First Model 3 Euro Delivery VIN and EU Model 3 Guesses

[emir-t]

Hello;

As someone from Europe who is about to complete the second year as a Model 3 reservation holder, (a reservation made after waiting for Model 3 unveiling 3+ years) I'm really excited to see the ramp finally starting to look good. Canada invites are soaring, VIN trend line and registrations are going up etc.

I'm jeaolous of North Americans living all this config, VIN, delivery, financing excitements. I'm sure there are more people in my case. I want to take your guesses on;

1)When do you think first EU delivery will happen? (I mean three phase Type 2 plug etc., not US import)
2) What do you think will be the VIN? Give or take.
3) How will they prioritize orders in markets? Whole of EU as one (meaining Eastern EU etc) or Norway first then Holland then Germany etc. If that's the case as a Turkish person my reservation would be pointless if I will get my Model 3 after all of EV-conscious contries are fulfilled.
4) Do you think there will be a CCS plug?
5) You know how Model S/X' final assembly is made in Tilburg, Netherlands? How are they going to keep up with Model 3 numbers without a new facility or expansion? No news about this yet.

My guesses;

1) December 2018, just to write it down in Q4 18 letter. Much like end of quarter ramp pushes. Fast EU deliveries begin February 2019.
2) I think 110k will be the first EU VIN.
3) I have no clue. I want to hope they consider entire EU (3 phase Type 2 plug markets) as one and send out invites accordingly.
4) Yes. Has to be.
5) The lack of news about this worries me a little.

Let's hang on together in this long wait. We're only 67% there yet!

 

[Tozz]

I do not have a source, but from what I've heard Tesla Tilburg will not assemble the M3. They will be shipped fully assembled to Europe from the US or they will be built by another company:

Tesla Might Team With Magna For Model 3 Production In Europe

Tilburg is at max. capacity with 90 cars/day.

 

[emir-t]

Norway will receive them fully built, as they have been Model S / X. However I think Tesla would still want to waive the import tax of EU. So either they will;

1) Expand Tilburg vastly
2) Pay the tax and import assembled
3) Partner with another company

I feel like they're a bit behind if they want to go for #1 or #3. First EU deliveries are supposed to happen in 10-11 months and there's nothing solid in terms of facilities. I would love seeing some Model 3 EU news. So many questions regarding charging abilties AC 3 phase, sim card accessibility easier than Model S? CCS charging? Delivery priority etc.

What is the import tax if they pay for it?

As for price EU-USD is already 1,23. 35k Model 3 should equate to 30k €. Yet they will probably take those margins glad fully and call it 35k € base.

 

[J1mbo]

Well, there was this...

Tesla has not yet confirmed the timescale for building Gigafactory 2 in Europe, with Musk adding that Tesla would do so after production of the Model 3 was under way. Tesla could eventually have as many as three vehicle and battery factory locations in Europe, he said.

 

[sweter]

I think 1st European deliveries will start in Norway. They did so with Model S before launching Tilburg. So I fully expect 1st batch of invites will be Norway only. Sometime in December this year with deliveries Feb/March 2019 like you said.

Hopefully by that time we will be at 6-7k/week and will smash through EU deliveries fast and I get mine in late Spring, just in time for a eurotrip!

As for price EU-USD is already 1,23. 35k Model 3 should equate to 30k €. Yet they will probably take those margins glad fully and call it 35k € base.

Don't forget VAT and other taxes. It won't be 35k EUR but it won't be 30k EUR either. I think base will be around 33k EUR with all taxes.

My budget is ~50k EUR for LR, PUP, paint, no autopilot.

 

[anttist]

I don't understand what do you base your price estimates on.

35000 USD is 28700 EUR.
Lets assume a very modest 2000 EUR transport + delivery fee (1000 USD in US)
Import tax for a car produced outside EU is 10%

Base price in EU country which has 21% VAT: (28700+2000)*1.10*1.21 = 40862 EUR

I hope they find a way to assemble the car in EU to avoid 10% tax but still the base price will not be anywhere near 33000 EUR.

LR+PUP+paint would be around 57100 EUR using the same formula.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I do not have a source, but from what I've heard Tesla Tilburg will not assemble the M3. They will be shipped fully assembled to Europe from the US or they will be built by another company:

Tesla Might Team With Magna For Model 3 Production In Europe

Tilburg is at max. capacity with 90 cars/day.

All I read is a supplier pumping themselves.

Tesla's Tilburg operations are a workaround to avoid import duty. Tesla just needs a bigger place in which to put wheels on.

 

[Tozz]

Tesla just needs a bigger place in which to put wheels on.

Maybe a bit OT, but from what i've understand Tilburg doesn't just put wheels under the car now. It used to be the case that the cars were built fully in the US, tested, passed inspection and then they would remove the wheels and pack, ship it to Europe, so Tilburg can screw it all together again.

They have changed this. Now the car is built on dummy drivetrain assembly and without a pack. The car never "boots" in the US at it never gets powered on. The first ever power-on is done in Tilburg, and then Tilburg does all the testing/PDI.

 

[emir-t]

I don't understand what do you base your price estimates on.

35000 USD is 28700 EUR.
Lets assume a very modest 2000 EUR transport + delivery fee (1000 USD in US)
Import tax for a car produced outside EU is 10%

Base price in EU country which has 21% VAT: (28700+2000)*1.10*1.21 = 40862 EUR

I hope they find a way to assemble the car in EU to avoid 10% tax but still the base price will not be anywhere near 33000 EUR.

LR+PUP+paint would be around 57100 EUR using the same formula.

Well, I was excluding VAT from the base price and was assuming there still would be a workaround for the 10% import tax. There’s no Tesla presence in my country. We take the Euro base price without VAT or anything and add 3% new car tax, 18% vat and customs handling costs to find out end user cost.

I don’t think Tesla would reflect EUR/USD parity as is. They sure aren’t with Model S. They will want to enjoy strong margins in Europe.