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FOR WANT; Model S P85 $50k
- Thread starter FreeOfPge
- Start date
ipdamages
Roadster Sport 835
It's funny how many of the posts here are by people who fail to understand that the OP's post is genuine and interesting. It is an offer that he/she is making now (though he/she recognizes that it is early), understanding that it will not likely be one on which people will take him up for years. But there will come a time when lots of people would like to sell their "mint condition P85" with a healthy number of miles for $50K. Look at Roadster prices. You can get a 2011 for about 60% of its original price.
I am almost certain that there will be a P85 sold for $50K before Gen 3 is released. That's still about 3.5 years from now. Some people are really driving their cars and have more than 10K miles on them in less than half a year, whereas the Tesla 50% guarantee surely has mileage limits that will be exceeded by people putting lots of miles on their cars. 100 miles per work day = about 25,000 miles per year x 3.5 years = 87,500 miles. Add a few door dings and oopsie marks on the bumpers, a little curb rash just for fun, and maybe the interior has a few marks from the five rugrats that have been engaged in a little horse-play, and bada bing, $50K. I forecast end of 2015 and we will see a P85 go for $50K. Current effective price is $88.6K after the $7,500 tax incentive (for a stripped version), so a minimally adorned one would be low-mid $90s. As of today the premium on used cars is gone (and a new "quasi-demo" can be purchased with almost no wait), and sellers are generally taking a small haircut in the resale market.
So my bet is on the P85, like the other respondents with a real answer.
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
Hey everyone, here's a quick update: It would appear the Gen III (now model III) will be available late in 2017, three years from now - and guessing there's a 50/50/50k chance of purchasing a decent P85 for $50K by then. However, I could not wait a minute longer and purchased a gently used P85 for $94k last weekend! Nonetheless, I'm still wondering if once available, a brand new, fully loaded Model III will sell for more/less than a used P85....
Adm
Active Member
Not very tasteful to use this picture. Two people died in that Honda. I think you could have found another picture using Google for 20 seconds.
green1
Active Member
Based on Elon's stated guess, the Model S was expected to depreciate at roughly the same rate as the Mercedes S class (and the buyback guarantee was originally built around that premise) By that standard, I expect to see a decent 85kWh S in decent shape, 5 years old, for about 40-50k (Canadian figures, probably 30-40k in the US) making a 5 year old MS quite competitive with a brand new Model 3 (especially once you add in various add-ons, few people will want the most basic Model 3, just like few people buy the base MS)
That said, I'm not sure the prices really are falling at quite that rate due to how long the wait is for a new MS. If that comes down, the prices of used vehicles should too.
True, the red herring is that foreign demand (for a used MS) is off the charts and it's likely to remain that way for several years; even with higher production rates. If foreign demand remains high, and there is no reason to believe it will not, MS will continue to enjoy a higher than normal resale value.
I have 54k on my P85. But you're outta your mind if you think I'm going to sell a $115k 18 month old car for $50k. There's one that just sold on ebay last week that had 48.7k miles on it and it sold for $85k. I wouldn't sell mine for under $90k.
green1
Active Member
Of course what you just said doesn't change anything, that's now, not 2 years from now which is what he's asking. In 2 years you could buy a 4 year old Model S, and that will lower the cost some as well. if you $115,000 car is now worth $85,000-90,000 then it's already diminished by $25,000-$30,000 all he's asking for is another $35,000-40,000 when the car is more than double it's current age. Personally I think that's a bit optimistic on his part, but certainly not outside the realm of being realistic.
Well now with the unlimited mile 8 year drive train warranty that seriously increases the resale value. His request is wayy in la la land. Anyone who sells a MS for that kind of diminished value is a complete idiot. That old ways of valuing used cars don't apply to the MS.
green1
Active Member
So are you saying that Tesla will stop innovating, and there's nothing new people will want on a new car?
The ONLY way prices don't drop for used vehicles is if there's no reason to buy new. I'm betting the new cars will be even better, which will drive down the price of the old ones.
Of course they will be better but unlike any other car you will always have the latest software,a perfomance which i am sure even in 10 years will be above the standard by then PLUS you have an unlimited miles warranty on the heart of the car PLUS the drivetrain has almost no moving parts and will most likely go 1 million miles. So the used car price will depend on what else you get for you money. If an Audi A8 goes for 50k, I expect the Tesla to go for 70k.
I am also in the 40k+ miles club, the lowest offer I woul take is around 85k. If it has 100k I might accept 80k.
reset clock...+ add miles to car
80k mi for $50k maybe in 2 years. w/ out a extended warranty
+ no options other than P
and AWD model S available
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
There are plenty of other pricey things that can go wrong with an S and decrease the resale value even with an 8-year powertrain warranty. To complicate matters, there's no FSM that I'm aware of and parts seem to be $$$.
The resale value in a few years will be a function of that as well as the reduction in costs of other EVs from Tesla and other manufacturers.
kuttakamina
Member
Not that far fetched. By early 2015, the ModelS fever will have subsided and prices of used ModelS's will come to realistic levels.
Here are some things to consider that will lower the demand for Model S's
- Tax benefits in Norway will expire, which is currently it's biggest market.
- Tax benefits in USA will expire later in 2015.
- Model X will divert attention, and so will Model 3 (people will smaller budgets will wait, rather than stretch).
- Other manufacturers with their PHEV's will offer viable alternatives for literally half the price.
- Wildcard - China demand may compensate for all this. But China has their own EV manufacturers who may come up with something far cheaper for the chinese customer.
Finally, people will begin to come to their senses, and the false cloud of "Model S is a perfect car" will disperse.
Here are some things about Model S that are not perfect,
- Repairs and body work are extremely expensive. Insurance companies are only beginning to appreciate the risk there, and this will drive up the insurance costs of Model S also (already happening).... btw Tesla Roadster insurance was a joke for the same reason.
- It is a very big car and very wide. You will get dings, and every now and then you will back into a pole. So you will need that expensive insurance with low deductible (or pay out of pocket). Also, in case of repairs, the car sits waiting for parts a lot longer than since only Tesla can manufacture the replacement panels. So factor in rental costs also.
- The interiors in a $50K Acura are far superior than a Model S. Seriously, next time you sit in a Model S, photoshop the LCD screen out, and what you have are interiors comparable to a Honda Civic.
- The car, esp. the 21" wheels, eats tires. This depends on how you drive of course.
- The car requires fewer trips to the dealer (no oil changes), but the trips are expensive, unless you buy an expensive maint. plan. ahead of time.
- And the car has reliability issues, like any other car. What a shock, it's just a car.
- Plus, there are some imperfections, the seats aren't the best, the sunshade is tiny, and getting in and out of the car, you bump around the edges. Old farts have money to afford Model S's, and Old farts prefer the egress of a Mercedes S class (or similar). Also Old farts don't like digital LCD screens. What you are seeing now, is the initial hype/newness. It will subside.
Plus, a lot of those who spend $100K on a new car, will have another $100K in 2-3 years to spend on the next toy.
So early 2015, you will see 2012 Model S's with 20-30K miles for around 50K.
Early 2015 is just a few months away
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