First L3 Self Driving Car - Audi A8 world premieres in Barcelona

[Bladerskb]

Just an FYI for all...AP was designed to be Level 3 but anything over Level 2 requires state approvals AFAIK, so Tesla opted for L2 designation to allow it to be released now with features that are software limited and blur the lines between 2/3. Thats what has prevented the auto-lane change and taking exits (the REAL 8.1)...on top of the MobileEye setback as well. Remember the nags and such were all implemented after accidents/misuse of the system, had those events not occurred there would be less nags and probably more features to put it on par with L3...

Wow.
I believe you have a pretty bad understanding of what a L3 system is. An L3 system doesn't become L3 because you call it L3. Nor is the system classified as L3 because its high speed or it can change lanes and/or take off/on ramps or has more features. Those are not attributes of an L3 system.

There are three attributes of a L3 system defined in the SAE definition that the NHTSA and the U.S. Department of Transportation follows.

1. Monitoring the driving environment

2. Sufficient Handover Time (10-15 seconds)

3. Driving Responsibility for Accidents.

Failure to meet any of the above disqualifies your system from being classified as L3.

From level 1-2 the human driver monitors the environment completely. The system doesn't. These are the driver assistance we have today like tesla autopilot which are just glorified lane keeping and adaptive cruise control. They run into things left and right and attempt to kill you every so often depending on your use.

1. From level 3, the system now monitors the driving environment that means the system looks out for debris, obstacles, other vehicles and what they intend to do, etc. Things that a L2 runs into a L3 does not. For example traffic cones, barrier, car ahead, random debris/obstacles on the road, and things like slowing down for the car in the right because it has its blinkers on and wants to change into my lane. this is what it means by monitoring driving environment.

No l2 car today does that, they will run into every obstacle as proven by the videos of autopilot above.
A L3 car CANNOT do that. It must see every single obstacle, stop or avoid it and predict what every vehicle or pedestrian actions not just slowing down and speeding up based on the distance of the car ahead. A L3 must cooperate with other vehicles.

An L3 car easily avoids hitting this barrier and avoids dozens of other incident that i posted in this forum as examples
Dash cam footage of the potential autopilot crash posted recently. • r/teslamotors

Because an L3 car monitors the environment, the occupant can watch a movie, read a book, catch up on facebook, watch a youtube video or post on TSC.

2. A Level 3 system CANNOT disengage and must provide the driver adequate time to takeover which is about 10-15 seconds. This is in contrast with level 2 systems like autopilot we have today which have instant/immediate disengagement. A level 3 can never do that. NEVER. it can't ever throw the controls back at the driver immediately.

3. An level 3 system shifts the driver responsibility to the manufacturer. This is in contrast again to level 2, like autopilot where hundreds of accidents that have resulted with autopilot active, yet Tesla has consistently returned with "autopilot functioned exactly as it should, driver are responsible at all times, etc" and the owners have had to foot all the bills. However a level 3 system is in control 100% of the time. An accident on its watch and the manufacturer has to take responsibility. As Audi has come out and said it will take responsibility for all accidents during operation of traffic jam pilot.

Thats the part that is unclear to me and what makes the designation of L3 blurry IMO. If what I understand is accurate, Audi A8 will completely drive itself under 37mph but anything above that it will safely transfer control to the driver...so in the use case you are in a traffic jam that has varying speeds all under 37mph, and when the jam clears and resumes to 55+ mph you will be prompted to take control or the car will pull over? or keep going 37mph until you take control?

The audi system has an handover time of 15 seconds. The traffic jam pilot is based exactly on the jack platform with the same software and hardware and only has been artificially software limited to one lane and 37 mph limit.

In this video you see how the handover works (Multiple handover examples in this video)

Longer video (30 minutes of driving)

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

People building Teslas Autopilot sw has told you that Tesla has purposely handicapped it to L2?
Or purposely set L2 features as their goal instead of L3?
All because of government?

