For those who are a little hesitant to pull the trigger, what are some of your concerns?

[internalaudit]

I think most of us can come to agreement that if any Tesla vehicle will last us 10 years of use, with minimal maintenance cost and repair, no one would be apprehensive to jump in.

I can't write a check for one but if I liquidate some securities, I can, but only if the car is going to last for a long time because the reasons I want to adopt a BEV are lower overall transportation (cheaper to charge than to fuel up) and maintenance cost and for me the bonus would be decent handling/dynamics.

I think even for other makes (Euro/Korean/Japanese), BEVs will proved to be more reliable than their ICEV counterparts. Most of the complaints I read about the 2 Series are related to the engine so remove that and the complicated transmission from the equation and BMW BEVs will definitely cost less to maintain compared to their ICEV variants.


I think the only wants who can speak authoritatively to TCO are the ones still driving their roadsters or S'es who warranties have long expired.

Anyone else who talks about their Tesla vehicles and how reliable they are while within the warranty or ESA period is not doing anyone a lot of justice especially if their vehicles had gone in for countless repairs.

 

[voip-ninja]

I think most of us can come to agreement that if any Tesla vehicle will last us 10 years of use, with minimal maintenance cost and repair, no one would be apprehensive to jump in.

I can't write a check for one but if I liquidate some securities, I can, but only if the car is going to last for a long time because the reasons I want to adopt a BEV are lower overall transportation (cheaper to charge than to fuel up) and maintenance cost and for me the bonus would be decent handling/dynamics.

I think even for other makes (Euro/Korean/Japanese), BEVs will proved to be more reliable than their ICEV counterparts. Most of the complaints I read about the 2 Series are related to the engine so remove that and the complicated transmission from the equation and BMW BEVs will definitely cost less to maintain compared to their ICEV variants.


I think the only wants who can speak authoritatively to TCO are the ones still driving their roadsters or S'es who warranties have long expired.

Anyone else who talks about their Tesla vehicles and how reliable they are while within the warranty or ESA period is not doing anyone a lot of justice especially if their vehicles had gone in for countless repairs.

I actually don't agree with this. The typical buyer of a cutting edge technology product like this probably changes their vehicle out more often than every 10 years.

I will agree that 10 years of ownership with relatively low TCO is something anyone should expect from a modern automobile.

Tesla is simply to new to know what the long term costs of ownership will be, which is one reason I have zero plans to keep one for 10 years.

 

[Rockster]

"I'm worried about Tesla going bankrupt so I'm not going to buy a Model 3." [Drives away in a GMC vehicle...]

 

[AceSkywalker]

In descending order (and this is from someone who is okay to buy cars new but plans to keep them until TCO -- total cost of ownership -- becomes absurdly expensive, which haven't happened to any of my ICEV Honda's and Toyota):

1. Whether Tesla Service Centers (including the company) will be around after eight years --> I have not read about any reassurances that the company will become profitable and will be cash flow positive. I think the company is chasing too many projects and won't focus on the most important tasks on hand.
2. No progress on the Right to Repair front that was brought up in Feb 2017 and which likely means high TCO: Tesla President of Sales and Service Says Program To Allow Owners To Perform Own Repairs Is "In The Works"
3. Inferior battery and drive unit warranty compared to the S and X; ESA details still unknown
4. Expensive PUP option (most expensive purchase has been a RAV4H but I'm willing to pay more if the car is going to be reliable post-ESA) but likely a good option to have with multiple drivers
5. Expensive EAP option when I only really want/need is TACC
6. Single tablet interface for a household with three drivers

Heck, I don't even mind purchasing 4 and 5 if I can get some assurance that Tesla will thrive and if cost of repairs down the road will go down because of increasing economic scale and improving efficiencies and lessons learned. But I will likely only opt for SR, AWD and maybe EAP because I'm not used to spending too much on a vehicle, especially if I cannot amortize the cost to more than a decade.

Would like to know of any reasons why you are hesitating to put in an order. Thanks!

#2 is a nonstarter. Unqualified people without months of training should be handling and attempting to repair electric cars with high voltages. Heck I could even make the argument for ICE cars beyond routine consumables like oil, filters, and maybe spark plugs.

