Ford Decides to Double Production Plan for EVs

Ford announced this week a plan to double its electric vehicle production.

The company originally planned to build 300,000 units by 2023, but has ramped that number up to 600,000. Additionally, the company has secured a semiconductor contract with GlobalFoundries to support the manufacturing plan.

Chief Executive Jim Farley tweeted his excitement for the plan, which is to become the second-largest EV producer in the world “within the next couple years.” Farley expects the Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and E-Transit van to lead the company’s sales of EVs. He also hinted that the company has plans for additional electric models.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1461405992055361541

https://twitter.com/x/status/1461405995444363268

While doubling production to 600,000 EVs is a strong commitment it represents just 10% of Ford’s current production. The company has said it hopes for EVs to make up 40% of sales by 2030.

 

[Ogre]

I realize I am oversimplifying but I think one would be naive to think that a company like Toyota can't compete. In fact their strategy of offering ICE, hybrids and BEVs with a slower transition to BEV over time is pretty sound model for an incumbent. You have to remember that the majority of the population can't afford a $50k+ Tesla and not everyone lives in a single family home with a 50amp circuit in the garage. At these prices this will be a very slow transition to BEV. We need BEV Toyota Corollas and Honda Civics.

This would have been a great strategy if they’d continued on that path over the previous 10 years. That isn’t what they did though. What they actually did is start making hybrids, then made zero effort to switch over to BEVs in spite of 10+ years of them being around. Then only after it became abundantly clear that the market was shifting fast announced a huge shift in priorities.

I’d love to see a eTaco. My last truck was a Tundra. Hopefully they get it online as quickly as you seem to think is possible. I am cynical about their chances, but I love the brand and their products.

 

[raptor5244]

It is interesting to read the comments at the end of the article above. Once you get outside the Tesla forums like this which are mostly comprised of die hard fans these are the typical responses to BEVs.

 

[Ogre]

The list here is getting a bit longer, which is great and in most part thanks to Tesla. This was their goal all along wasn't it? I remember Elon saying they didn't know of they would even produce EVs long term. They just wanted to kick start the market and drive the transition.

Future EVs: Every Electric Vehicle Coming Soon

These EVs are in various stages from concept to production, and perhaps a few may never see the light of day.

www.caranddriver.com

Tesla was legitimately worried that as soon as the Model S released everyone would see the potential of EVs and start making them… 9+ years ago when the Model S started for sale.

I’m sure if big auto had transitioned after the Model S launch, Tesla would have pivoted. But now they have a massive brand and 10s of billions invested in car factories. It’s a little late for that.

 

[raptor5244]

This would have been a great strategy if they’d continued on that path over the previous 10 years. That isn’t what they did though. What they actually did is start making hybrids, then made zero effort to switch over to BEVs in spite of 10+ years of them being around. Then only after it became abundantly clear that the market was shifting fast announced a huge shift in priorities.

I’d love to see a eTaco. My last truck was a Tundra. Hopefully they get it online as quickly as you seem to think is possible. I am cynical about their chances, but I love the brand and their products.

I was surprised to see Toyota hold out so long on BEVs but I think their perspective is that the power grid can't support 100% BEVs and Hybrid is a better solution. I am not a fan of hybrids, more complicated, etc. but the benefits are pretty compelling in a lost of use cases.

 

[rob1987]

Which it’s why it’s the time to buy desirable ICE vehicles and not EV’s

It will be so great to own an ICE when EV adoption rate gets so high efficiency of scale in the gasoline distribution network start to dry up and gas goes to $30/gallon, probably sold not at a pump but down the back of the automotive section in Walmart.

 

[raptor5244]

Tesla was legitimately worried that as soon as the Model S released everyone would see the potential of EVs and start making them… 9+ years ago when the Model S started for sale.

Yeah, too expensive. It was the Model 3 pricing that was the tipping point. They built a BEV that looks actually looks decent, has great tech and performance at a fairly attainable price point. I think that is what the rest of the market was waiting for. Traditional ICE automakers can't just switch production without a strong market without risking going out of business. Tesla has created this shift in market and the auto industry was long overdue. Interesting times ahead. We lived through the Internet revolution and now we will witness a revolution in the auto industry.