I'm so confused by this entire thread, and with the misunderstanding of what Tesla is going versus what distingishes level 2/3. Maybe the post from Bladerskb can help people understand what seperates

Tesla is trying to achieve parity with HW1 first, and then they'll add the EAP features. Tesla doesn't have to get regulatory approval for achieving parity with HW1 at least not in the US. To add some things EAP is going to offer I believe they do. Like it's going to be able to do unassisted lane changes while on the freeway. That's likely where the "subject to regulatory approval" comes from for the EAP package.

Separately they're working on FSD (the Level 3 and maybe beyond) part. As I understand it, it's a completely separate code base.

So I wouldn't say it's handicapped at all. It's just in development is all.

It's not like what MB did with their L2 system in dumming it down to make sure the user doesn't trust it.

Instead it's just a question of what was prioritized, and what gets released first.

I don't see anything BLKTSLA said within that paragraph as being all that incorrect aside from some misunderstanding as to what constitutes Level 3. Instead it sounds like what happens when a highly technical person tells another person about something, and then that other person tells you. So you have to kinda read between the lines of someone less technically precise.

There certainly has been the blurring of L2 and L3 within the way the media talks about AP. In fact I got into a heated email "debate" with someone from slate about what AP was. That in no shape or form was it level 3, and he insisted it "blurred the lines".

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm really confused.

VW owns Audi, and Porsche.

VW is forced to go electric.

There are at least a couple Audi electric Vehicles slatted for 2018/2019 time frame.

In all likelihood Audi/VW will be one of the most serious competitors for Tesla. No one else has the charging infrastructure that's needed to convince people to buy the cars.

Competition is going to be pretty fierce and I look forwards to it.

Who owns Pontiac?

 

[stopcrazypp]

I see no where Audi states it will activate it only in 2019.
I see only the change of calling the 2018 Audi, 2019 Audi. Other than that nothing has changed.



This completely destroys AP because you don't have to pay attention and baby sit it every 2 seconds. This is a real system not a gimmick.



Again i don't see anywhere it says it will be activated in 2019. Audi are trying to get this through regulator asap.
They are the only company whose tech is actually challenged by regulation.

Uh didn't the guy quote the Top Gear article where it says "Audi says law-permitting, the system will be available in Germany in 2019."
Watch out Merc S-Class: it’s the new Audi A8

Of course Audi might release it in other markets first, but from the articles it seems they want it working on home market first.

 

[stopcrazypp]

What exactly do you mean? They're undeniably first to market with L3 autonomy

From the articles, system isn't coming/activated until 2019, so someone else might still be able to beat them to it, if that remains true.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm so confused by this entire thread, and with the misunderstanding of what Tesla is going versus what distingishes level 2/3. Maybe the post from Bladerskb can help people understand what seperates

Tesla is trying to achieve parity with HW1 first, and then they'll add the EAP features. Tesla doesn't have to get regulatory approval for achieving parity with HW1 at least not in the US. To add some things EAP is going to offer I believe they do. Like it's going to be able to do unassisted lane changes while on the freeway. That's likely where the "subject to regulatory approval" comes from for the EAP package.

Separately they're working on FSD (the Level 3 and maybe beyond) part. As I understand it, it's a completely separate code base.

So I wouldn't say it's handicapped at all. It's just in development is all.

It's not like what MB did with their L2 system in dumming it down to make sure the user doesn't trust it.

Instead it's just a question of what was prioritized, and what gets released first.

I don't see anything BLKTSLA said within that paragraph as being all that incorrect aside from some misunderstanding as to what constitutes Level 3. Instead it sounds like what happens when a highly technical person tells another person about something, and then that other person tells you. So you have to kinda read between the lines of someone less technically precise.

There certainly has been the blurring of L2 and L3 within the way the media talks about AP. In fact I got into a heated email "debate" with someone from slate about what AP was. That in no shape or form was it level 3, and he insisted it "blurred the lines".

There were a lot of journalists that called Tesla AP1 L3 and insisted it was unsafe because of that. Heck, even a Volvo engineer called AP1 L3 (as did Mark Fields of Ford when he was still there). Volvo and Ford have publicly stated L3 is the most unsafe mode possible and that they would not develop that mode.