Companies have a vested interested in opposing right to repair fronts to protect their consumers and themselves. Some idiot will bring their car, or their piece of electronics to a non-authorized and non-certified repair center which will probably do a foul job and make the problem worse. Then the consumer turns around and whines to the OEM. Anyone who does that kinda of stuff to their phone or car should be blacklisted from OEM service.

Fine if you want to DIY or third party repair your products to save a buck. Just don't go crying to the OEM.

 

[F_T_K]

I'm just waiting for the all-wheel-drive and air suspension options. Then, I jump at the chance to buy my Model 3.

 

[T34ME]

Also I think You have absolutely no idea how awesome a HUB is.

I have an idea how not awesome a HUD (Heads Up Display) is! I have a car for 5 years with a HUD and a center instrument display. I used the HUD for the first week because it was a fun toy. After that it became a nuisance and distraction. I NEVER use the HUD now. Tesla can put a HUD in or not, it makes no difference to me but I would not use it and talking to people who have one, they rarely use it after the novelty wears off. HUD is a fad that people will soon get tired of. But sure, let Tesla put one on the model 3 and charge $1,000 for it as an option and let the consumer decide.

 

[internalaudit]

#2 is a nonstarter. Unqualified people without months of training should be handling and attempting to repair electric cars with high voltages. Heck I could even make the argument for ICE cars beyond routine consumables like oil, filters, and maybe spark plugs.

Companies have a vested interested in opposing right to repair fronts to protect their consumers and themselves. Some idiot will bring their car, or their piece of electronics to a non-authorized and non-certified repair center which will probably do a foul job and make the problem worse. Then the consumer turns around and whines to the OEM. Anyone who does that kinda of stuff to their phone or car should be blacklisted from OEM service.

Fine if you want to DIY or third party repair your products to save a buck. Just don't go crying to the OEM.

Post-warranty/ESA, it doesn't really matter what the vehicle owner does with their cars. It's likely not going to be a liability to Tesla unless it's a safety recall but that would only cover things related to the manufacturing defect and not damaged caused by DIY.

 

[brkaus]

My primary concern is AWD availability this year.

THIS is the winner!

But also, I purchased an S while I was waiting. Do want to replace the second car once AWD is available.

My fuel cost went from $2800/yr (20k miles) to $360 ($30 * 12). Still doesn't make up for the payments, but much more fun to drive.

 

[internalaudit]

I actually don't agree with this. The typical buyer of a cutting edge technology product like this probably changes their vehicle out more often than every 10 years.

I will agree that 10 years of ownership with relatively low TCO is something anyone should expect from a modern automobile.

Tesla is simply to new to know what the long term costs of ownership will be, which is one reason I have zero plans to keep one for 10 years.

What cutting edge technology are we talking about in BEVs when even the Tesla M3 can easily do 200+ miles between charging?

Are you talking about AP, wherein the Model X rammed into the barricade in March?

I would like to know what technology you want in 2022, 2026 and 2030 as I may want to wait it out until then.

Since electronic stability control and maybe ACC, I have not really figured out new technology that appeals to me so much that I have to throw away a good vehicle that's almost fully depreciated.

Of course if my Civic dies, I'm going to buy a replacement vehicle with good safety technology, if not for me, for my teen-aged daughter.

 

[voip-ninja]

What cutting edge technology are we talking about in BEVs when even the Tesla M3 can easily do 200+ miles between charging?

Are you talking about AP, wherein the Model X rammed into the barricade in March?

I would like to know what technology you want in 2022, 2026 and 2030 as I may want to wait it out until then.

Since electronic stability control and maybe ACC, I have not really figured out new technology that appeals to me so much that I have to throw away a good vehicle that's almost fully depreciated.

Of course if my Civic dies, I'm going to buy a replacement vehicle with good safety technology, if not for me, for my teen-aged daughter.

Oh my gosh, let me count the ways.