 

[raptor5244]

It will be so great to own an ICE when EV adoption rate gets so high efficiency of scale in the gasoline distribution network start to dry up and gas goes to $30/gallon, probably sold not at a pump but down the back of the automotive section in Walmart.

Maybe someday but I may be dead by then. Check out this article.

"Automakers are now shifting to electric vehicles, which could make up one-quarter of new sales by 2035, analysts project. But at that point, only 13 percent of vehicles on the road would be electric. Why? Older cars can stick around for a decade or two."

"Even in 2050, when electric vehicles are projected to make up 60 percent of new sales, the majority of vehicles on the road would still run on gasoline. Slow fleet turnover is a major challenge for climate policy."

Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road? (Published 2021)

A new car sold today can last a decade or two before retiring. This “fleet turnover” poses a major challenge for climate policy.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Ogre]

Maybe someday but I may be dead by then. Check out this article.

"Automakers are now shifting to electric vehicles, which could make up one-quarter of new sales by 2035, analysts project. But at that point, only 13 percent of vehicles on the road would be electric. Why? Older cars can stick around for a decade or two."

These are the same analysts who have underestimated Tesla’s growth and growth of the EV industry every year for the past 5 years or more.

Paradigm shifts follow an S curve, not a linear progression. EVs will be selling as fast as they can make them every year until ICE cars are completely gone. By 2035 BEVs will be closer to 95% of the market than 25%. (I suspect it will be well before then myself)

Wright’s Law predicts that the cost of lithium ion batteries is going to continue to drop as the number of EVs on the road increases. Pushing the cost of EVs down way below the cost of ICE vehicles. EVs are already approaching parity with cost of ICE vehicles. Once the cost of EVs is below the cost of ICE, it’ll be game over.

Existing cars will take longer to cycle out, but they will get a lot less use than EVs. People and businesses who use cars and trucks the most will have the most incentive to switch. People who have one of each type of vehicle will prefer the EV.

 

[WhiteWi]

These are the same analysts who have underestimated Tesla’s growth and growth of the EV industry every year for the past 5 years or more.

Paradigm shifts follow an S curve, not a linear progression. EVs will be selling as fast as they can make them every year until ICE cars are completely gone. By 2035 BEVs will be closer to 95% of the market than 25%. (I suspect it will be well before then myself)

Wright’s Law predicts that the cost of lithium ion batteries is going to continue to drop as the number of EVs on the road increases. Pushing the cost of EVs down way below the cost of ICE vehicles. EVs are already approaching parity with cost of ICE vehicles. Once the cost of EVs is below the cost of ICE, it’ll be game over.

Existing cars will take longer to cycle out, but they will get a lot less use than EVs. People and businesses who use cars and trucks the most will have the most incentive to switch. People who have one of each type of vehicle will prefer the EV.

Great point. I had brand new SUV and we got my wife Model 3. That was it. I couldn’t make myself drive that slow and boring SUV and wanted Tesla for myself. So I traded my one year old SUV for another Tesla. Now I have Y on order and Cybertruck. No way will I ever buy ice car.

 

[raptor5244]

These are the same analysts who have underestimated Tesla’s growth and growth of the EV industry every year for the past 5 years or more.

Paradigm shifts follow an S curve, not a linear progression. EVs will be selling as fast as they can make them every year until ICE cars are completely gone. By 2035 BEVs will be closer to 95% of the market than 25%. (I suspect it will be well before then myself)

Wright’s Law predicts that the cost of lithium ion batteries is going to continue to drop as the number of EVs on the road increases. Pushing the cost of EVs down way below the cost of ICE vehicles. EVs are already approaching parity with cost of ICE vehicles. Once the cost of EVs is below the cost of ICE, it’ll be game over.

Existing cars will take longer to cycle out, but they will get a lot less use than EVs. People and businesses who use cars and trucks the most will have the most incentive to switch. People who have one of each type of vehicle will prefer the EV.

What are your thoughts on battery longevity and resale? I do worry about the longevity of these batteries. I am not going to lie, I don't feel very comfortable owning my Model 3 once it is out is out of the bumper to bumper 4 year warranty yet alone at 100k miles. Even though EVs are simpler, less moving parts, etc. the cost a $12-$15k battery replacement is horrifying. I am curious what a 80k mile Model 3 SR+ will even be worth? With ICE based vehicles you feel like you can keep nursing them along. With BEV, once that battery goes, it may be game over especially for a 2nd or 3rd hand owner as they may not have the funds for a new battery. Will there be refurbished batteries with some sort of warranty? Will they start replacing bad cells? I think we have to solve for the used EV market as well, which will have its own challenges.