The line blurring mentioned was mainly from AP1 where the nags were not as frequent. It was possible to use it like a L3 car. Now that the steering wheel nags have been dialed up, it's more clear to people it is squarely L2.

 

[Bladerskb]

Uh didn't the guy quote the Top Gear article where it says "Audi says law-permitting, the system will be available in Germany in 2019."
Watch out Merc S-Class: it’s the new Audi A8

Of course Audi might release it in other markets first, but from the articles it seems they want it working on home market first.

From the articles, system isn't coming/activated until 2019, so someone else might still be able to beat them to it, if that remains true.

articles? are you kidding me. that one article is blatantly false just like other articles that call it traffic jam assist or others that call it a lv 2 system and at the same time call Tesla autopilot a lv 3. i even saw one call Tesla a level 5 when comparing the two. Journalist and their articles are the worst source of information.

Audi has released only this media statement and this is what everyone is quoting from.

The new Audi A8: future of the luxury class

Audi hasn't detailed the timeline but has only said that the car will go on sale and show up in dealerships in Europe in the fall and in US markets in early 2018. And that the automated system will be gradually released (because of regulation) and that there might be different versions of it in different countries/state that allows you to do different things in the car based on regulation.

The new A8 is the first production automobile to have been developed specially for highly automated driving. The Audi AI traffic jam pilot takes charge of driving in slow-moving traffic at up to 60 km/h (37.3 mph) on freeways and highways where a physical barrier separates the two carriageways. The system is activated using the AI button on the center console.

The traffic jam pilot manages starting, accelerating, steering and braking. The driver no longer needs to monitor the car permanently. They can take their hands off the steering wheel permanently and, depending on the national laws, focus on a different activity that is supported by the car, such as watching the on-board TV. As soon as the system reaches its limits, it calls on the driver to take back control of the task of driving.

From a technical perspective the traffic jam pilot is revolutionary. During piloted driving, a central driver assistance controller (zFAS) now permanently computes an image of the surroundings by merging the sensor data. As well as the radar sensors, a front camera and the ultrasonic sensors, Audi is the first car manufacturer also to use a laser scanner. The introduction of the Audi AI traffic jam pilot means the statutory framework will need to be clarified in each individual market, along with the country-specific definition of the application and testing of the system. The brand’s high quality standards are equally applicable in the realm of highly automated driving. In addition, a range of approval procedures and their corresponding timescales will need to be observed worldwide. Audi will therefore be adopting a step-by-step approach to the introduction of the traffic jam pilot in production models.

 

[Az_Rael]

I think the prospect of transfer of accident responsibility to the manufacturer is the most interesting part of Level 3 and it will be interesting to see how that pans out IRL.

So if the system gets itself into an accident or runs over a construction barrel within the L3 usage limits, Audi is responsible? What happens when an uninsured driver plows into one driving itself? Will construction zones be valid L3 territory or will it hand control back over at the first orange sign?

 

[bjornb]

The recent german laws require a black box in the car:
The legislation requires that a black box record the journey underway, logging whether the human driver or the car's self-piloting system was in charge at all moments of the ride. This will be crucial for apportioning blame in accidents.

Germany adopts self-driving vehicles law

 

[Bladerskb]

I think the prospect of transfer of accident responsibility to the manufacturer is the most interesting part of Level 3 and it will be interesting to see how that pans out IRL.

So if the system gets itself into an accident or runs over a construction barrel within the L3 usage limits, Audi is responsible? What happens when an uninsured driver plows into one driving itself? Will construction zones be valid L3 territory or will it hand control back over at the first orange sign?

How confident is Audi in its Traffic Jam Assist hardware? According to Alex Vukotich, Audi's head of automated driving, "it's meant to be a Level 3 System, so the driver can really relax, can do something else. He doesn't have to be in charge of observing what the system is doing, the system will do everything."

Dr. Peter Mertens, Audi's head of technical development goes a step further, noting that when Traffic Jam Assist is active, "There is no shared responsibility. So when the car drives autonomously, it is responsible." I asked Martens and Vukotich if that means Audi assumes full legal culpability in that operating condition, and they both nodded and said "Yes."

