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First Desert Road Trip

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I am taking my first out-of-town trip since getting my 2021 Standard Range Plus in April, so of course I have range anxiety!

It’s a just a short 140 mile trip from Phoenix to Flagstaff, Arizona and according to ABRP, I should be able to do it without stopping to charge at all. However, I’m wondering how much of an impact the 107° outside temperature and steep uphill elevation change coming out of Phoenix will actually have on my range.

The trunk will be pretty full with cargo and there will 2 passengers and a large dog so the A/C will likely be on semi-high. Not sure how much weight and A/C factors in.

During normal city-driving I notice my range in the 100+ weather can fluctuate wildly, but I rarely care because I’m always in range of a charger or supercharger.

Any insight and advice is appreciated! I’ll also be happy to be told I’m overthinking and worrying for absolutely nothing!
 
I've done that drive five times now, and I find ABRP is spot on. There is a setting in ABRP (even on a free account) to specify the outside temperature and it will account for A/C usage. But don't feel pressured to eek it out- the Cordes Lakes SC is right off the highway. By that point you'll have seen how the current conditions are affecting your car. I find that the in-car tesla route planner is overly confident when I leave Phoenix, but by the time I'm to Black Canyon City, it has revised its estimate based on the conditions and whatever it predicts at that point should be what you'll roll into Flag with.

The only thing to keep in mind is the AZ SCs have been running at lower power when it is well above 100 degrees which has been leading longer charge times, and therefore some lines. But you can always check the number of available stalls on the dash.
 
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You have a place to charge when you arrive for your return trip? To me that would be the biggest concern. Evtripplanner.com use to be a good resource that would take in temperature and elevation. For simple math not calculating the elevation, you can consider your M3 to be 70% efficient at highway speeds. So, take your 140 miles multiply 1.3 = 182. Add buffer of 35 and you're all set. Maybe you drive a little slower and you're 80% efficient so 140*1.2=168+35 You get the point. This is all for peace of mind. As already stated, the onboard nav does a wonderful job doing the math.
 
I am taking my first out-of-town trip since getting my 2021 Standard Range Plus in April, so of course I have range anxiety!

It’s a just a short 140 mile trip from Phoenix to Flagstaff, Arizona and according to ABRP, I should be able to do it without stopping to charge at all. However, I’m wondering how much of an impact the 107° outside temperature and steep uphill elevation change coming out of Phoenix will actually have on my range.

The trunk will be pretty full with cargo and there will 2 passengers and a large dog so the A/C will likely be on semi-high. Not sure how much weight and A/C factors in.

During normal city-driving I notice my range in the 100+ weather can fluctuate wildly, but I rarely care because I’m always in range of a charger or supercharger.

Any insight and advice is appreciated! I’ll also be happy to be told I’m overthinking and worrying for absolutely nothing!
As dhtempe mentioned, if you have a supercharger on your route, use it. It'll eliminate all anxiety. Punching 107F into ABRP shows you can make it without stopping, but if you go faster than the speed limit, you'll have to stop half-way for 7mins. Use the app, to compare how you're doing relative to prediction. As for elevation, if you tap on the route, it'll show you how elevation affects the rate of battery usage:
by default 2021-07-02 at 5.47.30 PM.jpg

You'll find, if you drive faster, you'll get to your destination quicker, even if you have to charge. In fact, you can leave with 60% battery, drive at 115% of speed limit get to Cordes with 13% left, and charge up to 72% in 22mins, and continue on your way. That only adds 7 mins to your total trip, compared to driving at 108% of limit starting with 100%. The takeaway is, as long as there's a Supercharger on your route, drive fast and getting to the SC with low SOC, the time penalty is minimal. Unless of course it's a national holiday and lots of people are using the SC.
 
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The elevation change takes a big chunk out of range, so you’re right to be concerned. There are plenty of SCs on the route, though, so you’ll be good. The Flagstaff SC is difficult to find; go halfway up the hill to the hotel, and veer left into what looks like a small dead end parking area, and you’ll find it. Last time I was there, they had installed a tiny sign that said “Tesla” and pointed down the road.
 
I go to Flag often but with a LR model. In the summer, the car computer is dead on driving around 78-79 mph on I-17. In the winter, it’ll adjust down around 5% or a little more soon after you leave. My advice is to see how the projection holds up from Phoenix to Cordes Junction. If you’re losing ground, you can stop in Cordes. Time to go to the rest room is about all you’d need to give yourself a little peace of mind the first time you go.

I just did the trip without stopping on July 1st and it used 223 miles of range to get there.