As a starting point, let's look at the 2018 version of the car I was driving in 2008, Audi A4. What's changed on that car over the past 10 years;

1. a. 2018 A4 has a glass cockpit with digital gauge cluster, full media integration, Carplay, BT audio for calls, LTE radio for wireless data, hands free entry and trunk opening and keyless starting.
b. 2008 Audi A4 had no Bluetooth for phone calls. It had an in dash AM/FM CD player with no multimedia capabilities at all. Manual starting, no keyless entry, etc.
2. a. 2018 A4 has mixed economy of about 28 mpg. It has a 7 speed dual clutch s-tronic transmission and goes 0-60 in about 5.5 seconds.
b. 2008 A4 had mixed fuel economy of about 25 mpg. 50 (yes 50) fewer horsepower. 6 speed manual transmission. 0-60 in about 6.8 seconds.
3. a. 2018 A4 has airbags not only for the front occupants, it has side curtain airbags for the front and rear passengers and knee airbags. 2018 A4 has better crash safety ratings, superior crash survivability in almost all situations.
b. 2008 A4 had front driver and passenger airbags.
4. 2018 A4 has better legroom, better hiproom, better headroom for all four passengers.
5. etc.
6. etc.

Both cars get you from point A to point B and are fun to drive and are similarly sized. That's pretty much where the similarities end.

If I was to speculate on what changes we will see in 10 years for cars like Model 3;

1. Far superior self driving AP systems at a much lower cost than the current $8,000 premium (with FSD not even being available yet).
2. Better range at a lower price.
3. Better battery performance in cold temperatures.
4. Faster charging (5 minute DC charge).
5. Battery technology that performs at roughly 80% of the "when new" performance for the 20 year life of the vehicle.
6. Dramatically upgraded safety systems that improve crash survivability.
7. Dramatically upgraded convenience features.... remote self park and summon that completely work even in tight garages, advanced wireless connectivity that doesn't exist today, on-board (not network dependent) artificial intelligence for navigation and spoken word requests.
8. competitors that don't even exist today, will be everywhere 10 years from now. BMW, Mercedes, Audi/Volkswagen Group (VAG), GM, Toyota, Honda.... they will all have some form of competitive product in 10 years, today they have none.

The list goes on and on and on.

Now, does any of that matter for someone who just wants the car to have the lowest TCO over a 10 year period of time? Probably not. Does matter to me and millions of others though.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Waiting for AWD P version

 

[internalaudit]

Biggest concern is going to be addressed!

Tesla CEO Musk Boldly Claims Automaker Will Be Profitable In Q3 2018
Tesla CEO Musk Boldly Claims Automaker Will Be Profitable In Q3 2018

 

[internalaudit]

Oh my gosh, let me count the ways.

As a starting point, let's look at the 2018 version of the car I was driving in 2008, Audi A4. What's changed on that car over the past 10 years;

1. a. 2018 A4 has a glass cockpit with digital gauge cluster, full media integration, Carplay, BT audio for calls, LTE radio for wireless data, hands free entry and trunk opening and keyless starting.
b. 2008 Audi A4 had no Bluetooth for phone calls. It had an in dash AM/FM CD player with no multimedia capabilities at all. Manual starting, no keyless entry, etc.
2. a. 2018 A4 has mixed economy of about 28 mpg. It has a 7 speed dual clutch s-tronic transmission and goes 0-60 in about 5.5 seconds.
b. 2008 A4 had mixed fuel economy of about 25 mpg. 50 (yes 50) fewer horsepower. 6 speed manual transmission. 0-60 in about 6.8 seconds.
3. a. 2018 A4 has airbags not only for the front occupants, it has side curtain airbags for the front and rear passengers and knee airbags. 2018 A4 has better crash safety ratings, superior crash survivability in almost all situations.
b. 2008 A4 had front driver and passenger airbags.
4. 2018 A4 has better legroom, better hiproom, better headroom for all four passengers.
5. etc.
6. etc.

Both cars get you from point A to point B and are fun to drive and are similarly sized. That's pretty much where the similarities end.

