Audi Q6 e-tron EV

[techmaven]

Audi's battery acquisition plans and potential are IMO unknown, we don't know enough, so it comes down to what we believe. Mind you, I'm not saying batteries are not an issue especially for the 2018 model, but I do believe there is a serious plan and capability to execute a ramp-up for Audi that starts in 2018.

Based on what?

VW Group thought about establishing their own battery plant in Germany back in May/June/July last year:
VW mulls $11 billion battery cell plant

Hmm... right when the Model 3 reveal hoopla was going on... The Salzgitter plant was even reported as decided by several media outlets.

Then by September:
Volkswagen CEO denies plans for EV battery plant

Now Volkswagen CEO Matthias Müller qualified these reports as “complete nonsense”. In an interview with business paper Handelsblatt, Müller said “we certainly won’t do such a nonsense”, referring to the reporter’s question if the company had any plans to fabricate their own traction batteries.

The idea that they can just source their batteries from LG and Samsung is laughable if they were really aggressively cutting over in the 2019 through 2022 time period. For example, Samsung SDI's Hungary plant is a meager one... only $358 million invested, starting operations in 2H 2018 for roughly 2 GWh. It will take 2 years just to start operations for this small-ish plant. LG Chem's Poland plant is likely going to be twice the size, going to maybe 3 times eventually. The two added together, with 2019-2020 capacity, is less than Tesla's 2017 capacity for the Gigafactory 1. That's to supply Volvo, Renault, VW, Audi, Porsche, Nissan, and others. The Chinese capacity likely goes towards Chinese demand, the LG plant in Michigan is making cells for the GM/Ford/FCA at a mere 2-3 GWh, and SK Innovations is only going to 4 GWh for Mercedes. It takes years to bring capacity online... for 2019, it's already late for multi-GWh factories. Likely a project starting today for 10+ GWh will not be online until the 2020's.

More on VW's lack of vision:
Is the industry zooming toward a battery shortage?

The reality is that the major automakers will likely wait for solid state chemistry to overcome its big hurdles before committing heavily to BEVs. In the meantime, they'll make all sorts of FUD to try to rein in Tesla as they play this waiting game. They hope that the chemistry will be viable in the 2020's... and then they don't have to worry about the current generation of BEVs. So they make a few token ones to satisfy governmental regulations and what they perceive as the token small market.

 

[thegruf]

It is important to recognize this cheating affects not only VW branded cars, but other brands of the Volkswagen group.

Switzerland just banned Porsche Cayenne Euro-6 norm diesels cars because they still cheat and sell cars with cheating software. They are using an engine built by Audi. This is so staggering. Also cars fulfilling the latest norm are affected. Although cought 2015, 2 years ago, the STILL cheat and still tried to sell cars with cheating software.

My point precisely - companies don't change culture on a dime.

The end result of this cheating is statistically literally people dying, cities eg London in the EU being fined by the EU for atmospheric pollution non-compliance in not inconsiderable part due to the false claims of VAG Audi and others.

Well done Switzerland for calling VAG Porsche out on this yet again (same engine in Audi A4/A5/Q5/Q7 btw.

btw did you know that Audi have "paused" manufacture of a number of models to rewrite software due to false claims about emissions/economy. NO WAY on earth they did that unless under extreme pressure from a regulator, the cost must be astronomical. All being kept very hush hush but something extremely serious went down here and VAG were told to fix it or else.

Audi hit by sales pause on A4 and A5 models

One of the "advantages" big automakers have is lots of dealers so you can have your car serviced locally.
So when VAG Audi have trained all of their dealers so you have one local to you ...
Love to see you take your Audi EV into your average local dealer to get it's 800V system checked over. Shudder.

Nobody disputes Audi CAN make an EV - but there is MUCH more to it than that.
For now they are just making noise in a crude attempt at market spoiling.
I prefer silence until they truly have a viable ownership solution in place.

