Fool Article shows foolish numbers?

[fjm9898]

this article just came out
Left and Right Handed Investing - ISRG, NFLX, TSLA - Foolish Blogging Network


Here is the bit on Tesla

Tesla speeds ahead
One of the most popular growth stories today is Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA). With just one quarter of positive earnings – $0.10 in Q1 2013 - after three years of losses, Tesla has seen it share price race from a 52-week low of $25 to a high of $133. Tesla has a negative PE.
Interestingly Tesla’s policy is to not report comprehensive vehicle sales numbers claiming investors are able to forecast success based on general sales figures. That leaves a lot of latitude on how many actual units of the Model X and Model S it sold and will keep investors glued to the numbers. This stock is a growth/momentum investor’s dream come true.
Revenue in the fourth quarter last year, was up 500% to $306 million and it delivered around 2,400 Model S cars in the quarter and 2,650 for the year. It’s clear the fourth quarter was validation of Tesla’s potential. The first quarter of this year was a continuation of the positive roll, with Tesla making its first profit ever, and the stock price hitting all time highs.
Industry analysts estimate first quarter sales were 4,750 Model S units and it looks like the company is on track to sell 4,500 units per quarter. As with all growth stories, bad news hits hard and Tesla dropped almost 18% when it looked like second quarter sales were slowing and came in at 4,181 units. Therefore, Tesla is still a value investor's worst nightmare.

Here is the bit that seems way off....

Industry analysts estimate first quarter sales were 4,750 Model S units and it looks like the company is on track to sell 4,500 units per quarter. As with all growth stories, bad news hits hard and Tesla dropped almost 18% when it looked like second quarter sales were slowing and came in at 4,181 units. Therefore, Tesla is still a value investor's worst nightmare.

Since when were there any numbers showing Q2 at 4,181 units? Where is he getting that number???

 

[gvillager]

Since when were there any numbers showing Q2 at 4,181 units? Where is he getting that number???

http://blogs.motortrend.com/lessons...s-longer-to-recharge-29699.html#axzz2ZodYbin1

The second quarter, which ends with June sales, was not as successful. In June, Tesla sold 1,425 vehicles and ended the first half of the year with 8931 units sold, according to Autodata Corp. That’s 4181 units for the second quarter, which is 569 units off the first quarter mark and 319 units off Tesla’s 4500 units a quarter mark.

Read more: http://blogs.motortrend.com/lessons...s-longer-to-recharge-29699.html#ixzz2Zoe6gHND
Follow us: @MotorTrend on Twitter | MotortrendMag on Facebook

 

[fjm9898]

So at the VIN counting wrong by our Bulls on this site? People are predicting 5,000+ but yet this article 2 weeks ago already is putting the nail in the coffin at 4,181 and continues that Tesla is going to miss there 21,000 mark by 3,000 with only a total of 18,000 for the year. This seems like very contradicting information to what most people has said on this forum.

In this article its hard to tell if they are putting that 4,181 number on US only sales or world wide, does quote it as Autodata Corp info.
They say this - "(Though after that first quarter, Tesla upped its projections to 21,000 units by the end of the year, but that’s a worldwide projection, not strictly U.S. sales.)"

But then say this - "I think Tesla sales will level out and sell 17,824 units for the year"

Coming up with that number using the 4,181 sold this quarter figure as the base for the 17,824 total sales, short of the 21,000

sorry i am just confused on what is really going on for Tesla's Q2 production.
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[MikeC]

So at the VIN counting wrong by our Bulls on this site? People are predicting 5,000+ but yet this article 2 weeks ago already is putting the nail in the coffin at 4,181 and continues that Tesla is going to miss there 21,000 mark by 3,000 with only a total of 18,000 for the year. This seems like very contradicting information to what most people has said on this forum.

In this article its hard to tell if they are putting that 4,181 number on US only sales or world wide, does quote it as Autodata Corp info.
They say this - "(Though after that first quarter, Tesla upped its projections to 21,000 units by the end of the year, but that’s a worldwide projection, not strictly U.S. sales.)"

But then say this - "I think Tesla sales will level out and sell 17,824 units for the year"

Coming up with that number using the 4,181 sold this quarter figure as the base for the 17,824 total sales, short of the 21,000

sorry i am just confused on what is really going on for Tesla's Q2 production.
​

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The Autodata numbers are an estimate because Tesla does not release monthly car sale data. We here at TMC have a slightly higher estimate (...but shhhh, don't tell the shorts). We will see who is more accurate on August 7th.

 

[ppl]

So at the VIN counting wrong by our Bulls on this site? People are predicting 5,000+ but yet this article 2 weeks ago already is putting the nail in the coffin at 4,181 and continues that Tesla is going to miss there 21,000 mark by 3,000 with only a total of 18,000 for the year. This seems like very contradicting information to what most people has said on this forum.

In this article its hard to tell if they are putting that 4,181 number on US only sales or world wide, does quote it as Autodata Corp info.
They say this - "(Though after that first quarter, Tesla upped its projections to 21,000 units by the end of the year, but that’s a worldwide projection, not strictly U.S. sales.)"

But then say this - "I think Tesla sales will level out and sell 17,824 units for the year"

Coming up with that number using the 4,181 sold this quarter figure as the base for the 17,824 total sales, short of the 21,000

sorry i am just confused on what is really going on for Tesla's Q2 production.
​

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A valuable lesson don't believe everything that is published. Seeing it published gives it the appearance of authority but really need to be critical

 

[fjm9898]

i figured those numbers had to be down right wrong. I didt see how Tesla could raise to 21,000 for the year, then have 500 a week production, yet only put out 4.181

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Trace that number to the source. The way Autodata works is they estimate vehicle sales each month by tapping into registration data provided by state DMVs. Not all states provide data and it's not all consistently reported or well formatted. Newer vehicles often aren't accounted for at all until they show up as correct entries in DMV databases.

Even if (and it's a huge IF) Autodata had good numbers for the Model S, it would a measure of US sales only. Canadian sales obviously won't be captured by taking a poll on US DMV registrations.

It's just an all around terrible source. Fine for existing car lines that sell 20,000+ units a month and a +/- 1,000 car margin of error amounts to a small percentage. For the Model S, Autodata is completely unreliable. But by all means - if people want to go and short TSLA based on it, the more the merrier! I'm happy to take their money come August 7.