I think it's unavoidable, and if that reality forms any part of Tesla's planning process then they're fools. Your next generation product will cannibalize sales, but you're much better off stealing your own customers by giving them a product they like more than letting someone else take them from you. Remember Lotus 1-2-3? While it still ruled the roost Lotus had a remarkable new spreadsheet called Improv that they axed to keep their customers from abandoning their aging flagship product. So their customers moved to Excel instead.
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I think it's unavoidable, and if that reality forms any part of Tesla's planning process then they're fools. Your next generation product will cannibalize sales, but you're much better off stealing your own customers by giving them a product they like more than letting someone else take them from you. Remember Lotus 1-2-3? While it still ruled the roost Lotus had a remarkable new spreadsheet called Improv that they axed to keep their customers from abandoning their aging flagship product. So their customers moved to Excel instead.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There is a difference between killing a product completely and delaying a release. I think all automakers pretty much delay offering features and probably some models if they think it might interfere with sales of existing products. One might look at Toyota's avoidance of pushing a real EV in volume because they know it will take sales from their hybrid line in which they have a huge investment. Toyota could have made a very efficient EV in house out of the Prius and it probably would have outsold the LEAF, but they chose not to. I'm not saying Tesla is necessarily doing this but it might be part of the equation. The other side of it is if they wait too long they might lose G3 sales to used Model S's hitting the market.
Laumb
smrtass.
Toyota actually said last year that they have a 100% developet EV iQ, but doesnt want to release it because they want to go with hybrids, as they think the market isnt filled yet.
William13
Active Member
Gen 3 won't be until 2017. X is next then a two door or convertible or roadster on current platform. The need profits to engineer the Gen 3 and better/cheaper batteries to meet the price point.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Norbert
TSLA will win
While the Gen3 will probably replace a larger amount of Model S than typical for such a situation, since Model S is the least expensive 200+ mile pure EV so far, I think there is also another side to it, or two:
- The Gen 3 will attract (even) more attention, and pull more people into Tesla stores and onto the Tesla website, thus also generating more Model S sales.
- The larger volumes will allow Tesla to get better supplier prices, for example for battery cells where Tesla has said recently that this makes a significant difference. So Gen 3 will help reduce the cost of Model S. (And it will help with shared R&D etc.)
- The Gen 3 will attract (even) more attention, and pull more people into Tesla stores and onto the Tesla website, thus also generating more Model S sales.
- The larger volumes will allow Tesla to get better supplier prices, for example for battery cells where Tesla has said recently that this makes a significant difference. So Gen 3 will help reduce the cost of Model S. (And it will help with shared R&D etc.)
Showing the new platform and a prototype off in 2015 is one thing but I don't expect Gen3 off the assembly line until 2016.
Toyota is the largest carmaker in the world, and plays a different game than a startup that needs to grow and generate as much profit as possible, as soon as possible. Tesla grows or dies... Toyota can be more circumspect in terms of profit maximization on an existing product.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
The iQ EV is just a strawman to allow them to say "we tried but no one wants to buy EVs". They are changing that car to lease only, but it's predictable since the iQ itself is a niche car that doesn't sell well in the US. The EV version is a niche within a niche. I think JRP3's main point is that if they built a Prius EV (just like they built a fuel cell Prius concept, the FCVR) there is no reason why it can't outsell the Leaf. Of course they don't want to since it'll be less profitable than a normal Prius. But they still need the smoke and mirrors to keep their image.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
My reference for the 2016-2017 dates came from this article http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/autoshow-tesla-profit-idUSL2N0AJ0GX20130114
Excellent points, Norbert, to which I would add:
- To support high-volume Gen 3 sales, Tesla will build more
> service centers
> superchargers
Both of which will make the Model S more attractive to buyers, too. While there will be some people who go "down market" in the Tesla line, I think the overall effect of having a broader lineup of cars will be accretive (given Tesla's small market share).
You would be surprised how often adding a lower-end product increases your sales of the higher-end product. People are brought in by the lower price and then talk themselves up to the higher-end product.
(Probably the "experts" know all about this effect, but I discovered it by accident. We added a low-end version of our software product, and the resulting increase in sales were mainly of the original, more expensive version. Go figure.)
(Probably the "experts" know all about this effect, but I discovered it by accident. We added a low-end version of our software product, and the resulting increase in sales were mainly of the original, more expensive version. Go figure.)
There will also be credibility added as Tesla brings out another car. There may be some hesitant to buy the S as the only car from a new manufacture, but a 2nd car makes the company more "real" and less likely to go away. Sales might go up on the S enough to equal the g3 cannibalism.
.. and Symphony and 123/G and ...
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40 -> 60 -> 85 -> 85P being an example of this
Yes, exactly. Tesla was surprised that such a large fraction went for 85P, but in my experience they shouldn't have been!
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
Part 4 of Mark Rogowsky's series is now up:
Tesla's BMW 3-Series Fighter Just Might Be Your Next Car
Tesla's BMW 3-Series Fighter Just Might Be Your Next Car
GREAT piece. That Elon tweet quoted in the article: "$30k in 2013 $ (ie + inflation) w 200+ mile range w some really cool tech that we can't talk about yet." -- it really has Forbes' Mark Rogowsky (and me!) excited... it does seem as if Tesla's move from "niche to mainstream" will be a huge industry game changer in just a few short years... this article really looks to the future, Tesla is going to shake up the industry in a segment where mass/volume vehicles (like the Camry) reign. The fun is just beginning. :biggrin:
Mayhemm
Model S P85+ "Lola"
Personally, I would rather Tesla take their time and do this well, rather than biting off more than they can chew and running into QC issues.
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