I guess if you get into an accident, its up to you to get that persons insurance information or information period. although there's a blackbox with all the crash details including video which Audi can pull and get license plate, etc.

 

[electracity]

How confident is Audi in its Traffic Jam Assist hardware? According to Alex Vukotich, Audi's head of automated driving, "it's meant to be a Level 3 System, so the driver can really relax, can do something else. He doesn't have to be in charge of observing what the system is doing, the system will do everything."

Dr. Peter Mertens, Audi's head of technical development goes a step further, noting that when Traffic Jam Assist is active, "There is no shared responsibility. So when the car drives autonomously, it is responsible." I asked Martens and Vukotich if that means Audi assumes full legal culpability in that operating condition, and they both nodded and said "Yes."

I guess if you get into an accident, its up to you to get that persons insurance information or information period. although there's a blackbox with all the crash details including video which Audi can pull and get license plate, etc.

That is brave on Audi's part. They wouldn't be doing this now without Tesla.

Putting the functionality in the A8 assures the total number of users will be small.

 

[Bladerskb]

That is brave on Audi's part. They wouldn't be doing this now without Tesla.

Putting the functionality in the A8 assures the total number of users will be small.

Actually the same traffic jam pilot will show up in all their new models (possibly in all 5 models that are coming in 2018)

Audi A8 leads way for five new models in 2018 | Autocar

So this is really cool, especially because i'm looking to buy a new car (or rather lease).

I currently own a bmw 3 series and i had a preorder for the model 3 before i aware'd myself on elon's inability to deliver, i cancelled my preorder and have been looking ever since.

I will totally get an Audi if the stars align next year, although i'm not a fan of the exterior. I prefer the Volvo 2019 new electric (concept 40.2) but their level 4 development looks like its not as far along as Audi and are quite a-bit behind.

i need a future proof car...decisions decisions.
I guess i can lease a car with the traffic jam pilot then upgrade after 2/3 years.

Oh bleakerslab is at it again. Why dont you go buy an Audi and leave us alone. Or at least realize that I dont even need to read your posts before I respond because I know what will get you all fired up. My guess is that you will be a model 3 owner soon, so congratulations.

 

[stopcrazypp]

articles? are you kidding me. that one article is blatantly false just like other articles that call it traffic jam assist or others that call it a lv 2 system and at the same time call Tesla autopilot a lv 3. i even saw one call Tesla a level 5 when comparing the two. Journalist and their articles are the worst source of information.

Audi has released only this media statement and this is what everyone is quoting from.

The new Audi A8: future of the luxury class

Audi hasn't detailed the timeline but has only said that the car will go on sale and show up in dealerships in Europe in the fall and in US markets in early 2018. And that the automated system will be gradually released (because of regulation) and that there might be different versions of it in different countries/state that allows you to do different things in the car based on regulation.

Nope, that's not where people are quoting from. Some of the journalists attended the Barcelona event, where Audi said level 3 won't be available until 2019.
Here's another report that said the same thing:
"Audi will be releasing more details on their extensive range of new driving assistance systems next year, when the model will hit the market. The level 3 traffic jam assist won’t be available until 2019."
Official: 2019 Audi A8 - Our First Impression - GTspirit

 

[BLKTSLA]

Wow.
I believe you have a pretty bad understanding of what a L3 system is. An L3 system doesn't become L3 because you call it L3. Nor is the system classified as L3 because its high speed or it can change lanes and/or take off/on ramps or has more features. Those are not attributes of an L3 system.

There are three attributes of a L3 system defined in the SAE definition that the NHTSA and the U.S. Department of Transportation follows.

1. Monitoring the driving environment

2. Sufficient Handover Time (10-15 seconds)

3. Driving Responsibility for Accidents.

Failure to meet any of the above disqualifies your system from being classified as L3.

From level 1-2 the human driver monitors the environment completely. The system doesn't. These are the driver assistance we have today like tesla autopilot which are just glorified lane keeping and adaptive cruise control. They run into things left and right and attempt to kill you every so often depending on your use.