If I was to speculate on what changes we will see in 10 years for cars like Model 3;

1. Far superior self driving AP systems at a much lower cost than the current $8,000 premium (with FSD not even being available yet).
2. Better range at a lower price.
3. Better battery performance in cold temperatures.
4. Faster charging (5 minute DC charge).
5. Battery technology that performs at roughly 80% of the "when new" performance for the 20 year life of the vehicle.
6. Dramatically upgraded safety systems that improve crash survivability.
7. Dramatically upgraded convenience features.... remote self park and summon that completely work even in tight garages, advanced wireless connectivity that doesn't exist today, on-board (not network dependent) artificial intelligence for navigation and spoken word requests.
8. competitors that don't even exist today, will be everywhere 10 years from now. BMW, Mercedes, Audi/Volkswagen Group (VAG), GM, Toyota, Honda.... they will all have some form of competitive product in 10 years, today they have none.

The list goes on and on and on.

Now, does any of that matter for someone who just wants the car to have the lowest TCO over a 10 year period of time? Probably not. Does matter to me and millions of others though.

wow, those are very incremental improvements and not awe striking in any way. Majority aesthetics and presentation, some improved fuel economy and some additional air bags for those who are busy chatting on the phone and not concentrating on the road or motorists around them.

not impressed at all with the second list since I'm buying a BEV that covers 90% of my driving needs and will not worry about quick charging and battery advancement until the chemistry no longer consists of lithium and cobalt but with much cheaper alternative battery elements that will drive prices down to parity with ICEV variants.

Hey, if you want to spend your $150k salary on a new car every few years, I'm happy for you. I'd rather have my money work hard for me than for EM every three or four years.

I know your mindset. My brother, now living overseas, is exactly like that. He buys a lot of fancy cars and definitely makes a lot more than $150k. And cars where he lives is not really inexpensive with duties and all.

 

[voip-ninja]

wow, those are very incremental improvements and not awe striking in any way. Majority aesthetics and presentation, some improved fuel economy and some additional air bags for those who are busy chatting on the phone and not concentrating on the road or motorists around them.

not impressed at all with the second list since I'm buying a BEV that covers 90% of my driving needs and will not worry about quick charging and battery advancement until the chemistry no longer consists of lithium and cobalt but with much cheaper alternative battery elements that will drive prices down to parity with ICEV variants.

Hey, if you want to spend your $150k salary on a new car every few years, I'm happy for you. I'd rather have my money work hard for me than for EM every three or four years.

I know your mindset. My brother, now living overseas, is exactly like that. He buys a lot of fancy cars and definitely makes a lot more than $150k. And cars where he lives is not really inexpensive with duties and all.

You don't know my "mindset" because you don't know anything about me really.

My wife and I are both high income professionals and my rule is no more than 10% of gross income goes to cars. Most of the time it's more like 5%. Keep in mind that high earners can also spend more on something disposable like a car because things like mortgage, groceries, utilities, etc., are a much smaller percentage of their annual income.

I'm really not sure where your snark is coming from. You now want to talk about finances and what people can afford? I rebutted someone else who commented that your posts were coming from the angle of not really being able to afford the Model 3. Well, I was wrong because that does appear to be the case. You can't afford it without feeling uncomfortable about the outlay and you want others to validate your concerns.

I gave you legitimate reasons that people upgrade their cars more frequently than every 10 years and you were very dismissive of them. Average car buyer keeps a car about 4.5 years.

Since you seem to want to dive down this "I'm super financially responsible" rabbit hole..... the smartest thing you can do from a financial perspective is buy a 3 year old Honda Civic that is still under warranty and has low miles. Then drive it till it doesn't work any more.

 

[gearchruncher]

#2 is a nonstarter. Unqualified people without months of training should be handling and attempting to repair electric cars with high voltages. Heck I could even make the argument for ICE cars beyond routine consumables like oil, filters, and maybe spark plugs.

Right to repair is not just about a DIY doing a repair. It's about the right for other independent companies to have the data to do a repair. You can't have professional, independent shops that can repair a car without the manufacturer providing data. Without that, the OEM's can charge whatever they want. So you're OK with Tesla realizing that there's no competition to their service centers, and setting non-warranty work at $250 an hour?

But, your general argument seems to be that all auto parts stores should basically be outlawed because they sell parts to idiots in their garages.

