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First year depreciation number?

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by dweeks, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. dweeks

    dweeks Member

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    I've got a late 2014 Model S 85 with AP and tech package, and just over 13,000 miles. Multi-coat red, tan leather, standard sound, coils, dual chargers, LTE upgrade. Not at all a stripper but not completely loaded

    I'm moving to from Southern Arizona (no snow) to Flagstaff in Northern AZ, which can get lots of snow. I drive PHX-Flagstaf a lot, and I-17 north of the Verde Valley is steep and can get snow.

    The hill into the Flagstaff subdivision is long and a bit steep in parts. I am considering selling my 85 and getting an 85D for better snow driving.

    I've read the various threads complaining about how bad the first year's depreciation is, but I have not seen a real figure for the average depreciation amount.

    What do people think is a good number to assume for first year depreciation as I determine my asking price for a private sale?

    10%...15%...20%...?
     
  2. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    If you're worried about the snow, forget AWD, it's not necessary, get winter tires instead.

    If you still want to upgrade, the depreciation will be steep, expect 20-30% (I just bought my car one year old, with only 11,000km on it as a Tesla inventory car with over 20% discount, expect more if you have any normal amount of mileage on it)

    That said, those 30% plus numbers are common for this class of car, the first year is always the worst.
     
  3. Blue_Model_S

    Blue_Model_S Member

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  4. Xenoilphobe

    Xenoilphobe Active Member

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    Snow tires will work great on this car - its really heavy and well planted - just make sure you raise the suspension to the highest setting.
     
  5. dweeks

    dweeks Member

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    Opinions on best snow tires? I read here that lots of people like Hakka (something) snow tires but I'm not familiar with them.

    Do people buy another four wheels ($$) as well as another four snow tires, or have a tire shop swap the tires twice a year?
     
  6. RedSoxFan18

    RedSoxFan18 Member

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    Different opinion here - in a heavy snow environment I see large advantages to AWD over RWD even with snows. In fact the reason I'm buying an 85D is that I've given up trying to drive my RWD BMW in the snow. I also have a AWD BMW and it never struggles in snow. As far as snow tires go I'm a big fan of Blizzaks. Many tire shops will swap summer and winter tires free of charge when you buy the tires from them.
     
  7. OlderThanDirt

    OlderThanDirt Member

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    The Nokian's have a great reputation. We ran the Michelin X-ICE for three winter winters on a Volt and were very impressed. They made that car into a tank. Two of those winters were extreme even for us. Winter tires are worth every penny you spend on them.

    I went with a complete wheel and tire package from Tire Rack. Check out the link and give them a call. Their customer service has always been great for me. http://www.tirerack.com/snow/WinterPackageMain.jsp?autoMake=Tesla&autoModel=Model+S&autoYear=2014&autoModClar=85

    Taking delivery of our Model S in spring but come fall we will install winter tires and wheel package from Tire Rack.

    Another plus for winter tires........People tend to tailgate you less. They kick up some serious spray when the roads are nasty :smile:
     
  8. Xenoilphobe

    Xenoilphobe Active Member

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    Also turn off traction control - this helps as well.. (I don't know why -but it works great)
     
  9. Blue_Model_S

    Blue_Model_S Member

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    Just tires mounted on existing wheels. Incidentally, the usual term is winter tires, but many also refer to them as snow tires.

    From Best Family Car Tires - Consumer Reports

    "The Michelin X-Ice XI3 and Nokian Hakkapeliitta R2 are top rated, but the Bridgestone Blizzak WS80 is a strong performer that offers excellent winter traction."
     
  10. OlderThanDirt

    OlderThanDirt Member

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    There's really no right or wrong way end up with winter tires just what works best for you. They are like insurance or extended warranties. What is the end value to you? One of my thoughts were if they saved me from one bend-em up:mad:. Then they paid for themselves. Mine saved me from a head on collision because I could still control my car. The other car was totally out of control.
     
  11. dweeks

    dweeks Member

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    All, thanks for the tips on snow tires. That will factor into my decision.

    But I am still interested in opinions on first year depreciation. I've spent quite a bit of time on the ev-cpo web site looking for 2014 S85s comparable to mine (multi-coat paint, dual chargers, Autopilot, 13K miles) and there are a few.

    Would it be reasonable to think that I could get a similar price to what Tesla is asking for in a CPO car? In other words, if a buyer was willing to pay Tesla 70K for such a car, would it be out of line for me to ask that much?
     
  12. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    In a word, no. Tesla provides a new warranty on their vehicles, resets the clock on the cellular plan, new slacker trial, etc. You can't compete with that. Someone choosing between yours and an identical CPO will almost always choose the CPO. As such yours needs to be cheaper.
     
  13. 2krazykats

    2krazykats Member

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  14. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    And a tracked vehicle is even better, but what level is good enough? I know winter pretty well, I've had 4wd vehicles, I've had fwd, and rwd. Writer tires is important, AWD is simply not.
    On a side note, I see more all wheel drive and 4 wheel drive vehicles in the ditch in winter than I do 2wd. It gives more confidence without the matching ability.
     
  15. 2krazykats

    2krazykats Member

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    You could consider trading in the car to Tesla when you get you 85D but no, you wouldn't be able to ask in the private market as much as Tesla is asking because of their warranty reset unless you bought the extended warranty in which case, I think you might be able to ask for as much as Tesla because CPO cars can't buy an extended warranty but they can be transferred with the car.

    that being said, you never know what someone might pay until you put it out there...

    - - - Updated - - -

    I don't know the kind of winters you have in Alberta so I can only describe my experience with our winters in CO which tend to be milder than the NE and MW US and even then, from a starting position, if there is ice underneath the snow on a small incline on our street, any RWD and FWD has had a problem getting traction going up. In several cases I've had to go downhill on our street as an alternative route to get out! Once I have momentum, the cars are generally fine. My AWD vehicle, however has not failed to get me out of my street going uphill.
     
  16. dweeks

    dweeks Member

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    Hmmm, I did not think about the Slacker thing.

    Doesn't the original car warranty transfer with its sale?
     
  17. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    Yes, but there is a registration cost, and only the remaining part transfers.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If you need awd to get going, you either aren't buying good enough tires, aren't driving well, or are in serious trouble when it comes time to stop or turn.
    Awd has a very tiny advantage in getting going from a stop, an even smaller advantage in turning, and a disadvantage in stopping (the most important of the three)

    And if you want to claim that I just don't know "real" winter, i don't know what you say, we get winter, we get lots of it. And I frequently drive to areas that get even more. For entertainment watch the TV show "highway through hell" filmed on roads I drive frequently.
     
  18. 2krazykats

    2krazykats Member

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    I have no idea where you got the impression that I said you don't know a real winter. My point was that our winters are even less brutal than other areas and my experience with the different drive trains were all I was relaying. So you can disparage my driving or tires or whatever if that makes you feel better, it doesn't make one bit of difference to me in what I think.
     
  19. rcarpen22

    rcarpen22 Member

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    One thing that nobody is considering here is whether or not the OP is lazy. I personally am too lazy to swap wheels for seasons. With awd, you get excellent performance in snow without having to do anything:)
     
  20. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    Actually you don't, you risk your life every time you drive in snow.
    AWD has no positive effect on braking at all. All season tires are not for any location that gets temperatures that approach freezing.
    Winter tires have way more effect than AWD on ability to drive in snow, on ice, or even on dry (but cold) pavement.
     

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