1. From level 3, the system now monitors the driving environment that means the system looks out for debris, obstacles, other vehicles and what they intend to do, etc. Things that a L2 runs into a L3 does not. For example traffic cones, barrier, car ahead, random debris/obstacles on the road, and things like slowing down for the car in the right because it has its blinkers on and wants to change into my lane. this is what it means by monitoring driving environment.

No l2 car today does that, they will run into every obstacle as proven by the videos of autopilot above.
A L3 car CANNOT do that. It must see every single obstacle, stop or avoid it and predict what every vehicle or pedestrian actions not just slowing down and speeding up based on the distance of the car ahead. A L3 must cooperate with other vehicles.

An L3 car easily avoids hitting this barrier and avoids dozens of other incident that i posted in this forum as examples
Dash cam footage of the potential autopilot crash posted recently. • r/teslamotors

Because an L3 car monitors the environment, the occupant can watch a movie, read a book, catch up on facebook, watch a youtube video or post on TSC.

2. A Level 3 system CANNOT disengage and must provide the driver adequate time to takeover which is about 10-15 seconds. This is in contrast with level 2 systems like autopilot we have today which have instant/immediate disengagement. A level 3 can never do that. NEVER. it can't ever throw the controls back at the driver immediately.

3. An level 3 system shifts the driver responsibility to the manufacturer. This is in contrast again to level 2, like autopilot where hundreds of accidents that have resulted with autopilot active, yet Tesla has consistently returned with "autopilot functioned exactly as it should, driver are responsible at all times, etc" and the owners have had to foot all the bills. However a level 3 system is in control 100% of the time. An accident on its watch and the manufacturer has to take responsibility. As Audi has come out and said it will take responsibility for all accidents during operation of traffic jam pilot.

The audi system has an handover time of 15 seconds. The traffic jam pilot is based exactly on the jack platform with the same software and hardware and only has been artificially software limited to one lane and 37 mph limit.

In this video you see how the handover works (Multiple handover examples in this video)

Longer video (30 minutes of driving)

@Bladerskb - Don't take me passing information that was told to me, as me not knowing what the different levels of Autonomous driving are as classified by SAE or NHTSA. The reality is, that Tesla's autopilot was DESIGNED and PLANNED to be more than what it actually is but less than FSD, since you enjoy research pull all of the data of Elon and Tesla's introduction of Autopilot and it will align with the information I've disclosed. The fact that is NOT level 3 (SAE) does not disprove the information that was given.

Also all of your videos are of prototypes and concepts, this article accompanying the video alone tells just how far off Audi is especially with its 2019 release: Audi Piloted Driving : le futur proche, à l'essai - Blog Automobile

If we are going to show videos of cars lets just look at this and marvel at THIS Tesla with the same functionality as your A8.

 

[RubberToe]

Wow.
I believe you have a pretty bad understanding of what a L3 system is. An L3 system doesn't become L3 because you call it L3. Nor is the system classified as L3 because its high speed or it can change lanes and/or take off/on ramps or has more features. Those are not attributes of an L3 system.

There are three attributes of a L3 system defined in the SAE definition that the NHTSA and the U.S. Department of Transportation follows.

1. Monitoring the driving environment

2. Sufficient Handover Time (10-15 seconds)

3. Driving Responsibility for Accidents.

Failure to meet any of the above disqualifies your system from being classified as L3.

From level 1-2 the human driver monitors the environment completely. The system doesn't. These are the driver assistance we have today like tesla autopilot which are just glorified lane keeping and adaptive cruise control. They run into things left and right and attempt to kill you every so often depending on your use.

1. From level 3, the system now monitors the driving environment that means the system looks out for debris, obstacles, other vehicles and what they intend to do, etc. Things that a L2 runs into a L3 does not. For example traffic cones, barrier, car ahead, random debris/obstacles on the road, and things like slowing down for the car in the right because it has its blinkers on and wants to change into my lane. this is what it means by monitoring driving environment.

No l2 car today does that, they will run into every obstacle as proven by the videos of autopilot above.
A L3 car CANNOT do that. It must see every single obstacle, stop or avoid it and predict what every vehicle or pedestrian actions not just slowing down and speeding up based on the distance of the car ahead. A L3 must cooperate with other vehicles.