 

[T3SLAROD]

It will be so great to own an ICE when EV adoption rate gets so high efficiency of scale in the gasoline distribution network start to dry up and gas goes to $30/gallon, probably sold not at a pump but down the back of the automotive section in Walmart.

$30 $40 $50, Walmart, Kmart, Dollar Tree doesn't matter......that desirable ICE will be worth more than any first generation Tesla.

 

[rob1987]

My guess is battery technology and price will improve at such a rate that before I would need a replacement due to a failure I will want a replacement to upgrade to something with more range/better chemistry/faster charging. Tesla patents are open source so even the 4680s could be copied by aftermarket third parties and sold as an upgrade by the time the 4 years on my battery warranty are up.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

I think their perspective is that the power grid can't support 100% BEVs and Hybrid is a better solution.

Maybe, but then again maybe the opposite. Perhaps in the future instead of daytime high usage and nighttime low usage the grid use will be more evenly distributed as people charge mostly overnight

 

[Ogre]

What are your thoughts on battery longevity and resale? I do worry about the longevity of these batteries. I am not going to lie, I don't feel very comfortable owning my Model 3 once it is out is out of the bumper to bumper 4 year warranty yet alone at 100k miles. Even though EVs are simpler, less moving parts, etc. the cost a $12-$15k battery replacement is horrifying. I am curious what a 80k mile Model 3 SR+ will even be worth? With ICE based vehicles you feel like you can keep nursing them along. With BEV, once that battery goes, it may be game over especially for a 2nd or 3rd hand owner as they may not have the funds for a new battery. Will there be refurbished batteries with some sort of warranty? Will they start replacing bad cells? I think we have to solve for the used EV market as well, which will have its own challenges.

Tesla batteries have a good track record of lasting 100s of thousands of miles.

One thing which is kind of nice about batteries is they tend to just get slowly less and less efficient over them then they can get reused, then eventually recycled. Just drive it until the range is too short for your use, then sell it and get another one. Someone will be happy to get a 10 year old Model 3 with 280 miles of range (~20% range loss).

 

[WhiteWi]

Maybe, but then again maybe the opposite. Perhaps in the future instead of daytime high usage and nighttime low usage the grid use will be more evenly distributed as people charge mostly overnight

Or more people will go solar to offset the cost of electricity to charge their EVs and by doing that will ease load on the grid!

 

[Ogre]

Maybe, but then again maybe the opposite. Perhaps in the future instead of daytime high usage and nighttime low usage the grid use will be more evenly distributed as people charge mostly overnight

We are definitely in the part of the adoption curve where things are still getting better very quickly. In 5 years cars are guaranteed to be much better and likely less expensive too.

 

[raptor5244]

We are definitely in the part of the adoption curve where things are still getting better very quickly. In 5 years cars are guaranteed to be much better and likely less expensive too.

I hope so but inflation, supply chain issues and it looks like EV tax credits/incentives are not gonna happen...

 

[alexgr]

Would you agree that the battery technology was not ready 13 years ago? Maybe if you want to charge every 30-40 miles. Just not practical at that time.

My point is not the technology. My point is that the PR campaign of the legacy OEMs were the same 13 years ago as they are now. They keep promising 3, 5, 20, 30 new EVs coming to the market really-really soon, a lot of cheap high quality EVs will be on the market, and Tesla sales will crash. 13+ years and counting. It seems that Tesla and Musk are surprised themselves how bad are legacy OEMs in making EVs.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

. . . AND Tesla are (allegedly) coming out with the "affordable" Model 2

Whatever it morphs into, it'll be a direct competition for the points made above regarding affordability

also the lack of Tax credits/incentives doesn't appear to be throttling the current (lol) demand for EVs

 

[EVer Hopeful]

Existing cars will take longer to cycle out

This too I'd call into question

Let's not forget that a lot of old ICE vehicles were traded in for (unfortunately) newer ICE vehicles, under the various Cash For Clunkers programs that were in effect. It's quite possible that there'd be a similar sort of program that would operate for ICE to EV transfers


(depending of course on which administration was in power and how big the bribes from the legacy auto makers were)