 

[tescroft]

In Germany one state owns 20% of VW and politicians are board members. The politicians are also responsible for the citizens including 70,000 staff at the VW home plant in Wolfsburg and thousands more working at an engine factory at Salzgitter.

Yes, beside the german country (respectivly one of the substates), Quatar, an arabic oil countrly, directly owns 17% of Volkswagen and an additional 5% indirectly through Porsche SE, which owns 50% of VW. And they wanna tell me they're serious about EVs?

Further, Ferdinand Piech, a member of the Piech family which control about 52% of the Volkswagen shares, is a dedicated petrol head and diesel fan. When he took over the VW CEO position coming from Audi, he first killed the electric car program that was running together with Swatch. This was a very sophistic EV program with a small city car and four-wheel hub motors, back in the 90s. Nikolas Hayek from Swatch was the european Musk trying to revolutionize the car business in the 90s with an enviroment friendly EV for the masses. He failed, because he partnered with german automakers, first with VW, later with Mercedes. Basicly, Ferdinand Piech was the guy that killed the european electric car. The project continued with Mercedes after the shutdown at VW. But Mercedes also killed the EV approach and put a petrol engine in the car. The Smart car is the result of it you can buy today. It is an absurdity that Mercedes later approached Tesla to help them getting a EV converted Smart car to market, after they killed their own advanced development a few years before.

VW is the GM of Europe in terms of EVs. Piech made Audi successful with Diesel engines, he wanted to make VW successfull with Diesels. Basicly, VW is Piech. They own that company. They control it in terms of share voting. They can do whatever they want. They have absolutly zero credibility in terms of EVs for me. Thats why the Audi/VW/Porsche announcements on electric vehicles are so ridiculous.

 

[Laserbrain]

Switzerland just banned Porsche Cayenne Euro-6 norm diesels cars because they still cheat and sell cars with cheating software.

Since when is Berlin in Switzerland? Just wondering...

From your link: "Für europaweit 22.000 Fahrzeuge, davon 7500 in Deutschland, vom Typ Cayenne 3 Liter TDI werde ein Pflicht-Rückruf angeordnet, sagte Dobrindt am Donnerstag in Berlin."

Germany banned these cars Europe-wide. But it is all smoke and mirrors, a tiny sacrifice to give the Impression that the politicians would care. But they do not care because they get millions of euros in form of "donations" from the car industry. The german politicians are the lowest scum in the world - almost as bad as Trump.

 

[tescroft]

Since when is Berlin in Switzerland? Just wondering...

From your link: "Für europaweit 22.000 Fahrzeuge, davon 7500 in Deutschland, vom Typ Cayenne 3 Liter TDI werde ein Pflicht-Rückruf angeordnet, sagte Dobrindt am Donnerstag in Berlin."

Germany banned these cars. But it is all smoke and mirrors, a tiny sacrifice to give the Impression that the politicians would care. But they do not care because the get millions of euros in form of "donations" from the car industry. The german politicians are the lowest scum in the world - almost as bad as Trump.

Sorry, that was the wrong link for germany, here is the right one if you're interrested: ASTRA verhängt Zulassungsstopp für manipulierte Porsche Cayenne mit Dieselmotor. Other countries banned the car as well.

 

[Spidy]

Guys there are more than enough threads on his forum to talk about Diesel bans and politics...

 

[Laserbrain]

Sorry, that was the wrong link for germany, here is the right one if you're interrested: ASTRA verhängt Zulassungsstopp für manipulierte Porsche Cayenne mit Dieselmotor. Other countries banned the car as well.

Germany ordered a "Zulassungsverbot".

From your first link: "Außerdem werde ein Zulassungsverbot für diese Geländewagen erlassen, so dass keine weiteren Exemplare auf die Straße kommen, bis eine andere Software zur Verfügung stehe."

Thats not just a recall. And look at the dates: Germany 27.7. and Switzerland 18.8.