An L3 car easily avoids hitting this barrier and avoids dozens of other incident that i posted in this forum as examples
Dash cam footage of the potential autopilot crash posted recently. • r/teslamotors

Because an L3 car monitors the environment, the occupant can watch a movie, read a book, catch up on facebook, watch a youtube video or post on TSC.

2. A Level 3 system CANNOT disengage and must provide the driver adequate time to takeover which is about 10-15 seconds. This is in contrast with level 2 systems like autopilot we have today which have instant/immediate disengagement. A level 3 can never do that. NEVER. it can't ever throw the controls back at the driver immediately.

3. An level 3 system shifts the driver responsibility to the manufacturer. This is in contrast again to level 2, like autopilot where hundreds of accidents that have resulted with autopilot active, yet Tesla has consistently returned with "autopilot functioned exactly as it should, driver are responsible at all times, etc" and the owners have had to foot all the bills. However a level 3 system is in control 100% of the time. An accident on its watch and the manufacturer has to take responsibility. As Audi has come out and said it will take responsibility for all accidents during operation of traffic jam pilot.

The audi system has an handover time of 15 seconds. The traffic jam pilot is based exactly on the jack platform with the same software and hardware and only has been artificially software limited to one lane and 37 mph limit.

In this video you see how the handover works (Multiple handover examples in this video)

Longer video (30 minutes of driving)

I'll be the first to admit I'm pretty loopy from drinking the Tesla Kool aid. Then I read this post, and I realize the Audi Kool aid is really the shizzle. Only problem us the poster has obviously swilled it all, none left for hung over RT.

When this is in a released product that is being sold, get back to us. Until then it is ALL speculation. And when those German deer jump out of the black forest in front of the magic Audi, it is going to give the driver 10 seconds warning? What they been feeding those big, slow deer over there???

RT

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I'll be the first to admit I'm pretty loopy from drinking the Tesla Kool aid. Then I read this post, and I realize the Audi Kool aid is really the shizzle. Only problem us the poster has obviously swilled it all, none left for hung over RT.

When this is in a released product that is being sold, get back to us. Until then it is ALL speculation. And when those German deer jump out of the black forest in front of the magic Audi, it is going to give the driver 10 seconds warning? What they been feeding those big, slow deer over there???

RT

I think most of us have drank the Kool-Aid from one manufacture or another. I definitely drank the NVidia Kool-Aid, and went a bit nuts on their stock along with development kits for work stuff.

The cold reality is we don't know if any of this will really work. With autonomous driving it all comes down to a trolley car problem in that we have no idea where society will draw the line. How many lives does autonomous driving have to save when you know some will die due to unforeseen events, or glitches?

None of this level 3 stuff and beyond is really up to the manufactures. It's up to regulatory agencies to decide what's required, and what level of testing is required. The manufactures can demonstrate, and they can lobby. Hell I think 90% of what this stuff is has nothing to with car buyers, and everything to do with regulation. Why else did Tesla release FSD years before it was ever going to be released? It was to beat the drum. You build the pressure by convincing people that your cars have what's needed even if it's the second biggest lie told that year.

The manufactures can have competing technologies, and they can try to demonstrate why one is better than the other. They do have to work together on some stuff like Vehicle to vehicle communication standards.

What Bladerskb doesn't seem to get is the pull Elon Musk has. We know he's a hype machine, but that's part of what's needed. Here is this guy that's going to drill a tunnel below LA. Sure they joke and laugh about how long it's going to take to get the permits. But, does anyone really think they won't bend over backwards for him?

Sure technology wise I like what GM has shown with the autonomous bolt in SF, and I like what Audi is demonstrating with this A8. I'm trying to get more information on how Volvo's testing with real people is going on in Sweden. Technology wise I agree with Bladerskb that Tesla seems behind. But, they are ahead in fleet learning for vision based systems by going down the path they did.

This is exciting stuff, but it's just not exciting. It's absolutely necessary because cell phones have changed the entire way humans drive. I see it every day where drivers are massively distracted. They're seriously not all there when they drive. We have enormously safer cars than we've had before, yet the fatality rates are rising.

