First quarter 2018 deliveries

[techmaven]

10,500 Model X? 10% less than 2017 quarterly average... with rolling 90-day search interest at record.

Primarily because this quarter is very backloaded, more so than most. And since I feel Model X has a lot of deliveries in further flung places (Norway and China) as well as potential significant congestion in CA at end of month that there is therefore a significant risk that they can't deliver what they hope out of what is in transit.

 

[EinSV]

. I like @EinSV and @Starno totals but @EinSV's S/X mix is way too skewed. I don't know how Tesla can deliver 14.6k S, seems too optimistic.

My S/X estimates are based primarily on VIN progression, which has been much higher for S than X based on spreadsheet data. S and X deliveries might be closer together than my WAG/guesstimates but since inventory of both was depleted at the end of Q4 the only way I can think of that they would be the same is if Tesla uses some of the Model S production to replenish the loaner pool. I think that’s unlikely, at least at levels that would equalize S and X deliveries.

 

[JRP3]

This poll’s consensus will have been grossly skewed due to anchoring bias from the first few posters who have previously proved overly conservative. Pollster should have been more careful... lost opportunity.

I placed my vote before reading the thread so your assumptions about poll skewing may not be accurate.

 

[SteveG3]

S 12,250
X 11,250
3 9,100

Total 32,600

 

[Thora]

S 15,000
X 9,000
3 8,500
Total 32,500

 

[Dwdnjck]

I was just assigned vin #111xx, which is being built now and possibly delivered to San Diego this quarter.

 

[secondstage]

10.000 Model 3
11.500 S
11.000 X

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I was just assigned vin #111xx, which is being built now and possibly delivered to San Diego this quarter.

@schonelucht Does this data point change your estimate of 7,000 Model 3 deliveries in 1Q18?

 

[schonelucht]

@schonelucht Does this data point change your estimate of 7,000 Model 3 deliveries in 1Q18?

Today, Tesla also assigned someone VIN 58xx. Does that datapoint change your estimate?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Today, Tesla also assigned someone VIN 58xx. Does that datapoint change your estimate?

Delivery date of this VIN was March 13, which means the assignment date of March 14 is a typo, so my answer to your question is no.

Thoughts on my question?

 

[RobStark]

Bloomberg tracker has Model 3 production passing 10k today. 10,004 actually.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Bloomberg tracker has Model 3 production passing 10k today. 10,004 actually.

I hope it is close to actual, but 10,000 by now would be assuming several times higher production rate following Feb 20-24 downtime.

We have not yet seen a flurry of invites, a surge in VIN assignments etc. Seems optimistic.

 

[RobStark]

I hope it is close to actual, but 10,000 by now would be assuming several times higher production rate following Feb 20-24 downtime.

We have not yet seen a flurry of invites, a surge in VIN assignments etc. Seems optimistic.

It is grand total. Not for the quarter.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It is grand total. Not for the quarter.

Yes; still seems optimistic at this point. The surge in VIN assignments that I had expected has not happened yet. Hopefully soon, but not yet.

 

[RobStark]

Yes; still seems optimistic at this point. The surge in VIN assignments that I had expected has not happened yet. Hopefully soon, but not yet.

If Tesla has manufactured 10k Model 3 as of today and delivered 1450 last quarter.......

You think they deliver 11k this quarter with ease?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If Tesla has manufactured 10k Model 3 as of today and delivered 1450 last quarter.......

You think they deliver 11k this quarter with ease?

I said above my 11k depends on an increased activity of VIN assignments and that I would revise it down if it wasn’t happening. I haven’t concluded it yet; too early in the quarter to know.

 

[RobStark]

too early in the quarter to know.

It is two weeks to go in the quarter.

 

[JRP3]

31st should be late enough.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It is two weeks to go in the quarter.

This isn’t just any quarter. They just made a major change to the line and tesla’s quarters are back-loaded. So we’ll see.

Having said that, we’re splitting hairs here. I’ll probably go down to 10,000, but definitely not down to 7,000.

 

[RobStark]

I still got 7500