From your new link: "Der vorläufige Zulassungsstopp betrifft nur Fahrzeuge, die erstmals in der Schweiz immatrikuliert werden. Nicht betroffen sind bereits in der Schweiz immatrikulierte Fahrzeuge. Diese dürfen weiter verkehren, müssen aber nachgerüstet werden."

So it is a Zulassungsverbot in Switzerland, too.

Both countries did the exact same thing. Which makes both countries pathetic, because there are tens of thousands Audi SUVs with the exact same dirty engine which got not banned.

 

[tescroft]

Yes, if you already bought the car, you're still allowed to drive it, even if it is dirty. It is not the customers fault, they've been duped. But new cars of this type are banned and are not allowed to be sold.

 

[thegruf]

Guys there are more than enough threads on his forum to talk about Diesel bans and politics...

Very true - in this context however it serves to demonstrate that press releases from VAG Audi et al are likely not to be credible from companies who have proved repeatedly they are not to be trusted.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

VW is the GM of Europe in terms of EVs. Piech made Audi successful with Diesel engines, he wanted to make VW successfull with Diesels. Basicly, VW is Piech. They own that company. They control it in terms of share voting. They can do whatever they want. They have absolutly zero credibility in terms of EVs for me. Thats why the Audi/VW/Porsche announcements on electric vehicles are so ridiculous.

The history is indeed very interesting, but that's - to me - the same as babbling on about EV1 in 2017. It is history. Very sad events took place in the 1990s as well as in the 2000s regarding EVs, that is all quite true.

But getting stuck in history is equally dangerous to both the makers and the observers - it can seriously mislead either side. In this case, I am saying those looking at Audi's BEV progress today are mistaken if they are stuck in history in their perception.

We shall see who is right, of course. I respect opposing views, but a couple of things are different today for VW/Audi: Tesla is one, the Dieselgate aftermath is another.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Very true - in this context however it serves to demonstrate that press releases from VAG Audi et al are likely not to be credible from companies who have proved repeatedly they are not to be trusted.

Your opinion is all well and good. My opinion is: these cars are no longer press release cars. They are not even R8 e-tron's. No, these are genuine, normal cars on Audi's roadmap and once cars enter that pipeline it is very rare that they walk back on them.

IMO Audi is poised to be the first large-battery premium BEV maker on the market as well as the company first out with a Level 3 autonomous car. That means IMO Tesla fans would be wise to take them seriously in their analysis.

To treat them just like press releases or concept cars of history would be IMO a mistake. Being stuck in history.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

My point precisely - companies don't change culture on a dime.

Of course not. My point is enough has happened to finally turn Audi around and we are witnessing the results of that starting in 2018. That does not mean change is instant. Of course not. But to me it seems Audi is the first old premium maker to come out with a serious response to Tesla's BEV and autonomous progress. That does not - mind you - mean beating Tesla in their own game, not at all, just that Audi is IMO poised to become the first company with a serious response on the market in 2018. Jaguar will enter the market around the same time, but their response (while I personally love it as a product), is not IMO as serious.

Based on what?

VW Group thought about establishing their own battery plant in Germany back in May/June/July last year:
VW mulls $11 billion battery cell plant

Hmm... right when the Model 3 reveal hoopla was going on... The Salzgitter plant was even reported as decided by several media outlets.

Then by September:
Volkswagen CEO denies plans for EV battery plant



The idea that they can just source their batteries from LG and Samsung is laughable if they were really aggressively cutting over in the 2019 through 2022 time period. For example, Samsung SDI's Hungary plant is a meager one... only $358 million invested, starting operations in 2H 2018 for roughly 2 GWh. It will take 2 years just to start operations for this small-ish plant. LG Chem's Poland plant is likely going to be twice the size, going to maybe 3 times eventually. The two added together, with 2019-2020 capacity, is less than Tesla's 2017 capacity for the Gigafactory 1. That's to supply Volvo, Renault, VW, Audi, Porsche, Nissan, and others. The Chinese capacity likely goes towards Chinese demand, the LG plant in Michigan is making cells for the GM/Ford/FCA at a mere 2-3 GWh, and SK Innovations is only going to 4 GWh for Mercedes. It takes years to bring capacity online... for 2019, it's already late for multi-GWh factories. Likely a project starting today for 10+ GWh will not be online until the 2020's.

