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Flat vs Peak/Off usage cost

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My electricity provider sent me the below explanation for flat vs peak/off peak service plans.

I thought before I’d be moving to a peak/off peak plan, but after reviewing this below I think the flat rate is probably better. My wife and I both work from home. We do not reduce demand during the day. The AC runs nonstop during the summer.

This isn’t even back of napkin analysis. This is just my speculation that flat pricing is best based on pretty consistent usage.

I goofed up the quote system. Pardon
Residential Service Rate Schedule...

NET MONTHLY BILL
A. Customer Charge $10.00 per month
B. Energy Charge
All kWh Used $0.06971 per kWh*
Except that in the Billing Months of November through April, all kWh used in
excess of 1,000 kWh will be billed at $0.05188 per kWh*.
*Plus the Fixed Fuel Factor per Schedule FF and all applicable riders.

as well as the Time of Day Rate Schedulewhich you can change to instead

NET MONTHLY BILL
A. Customer Charge $10.00 per month
B. Energy Charge
Billing Months of
May - October and November - April
All On-peak kWh Used: $0.16127 per kWh (May - Oct) * and $0.10600 per kWh* (Nov - Apr)
All Off-peak kWh Used: $0.02764 per kWh (May - Oct) * and $0.02764 per kWh* (Nov - Apr)
*Plus the Fixed Fuel Factor per Schedule FF and all applicable riders.
C. Minimum Charge
Minimum Monthly Charge will be the Customer Charge.III. ON-PEAK HOURS AND OFF-PEAK HOURS

Summer: On-peak hours, for purposes of this schedule, are 1:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Monday through Friday, except that Memorial Day, Labor Day and Independence Day
(July 4 or nearest weekday if July 4 is on a weekend) are not on-peak.
Winter: On-peak hours, for purposes of this schedule, are 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. and
6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. Monday through Friday, except that Thanksgiving Day, Christmas
Day and New Year's Day (or the nearest weekday if the holiday should fall on a
weekend) are not on-peak.
Off-peak hours, for purposes of this schedule, are all hours of the year not specified as
on-peak hours. Company at its sole discretion can change the on-peak hours and
season from time to time.
 
I went through this decision last year when I got solar. I ended up doing flat rate for the first year and tracking my usage during peak times. I can do that with the Tesla app but if you have a smart meter you can check. I have a newer house and my A/C unit runs at about 2.2 kw when it cycles on and off (actual KWh varying of course), but heat is only about 500 watts + natural gas when it cycles. My water heater, stove, and dryer are gas as well, but maybe you have more electric appliances.

After running the numbers I just adopted a time of use plan a month ago, based not on A/C usage (Michigan only needs A/C in 3-4 months a year), but based on winter power consumption. In winter you're not using nearly as much electrical power during the day if you have natural gas heat, and the majority of power is coming from your Tesla due to higher energy needs in winter.

I would look at your meter, if you have a smart meter, and try to figure out how much power each appliance/HVAC uses and make a projection of what your consumption is going to be. If you have natural gas remember that is always going to be flat rate. For electric you can charge off peak, do the dishwasher off peak, etc

It's basically HVAC energy consumption vs everything else. Almost everything else can be load shifted to some extent (run dishwasher overnight etc).
 
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