While we're at it, why not make private ownership of vehicles illegal, and only allow manufacturer leases? If you're not allowed to make any repair to a car in the way you want, what's the point of ownership? You're just renting something that isn't yours.

 

[internalaudit]

You don't know my "mindset" because you don't know anything about me really.

My wife and I are both high income professionals and my rule is no more than 10% of gross income goes to cars. Most of the time it's more like 5%. Keep in mind that high earners can also spend more on something disposable like a car because things like mortgage, groceries, utilities, etc., are a much smaller percentage of their annual income.

I'm really not sure where your snark is coming from. You now want to talk about finances and what people can afford? I rebutted someone else who commented that your posts were coming from the angle of not really being able to afford the Model 3. Well, I was wrong because that does appear to be the case. You can't afford it without feeling uncomfortable about the outlay and you want others to validate your concerns.

I gave you legitimate reasons that people upgrade their cars more frequently than every 10 years and you were very dismissive of them. Average car buyer keeps a car about 4.5 years.

Since you seem to want to dive down this "I'm super financially responsible" rabbit hole..... the smartest thing you can do from a financial perspective is buy a 3 year old Honda Civic that is still under warranty and has low miles. Then drive it till it doesn't work any more.

You already said you wanted the latest and greatest with money being no object? What is there left to decipher? I don't care about how your mind works on other things.

We are talking about cars here.

 

[goto10]

A Tesla is not a commodity automobile. For the foreseeable future it's going to fail any reasonable test of "Is it worth the cost/risk?" when evaluating it against many other cars for TCO or most other objective criteria. The fanboys who think they will have zero maintenance and save thousands over their old ICE cars are kidding themselves. With few exceptions no one is going to save money by buying a Tesla. Not yet at least.

I bought a Model 3 because it has a feature set and performance profile that is superior to all other BEV options currently available according to my own subjective preferences and needs and because I can afford both the sticker price and the uncertainty around longer term reliability and maintenance costs.

There is a body of research suggesting that we get a much greater emotional return when we purchase experiences (go on a vacation, go out to a nice dinner) than when we purchase objects to own. For me, owning the Tesla is very much purchasing an experience. Every drive is a delight. We are planning road trips to interesting places just to get more time in the car, compounding the experiential value of the purchase.

All of the concerns listed are valid to one extent or another, but for me it's not just a cold calculation of financial ROI.

 

[voip-ninja]

You already said you wanted the latest and greatest with money being no object? What is there left to decipher? I don't care about how your mind works on other things.

We are talking about cars here.

Where did I say money is no object? I didn’t.

You are translating that I buy or lease a new car every few years into “money is no object”.

If money were no object then there would be a 911 Turbo in the garage instead of a bmw.

 

[slipnslider]

1. Cost - it will be the most expensive car I've ever bought. Options are way overpriced.

2. Tax credits - I won't buy if the full tax credit isn't still available.

3. The phone as key thing - stupidest part of an awesome car. Extremely short sighted. Imagine trying to get a 2028 phone to work with a 2018 tesla. Fob should be provided.

4. Touchscreen - it takes 3 swipes to change from FM radio to iphone audio. Moving cars are terrible places to interact with a touchscreen.

5. The glass roof - looked cool on the prototypes, but in production cars it's tinted too dark to be awesome. But would roast your head if it wasn't. This is why glass roofs haven't been done before. I hate that you have to get the glass roof to get the great stereo.

6. Reliability - not expecting it to be perfect, but I am expecting service centers to be totally overwhelmed creating bad backlogs.

7. Out-of-warranty repair costs - I'm hoping to keep the car a long time, and tesla repairs are expensive and the long term durability is unproven.

 

[slipnslider]

If that's true, count me in as the 1% who wouldn't buy the head-up display option. I thought similarly during the reveal: "oh man, the final version must have a HUD." And when it didn't, I was like, "hmm not sure if...." But now that I'm driving it, I get it. It's the most unnecessary thing ever.

It's not as necessary as I thought, but it would be nice if there were a better way to display turn signal indicators, high beam indicators, and next nav instruction for the driver.