First quarter 2018 deliveries

[luvb2b]

these estimates all seem extremely high to me.

using what i feel are very generous adjustments for back-end loading i struggle to reach 22k for s/x deliveries.

i don't have a reliable model for 3 deliveries at the moment. will work through that over the coming days.

 

[schonelucht]

Thoughts on my question?

I originally based my estimate on the excellent model in the Model 3 invites spreadsheet. At that time it was predicting 10 000 assigned VINS by the end of the quarter. Minus 1700 already delivered in earlier quarters, 500 for demo and internal purposes and then the same 800 in transit I estimated 7000. However that model is now creeping up and predicting nearly 11 000 by the end of the quarter. So if I were to predict today I would indeed go for 8000, not 7000. Using the same reasoning but starting from a higher base.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I originally based my estimate on the excellent model in the Model 3 invites spreadsheet. At that time it was predicting 10 000 assigned VINS by the end of the quarter. Minus 1700 already delivered in earlier quarters, 500 for demo and internal purposes and then the same 800 in transit I estimated 7000. However that model is now creeping up and predicting nearly 11 000 by the end of the quarter. So if I were to predict today I would indeed go for 8000, not 7000. Using the same reasoning but starting from a higher base.

Thank you for keeping me posted. The actual will likely end up somewhere between your and my initial estimates.

Having said that, I think by far the most important data point will be when Tesla plans to reach 5,000 weekly production rate.

 

[schonelucht]

these estimates all seem extremely high to me.

using what i feel are very generous adjustments for back-end loading i struggle to reach 22k for s/x deliveries.

i don't have a reliable model for 3 deliveries at the moment. will work through that over the coming days.

Any thoughts on gross margins you are projecting for this quarter?

 

[sundaymorning]

Any thoughts on gross margins you are projecting for this quarter?

I think the only thing that can save us from a violent downtrend are either going to be higher margins, better than expected S/X or TE sales. With two weeks left to go I doubt a last minute ramp with colorful language will do much for short term traders. 1-2 quarter’s from now all this won’t matter, but I’m seriously concerned with Tesla at this point in time.

 

[schonelucht]

This quarter Australia will add to the TE revenues, so I am certainly expecting an increase there by at least $50M. Also, it seems some of the costs were already booked for last quarter (I don't understand how that is kosjer but maybe they also booked corresponding revenue from transport charges) Solar couldn't possibly be any lower than last quarter and there are continued new powerwalls and packs installs. But will it really help gross margins? I doubt it.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This quarter Australia will add to the TE revenues, so I am certainly expecting an increase there by at least $50M. Also, it seems some of the costs were already booked for last quarter (I don't understand how that is kosjer but maybe they also booked corresponding revenue from transport charges) Solar couldn't possibly be any lower than last quarter and there are continued new powerwalls and packs installs. But will it really help gross margins? I doubt it.

Could you please expand on "it seems some of the costs were already booked for last quarter?"

Also, lack of new NHTSA's + no flurry of invites + no jump of new VIN assignments = no major ramp = miss for end-March goal of 2,500/w

****.

Revising to:
Model S 12,500
Model X 12,500
Model 3 10,000
Total 35,000

 

[schonelucht]

See the latest shareholder letter where they discuss energy segmen revenue and costs. They specifically call out booking transportation costs for Australian project as a reason for lower profits.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is anyone adjusting their S/X estimates due to the MCU issue?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

See the latest shareholder letter where they discuss energy segmen revenue and costs. They specifically call out booking transportation costs for Australian project as a reason for lower profits.

yea that's odd. I would have expected capitalized into inventory then expensed in COGS when revenue is recognized...

 

[schonelucht]

Is anyone adjusting their S/X estimates due to the MCU issue?

Do you mean because of buyers forgoing delivery of MCU1 cars and reordering or because of the hold on delivery due to the buggy MCU2s? I think neither wlll have a material impact.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Do you mean because of buyers forgoing delivery of MCU1 cars and reordering or because of the hold on delivery due to the buggy MCU2s? I think neither wlll have a material impact.

The latter. I wonder if even more S/X units than otherwise will be stuck in-transit because of this MCU issue.

 

[fataldeadlock]

I suspect that the real reason for the Model S/X backlog (June deliveries) is not due to orders alone, but a focus on ramp up to 5k Model 3's per week. I suspect they will push really hard to achieve the target Model 3 throughput a few weeks and then it will relax downward temporarily while they revert back to previous Model S/X production levels. Pure speculation here.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Looking at this for the first time I've taken a look at what VINs you can find on the web site. Low car numbers don't help but I've seen MX as low as about 80000 and as high as 91000 for 2018 cars that suggests no more than 11k built. MS is very different, lowest around 230000 and highest is 250000 which is 20k. Maybe the MS margin is better?

MX inventory also seem to be very few and far between.
Assumes vins are consecutive for the cars, and that most are sold.

But I'll go:

MX 10,500
MS 22,500
M3 - no idea, for fun 8k as I think they're still struggling

 

[Svetlin]

Looking at this for the first time I've taken a look at what VINs you can find on the web site. Low car numbers don't help but I've seen MX as low as about 80000 and as high as 91000 for 2018 cars that suggests no more than 11k built. MS is very different, lowest around 230000 and highest is 250000 which is 20k. Maybe the MS margin is better?

MX inventory also seem to be very few and far between.
Assumes vins are consecutive for the cars, and that most are sold.

But I'll go:

MX 10,500
MS 22,500
M3 - no idea, for fun 8k as I think they're still struggling

They don't have enough parts coming in from suppliers to make much more than about 50,000 Model S per year. Zero chance that they produced 20,000 Model S in Q1. If you change your Model S estimate to 12,500 from 22,500, I think you'd be pretty accurate at 31k total S3X deliveries for Q1.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

They don't have enough parts coming in from suppliers to make much more than about 50,000 Model S per year. Zero chance that they produced 20,000 Model S in Q1. If you change your Model S estimate to 12,500 from 22,500, I think you'd be pretty accurate at 31k total S3X deliveries for Q1.

They delivered the best part of 30k cars in Q4 17. I’m saying similar but split 2/3 MS, 1/3 MX

 

[Reciprocity]

They delivered the best part of 30k cars in Q4 17. I’m saying similar but split 2/3 MS, 1/3 MX

Yeah, that makes no sense..haha.. MS and MX have been getting closer and closer every quarter in terms of total volume. Total for S/X for the quarter has been an average of 25k per quarter for last year. 11,500 X and 13,000 S, I could see as the first quarter is usually the lightest. 8K for model 3 for the quarter is higher then I would go for deliveries but I could 7K delivered and as high as 10k manufactured with a big push next week to hit the 2500/w goal.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

They delivered the best part of 30k cars in Q4 17. I’m saying similar but split 2/3 MS, 1/3 MX

They liquidated thousands of units sitting in inventory in 4Q17, and the max build rate is limited to about 100k annual run-rate, so I wouldn’t expect much higher than 25,000/Q.

I think where you are underestimating, however, is the model 3 production rate. I think at least some of the bottlenecks seem to have been resolved.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I dont get how you can be so sure when there is a 20k+ spread in MS VIN numbers in quarter. We’lll soon know,

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I dont get how you can be so sure when there is a 20k+ spread in MS VIN numbers in quarter. We’lll soon know,

Source?