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First quarter 2018 deliveries

How many cars will Tesla deliver to customers in the first quarter of 2018


  • Total voters
    108
  • Poll closed .

Reciprocity

Active Member
Feb 27, 2017
4,161
11,390
Chicagoland
12k each S/X.. we should start to see parity there for a while, then more X then S.
7K sounds about right for deliveries of model 3, but im going to say 11k for built with the assumption that the down time recently was to make the necessary adjustments and tooling for AWD and ramp to 2500+. They could have made some adjustments to get parts to the machines more efficiently since they mentioned the conveyance system as the other major bottleneck.
 

schonelucht

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2014
5,080
9,788
Nederland
7,000 Model 3's? o_O Is Tesla taking March off?

I know you are partially tongue in cheek here. But I think it merits a discussion.

At this point, I don't think a ramp (ie increase in production rate above 1000/wk) is happening. Two reasons. First VIN registrations (an early canary) are now less than 3000 above highest VINs assigned. If a ramp at levels near 2000/wk was really happening, I think we should have seen a quicker pace of VIN registration. Secondly, the first acceleration was supposed to be due to incrementally adding capacity to existing equipment used in a semi-automatic process for battery module assembly. From the description given around the conference call, this sounds like a more gradual process. Yet, for a full month since, we have seen no movement in pace from it. Somehow I think there was an unforeseen snag with the plan.

But, even if an acceleration was ongoing, I think it is too late to make a big impact. The mean time between 'invite to configure' and 'delivery' is somewhere between 21 and 25 days. We'd have to see a big wave of invites going out this week to have a chance of delivering a majority of them before the end of the quarter.
 
I know you are partially tongue in cheek here. But I think it merits a discussion.

"partially" tongue in cheek? My tongue is through my cheek! :)

At this point, I don't think a ramp (ie increase in production rate above 1000/wk) is happening. Two reasons. First VIN registrations (an early canary) are now less than 3000 above highest VINs assigned. If a ramp at levels near 2000/wk was really happening, I think we should have seen a quicker pace of VIN registration. Secondly, the first acceleration was supposed to be due to incrementally adding capacity to existing equipment used in a semi-automatic process for battery module assembly. From the description given around the conference call, this sounds like a more gradual process. Yet, for a full month since, we have seen no movement in pace from it. Somehow I think there was an unforeseen snag with the plan.

But, even if an acceleration was ongoing, I think it is too late to make a big impact. The mean time between 'invite to configure' and 'delivery' is somewhere between 21 and 25 days. We'd have to see a big wave of invites going out this week to have a chance of delivering a majority of them before the end of the quarter.

I agree with your VIN registration point, but I think we will see a big one soon, so that's a major assumption I am making. I also think Tesla will again prioritize CA deliveries in the last few weeks of the quarter, so config to delivery timeline will shrink. Finally, see this: One week into March, and already up to 10,000 units, with only 1,500 or so delivered through Dec 31. I think your number will prove conservative.
 
One week into March, and already up to 10,000 units, with only 1,500 or so delivered through Dec 31. I think your number will prove conservative.
VA, they had produced 2,600 by 12/31 last year, so this seems to be driving these lower estimates. Guess the question should be how many will have been produced by the end of the quarter. Delivery this quarter would, as I think you are saying, include those 800 or so that we’re in transit as of 12/31
 
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schonelucht

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2014
5,080
9,788
Nederland
Why project X lower than S?

Also, why project less than 25k combined S/X, the management guidance for annual 100k divided by four quarters?

X has never outsold S so I am keeping up with that tradition. Guiding lower than 25k because 1) historically low number of S/X in transit start of this year 2) efficiency gains to make up for losing 3rd shift will only be materialized over the year 3) historically low loaner&inventory fleet needs replenishing.
 
X has never outsold S so I am keeping up with that tradition. Guiding lower than 25k because 1) historically low number of S/X in transit start of this year 2) efficiency gains to make up for losing 3rd shift will only be materialized over the year 3) historically low loaner&inventory fleet needs replenishing.

Agreed mostly, except for S/X mix. There's a first time to everything. X market 2x of S, and S will see cannibalization from 3 until refresh.
 
@schonelucht will you adjust your 7,000 estimate upward based on this? It seems that you may have set the tone here by placing the bar so low, which played into anchoring bias. As a rule of thumb, I try not to influence the group by putting forth an estimate upfront when creating polls. Note that the majority voted less than 31,000, which seems surprisingly low given 25,000 run-rate S/X guidance and growing Model 3 production.
 
Last edited:
@schonelucht will you adjust your 7,000 estimate upward based on this? It seems that you may have set the tone here by placing the bar so low, which played into anchoring bias. As a rule of thumb, I try not to influence the group by putting forth an estimate upfront when creating polls. Note that the majority voted less than 31,000, which seems surprisingly low given 25,000 run-rate S/X guidance and growing Model 3 production.

Those new VIN's will not be produced in Q1. I think schonelucht nailed nailed the numbers on the first try. And I have to agree with AlMc's production assessment.
 
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