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Fool Article shows foolish numbers?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by fjm9898, Jul 22, 2013.

  1. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    this article just came out
    Left and Right Handed Investing - ISRG, NFLX, TSLA - Foolish Blogging Network


    Here is the bit on Tesla
    Here is the bit that seems way off....
    Since when were there any numbers showing Q2 at 4,181 units? Where is he getting that number???
     
  2. gvillager

    gvillager Member

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    http://blogs.motortrend.com/lessons-learned-from-june2013-auto-sales-tesla-takes-longer-to-recharge-29699.html#axzz2ZodYbin1

     
  3. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    #3 fjm9898, Jul 22, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
    So at the VIN counting wrong by our Bulls on this site? People are predicting 5,000+ but yet this article 2 weeks ago already is putting the nail in the coffin at 4,181 and continues that Tesla is going to miss there 21,000 mark by 3,000 with only a total of 18,000 for the year. This seems like very contradicting information to what most people has said on this forum.

    In this article its hard to tell if they are putting that 4,181 number on US only sales or world wide, does quote it as Autodata Corp info.
    They say this - "(Though after that first quarter, Tesla upped its projections to 21,000 units by the end of the year, but that’s a worldwide projection, not strictly U.S. sales.)"

    But then say this - "I think Tesla sales will level out and sell 17,824 units for the year"
    Coming up with that number using the 4,181 sold this quarter figure as the base for the 17,824 total sales, short of the 21,000

    sorry i am just confused on what is really going on for Tesla's Q2 production.
     
  4. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    The Autodata numbers are an estimate because Tesla does not release monthly car sale data. We here at TMC have a slightly higher estimate (...but shhhh, don't tell the shorts). We will see who is more accurate on August 7th.
     
  5. ppl

    ppl Member

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    A valuable lesson don't believe everything that is published. Seeing it published gives it the appearance of authority but really need to be critical
     
  6. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    i figured those numbers had to be down right wrong. I didt see how Tesla could raise to 21,000 for the year, then have 500 a week production, yet only put out 4.181
     
  7. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    Trace that number to the source. The way Autodata works is they estimate vehicle sales each month by tapping into registration data provided by state DMVs. Not all states provide data and it's not all consistently reported or well formatted. Newer vehicles often aren't accounted for at all until they show up as correct entries in DMV databases.

    Even if (and it's a huge IF) Autodata had good numbers for the Model S, it would a measure of US sales only. Canadian sales obviously won't be captured by taking a poll on US DMV registrations.

    It's just an all around terrible source. Fine for existing car lines that sell 20,000+ units a month and a +/- 1,000 car margin of error amounts to a small percentage. For the Model S, Autodata is completely unreliable. But by all means - if people want to go and short TSLA based on it, the more the merrier! I'm happy to take their money come August 7.
     

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