So after literally a year of fighting Tesla on this and methodically gathering data that shows there is a clear difference between my 2017Q3 Model S (MCU1/HW2.5) and my 2018Q3 model 3 (MCU2/HW2.5), they finally determined that the difference is absolutely there but that the Model S is functioning as designed because they were able to reproduce it on another Model S of similar vintage and hardware configuration.
I intend to fight this through arbitration, but we have here confirmation that yes, there is truly a difference in Autopilot performance between these different generations. I'm not sure if it has to do with GPS accuracy or what, but Tesla has admitted that the older cars have buggy Fleet Speed "by design".
If anybody has tips for me on how to handle the arbitration I'd appreciate it.