It's a crazy world out there now where it's completely hostile towards people who want a motorcycle, or people who want to bike to work.

The machines are here to rescue us even if they seem completely inept. That's only temporary until things have been incremented a few times.

My home security camera tells me there is motion when there is no motion.
My home security camera tells me a face has been detected, but there is no face.
I've told my home security camera at least a hundred times that "yes, that's me" and it still doesn't get it.
Alexa keeps interrupting while I'm watching a movie. How freakin rude of her.

So I can understand the hesitation in letting any of this stuff drive, but its never going to be perfect and humans are getting worse.

 

[NerdUno]

Page 3 of this thread should be a MUST READ for anyone that wants a real education on autonomous driving!

 

[GlmnAlyAirCar]

yeah it does actually look and the controls feel like "a spaceship."

Which spaceship are you referring to? Sounds like you must have some experience here.

 

[Discoducky]

Kudos to Audi when they release a level 3 system. Can't wait to experience it! I'm guessing it will have many limits like speed, certain roads and environmental conditions (even lidar can be blinded by low sun). I hope they can OTA updates.

 

[mrkisskiss]

Technology wise I agree with Bladerskb that Tesla seems behind.

Well, depends on your perspective.

I still maintain maps are the more under-appreciated part of the puzzle here. I doubt we'll see any real significant leaps in AP until they enable ADAS / HD maps. The exciting part for me is that Tesla can when they want to.

L3 is where you start requiring HD maps. Maps are fundamental to any kind of partial autonomy above L2 because they give you foresight, and solve the drivable path problem.

Speed limits? Lane lines? Speed for curves? Which lane to take for an exit? All easily solved with a true HD map. 10-15 seconds of gentle handover is easy, even 10-15 minutes... but you need maps. You simply start to warn the user before you run out of HD map. More robust traffic light detection? Maps. The map will tell you where the traffic lights are; you then only need vision to read their state. Much easier, and massively reduces false positives (or me just standing at the side of the road with a large photo of a traffic light on red).

Vision and radar then become responsible mainly for reacting to the immediate environment - cars, obstacles, pedestrians - not hitting stuff, basically. All the other factors can be handled by the map. At the moment, most of the AP problems are due to it struggling to find a suitable path. With the maps in place, this is largely solved.

Again, we don't know much about the mapping plans that Tesla has, other than it presumably involves Mapbox.

Imagine this: You punch your destination into your navigation system. The car works out that 85% of your drive is covered by the HD map, the rest will be L2 or manual drive (i.e similar AP experience as it is today). When the car enters the HD mapped area it chimes, you pop on autopilot, and now it follows a rail - with cameras for redundancy and variations (it'll alert, log, upload and process any deviations from the map data).

The current AP problems are gone: you no longer have to worry about it diving for an exit, hunting in the lane, ghost braking, hugging the wrong side of the lane, not seeing HOV lanes etc etc. In terms of driving down the road, it already knows where it's going, and it's always solid - it's on a rail. The surround cameras allow it to change lanes safely without any intervention, and adjust to realtime variables (move over slightly if there's a truck etc). Detection of objects is already really strong in AP today, and it'll only improve.

When you approach parts of your drive that aren't covered by the map, the car will give you ample warning and can revert to a L2(+) or manual system. This is a key point; the Tesla AP system can simply downgrade itself when it runs out of maps - and if necessary you can take over as you would normally - the difference is that the Tesla can warn you that you start need to paying attention; not necessarily that you'll need to take over manually.

I think we'll see AP as it is today (but slightly improved) available most everywhere, then EAP features show up wherever there are HD maps.

This is my ultimate point... For Tesla, they may seem behind on sensors... but they simply have to enable ADAS maps to massively leap forward, and they can do that for all of our (AP2) cars.

I'm just looking forward to that day

Whether or not Tesla will actually say that it's a L3 system (and therefore be subjected to loads of regulation and scrutiny) - well, I suppose the market will decide when they have to do that. If I were Tesla, I'd hold off from saying it for as long as possible, then go in to the regulators armed to the teeth with data.