More on VW's lack of vision:
Is the industry zooming toward a battery shortage?

The reality is that the major automakers will likely wait for solid state chemistry to overcome its big hurdles before committing heavily to BEVs. In the meantime, they'll make all sorts of FUD to try to rein in Tesla as they play this waiting game. They hope that the chemistry will be viable in the 2020's... and then they don't have to worry about the current generation of BEVs. So they make a few token ones to satisfy governmental regulations and what they perceive as the token small market.

Your analysis and speculation is all very well and good - and noted. I don't see any reason to argue it, because my point merely is that we don't know enough to say anything for certain. I do agree battery availability is a limitation and that I'm not expecting anyone to beat Tesla in the following years.

I am merely talking about a serious response to Tesla. Today there is none. In 2018 and 2019 I expect there to be one: Audi. I don't think there will be others yet, other than a teensy, tiny effort from Jaguar.

 

[tescroft]

I agree that it is dangerous to rely on history in regards to the future. This also applies to Tesla in regards to their ability for quality and high volume manufacturing as well as the ability to make profits.

At the end, it is the people behind it which drive the (future) strategy of a company. The Piech clan is still in charge. Why should they act differently now, in contrast to what their personally believe? These are people with strong opinions. They don't change if they're not forced or overruled. It is difficult to change a culture. Working class people see which buddies get rewarded. I doubt EV teams get the big bonuses there. It is not just an Audi problem. There is nobody in that industry with a visionary leadership towards a sustainable future. The AUDI CEO is in charge since 2007 and also responsible for the current situation with zero EVs on the market and stumbling with diesel cheating. A quote from that guy from 2016: "The diesel is one of the most attractive drive technologies we have {...} We will drive electrically, initially with hybrids, then with battery-electric vehicles and certainly once with hydrogen drive. The fossil fuel will gradually disappear from the big cities. However, we will still need the internal combustion engine for several years or decades.. ". This does not sound very convincing EV strategy to me, reads more like a traditional slow conversion strategy, which does not believe in BEVs as long distance travel cars.

 

[jelloslug]

Your opinion is all well and good. My opinion is: these cars are no longer press release cars. They are not even R8 e-tron's. No, these are genuine, normal cars on Audi's roadmap and once cars enter that pipeline it is very rare that they walk back on them.

IMO Audi is poised to be the first large-battery premium BEV maker on the market as well as the company first out with a Level 3 autonomous car. That means IMO Tesla fans would be wise to take them seriously in their analysis.

To treat them just like press releases or concept cars of history would be IMO a mistake. Being stuck in history.

VAG is still pulls the "just around the corner" nonsense that they have been doing for years. They still have no real products other than prototypes and renders. They have gambled on EVs failing by now and now they are scrambling.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

VAG is still pulls the "just around the corner" nonsense that they have been doing for years. They still have no real products other than prototypes and renders. They have gambled on EVs failing by now and now they are scrambling.

See, that's where we disagree. Many companies are in that scrambling stage.

IMO Audi is not the company in that stage anymore, they turned a corner sooner than anyone else of the old players in the premium segment.

Anyway, enough of repeating that opinion, I guess people got it by now. It is just my opinion, of course. If Audi fails to come up with the e-tron quattro and e-tron Sportback in 2018 and 2019 respectively (in any meaningful way), and some other old premium maker beats them to the market instead with serious large-battery BEV entries, I stand corrected.

Until then, my money is on Audi being the first to offer some level of serious response to Tesla in the premium segment in the next year and two. Not bypass Tesla, of course not, but at least first with a serious response.

 

[jelloslug]

See, that's where we disagree. Many companies are in that scrambling stage.

IMO Audi is not the company in that stage anymore, they turned a corner sooner than anyone else of the old players in the premium segment.

