during this grand experiment. In the meantime, I don't let my wife or daughter behind the wheel. But I'm optimistic that, in six months, things will be better. For Tesla's sake, I hope that both the Cheerleaders and I are vindicated.
Let's face it. Elon Musk is one part used car salesman and two parts Steve Jobs visionary. I think he has the best of intentions. But he has to continue to sell cars to keep the dream alive. In the fourth quarter of 2016, he was between a rock and a hard place. He basically had new cars to sell with zero modern technology, features many of us have had in our vehicles for at least the last 5 years. No automatic headlights, no automatic windshield wipers, no adaptive cruise control, and certainly no self-driving capability. Elon morphed into a used car salesman from everything we observed.
Will it get better? Hope so. Should Elon have produced a very deceptive video to pitch a car that didn't exist? Probably not. I personally hope everything works out and that nobody gets killed during this grand experiment. In the meantime, I don't let my wife or daughter behind the wheel. But I'm optimistic that, in six months, things will be better. For Tesla's sake, I hope that both the Cheerleaders and I are vindicated.
OBX John
Autonomous Driving Enthusiast
Thank you!
Once people have defined terms for each other more than five times, it's time for those of us who value information over bickering to move on. So many threads here become tales full of the sound and the fury, signifying nothing.
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