Anyway, enough of repeating that opinion, I guess people got it by now. It is just my opinion, of course. If Audi fails to come up with the e-tron and e-tron Sportback in 2018 and 2019 respectively (in any meaningful way), and some other old premium maker beats them to the market instead with serious large-battery BEV entries, I stand corrected.

Until then, my money is on Audi being the first to offer some level of serious response to Tesla in the premium segment in the next year and two. Not bypass Tesla, of course not, but at least first with a serious response.

Where are the prototypes? Where are the camo covered cars being tested in the desert and the arctic? The Jaguar E-Pace has no release date and no price yet but they are being seen everywhere. VAG is still years behind from producing a real, long range competitive product.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Thank you for a helpful post overall, @tescroft.

The AUDI CEO is in charge since 2007 and also responsible for the current situation with zero EVs on the market and stumbling with diesel cheating. A quote from that guy from 2016: "The diesel is one of the most attractive drive technologies we have {...} We will drive electrically, initially with hybrids, then with battery-electric vehicles and certainly once with hydrogen drive. The fossil fuel will gradually disappear from the big cities. However, we will still need the internal combustion engine for several years or decades.. ". This does not sound very convincing EV strategy to me, reads more like a traditional slow conversion strategy, which does not believe in BEVs as long distance travel cars.

I understand where you are coming from, I really do. I also understand where the Audi CEO is (was) coming from - and it is not all pretty at all. Your scepticism is warranted and I am not trying to turn your head on this at all. Just letting you know of how I feel.

For me, here's the thing: I think out of all the Germans, Audi was and is the best positioned to tackle the Tesla issue and they got a wake-up call apparently early enough to look like they are beating the other oldies in a serious large-battery BEV response as well as autonomous (latter they did not need a wake-up call in, they are ahead in that for other reasons).

So, here's how I see it. In my arm-chair analysis I am placing a wager that underneath all that talk, from all we can judge from the outside, Audi is now willing and able to execute on this. No matter what they say, no matter how much they will try to keep the ICE selling of course, they are now able to execute on this and are executing on this - and the inertia on the world and the market will IMO take care of the rest.

Others will follow, but IMO Audi will be the first to respond to Tesla in a serious way and they will benefit from it and that may even turn the course of the company, or at least result in a significant enough business in itself to offer the first serious response to Tesla on the market.

Which, for the purposes of this thread, is why I would save the ridicule of the BEV faithful to other Tesla competitors than Audi.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Where are the prototypes? Where are the camo covered cars being tested in the desert and the arctic? The Jaguar E-Pace has no release date and no price yet but they are being seen everywhere. VAG is still years behind from producing a real, long range competitive product.

Fair enough. I am on the record believing Audi e-tron quattro is on the market in 2018.

If they are not, clearly my beliefs were wrong.

 

[thegruf]

@AnxietyRanger - for heavens sake man give up with the "Audi are the only credible competitor" stuff. They're not. Period.

There's a ton of competitors coming, writing Jaguar off as only a compliance car is doing them a huge disservice.

Mercedes-Benz speeds up the launch timeline for 10 new electric vehicles
BMW is rumored to unveil an all-electric 3 Series in September to compete with Tesla’s Model 3
Volvo says its first all-electric vehicle is coming in 2019 with battery packs up to 100 kWh

how many more do you want?

I repeat that MB are on the agenda, have a battery plant in the making and frankly VAG Audi are a thoroughly disreputable manufacturer with nothing original to offer other than vaporware to date. Of the Germans MB are the most credible so far.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

In May there were some talk about the Audi plant in Hungary retooling for EV vehicles,

"Audit to start production of drivetrain for the new, all electric Q3 in 2 weeks.
According to the article, Audi has selected the site for production of key components for the VW group`s new EVs and they just finished a $350M investment of a 80,000 sqm new hall with over 700 robots dedicated to EVs. They also 'invested over $35M into training over 1000 professionals for production'"

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